Article Posted from Share Prophets Today20 Feb 2020 21:26
I wondered how long it would take before people started trying to cash in off of the back of coronavirus and pushing shares in small AIM listed companies that are supposedly going to make a fortune from this outbreak.
Twitter has been full of people pushing a small bio-tech company called Novacyt (NCYT), and some of the tweets being used to try to pump up the share price have been disgraceful, with some even urging people to invest to save humanity and claiming that it is our moral duty to do so! Others seem to be focused on just how fantastic it will be if millions of people end up needing to be tested for the virus, as Novacyt has a test for it where results only take a couple of hours.
Prior to the excitement and an initial rise on the Thursday, it had been trading at around 15p, and had just released its full year trading update, and within it emphasised that it was having trouble fulfilling orders due to working capital constraints. So just how it is planning to suddenly produce huge numbers of tests is anyone’s guess! It also states that it will take most of H1 2020 to fully restore its manufacturing operations. This is from a company that had orders of €1.6 million but couldn’t deliver €1.3 million worth of them as at the end of last year. It did have cash of €1.8 million at the end of 2019, but a fair bit of that will go towards restoring its manufacturing.
Its financial results don’t exactly inspire confidence either, as revenue for H1 2019 stood at €7.2 million but it still managed to record a net loss of nearly €2 million for the six months, or just over €1.2 million if you strip out the discontinued operations.
The balance sheet doesn’t exactly make for pretty reading either, and even with the recent €5 million four-year term loan being used to reduce some of its more pressing liabilities, it will still have a minimum of €10.8 million of debt by my calculations – based on what the company has stated about what debt the new loan was used to repay, with €2 million of it being kept for working capital.
The fact that it had €1.8 million at the end of 2019 suggest that the rate of cash burn isn’t exactly slowing down either– despite at the same time being unable to fill orders – as if we look back, it had €600,000 in cash at the end of June 2019, and it then sold Clinical Lab for £400,000 (around €465,000), followed by NOVAprep for €400,000. So in total, including the money held back from the loan for working capital, that makes over €3.46 million, and it ended the period with €1.8 million, and so burnt through over €1.6 million in the last six months of the year.
That hardly shows the company to be in a strong position to meet the demand of incoming orders for tests, even if you actually believe that it is suddenly going to start selling huge numbers of them.
I have no doubt that there will be further attempts to pump this company and the share price will probably be volatile with a chance of further spikes £200,000 worth of ord