Member Info for metis20

Bid price - US spot - via Kitco - has just moved back up again - if it stays there today then closing gross basket price/oz will be a record according to my spreadsheet.
http://m.kitco.com/precious-metals/Rhodium.html

Basket value breakdown now approx 1/1.1/4.9 for Pd/Pt/Rh

That infill spacing is approaching what is apparently regarded as a dense grid.

A 2-D grid is considered dense if the line spacing is less than about 1/4 mile [1,320 ft; 400 m].)

The advantages of 3-D include the following:

True structural dip (2-D may give apparent dip)
More and better stratigraphic information
Map view of reservoir properties
Much better areal mapping of fault patterns and connections and delineation of reservoir blocks
Better lateral resolution (2-D suffers from a cross-line smearing, or Fresnel zone, problem)

stoodio - have just reworked my Q3 average gross basket using kitco bid prices and also referring to the Q2 2021 average of $3323/oz.
The very good news is that I come out with a figure very close to your figure of around $4450/oz
Thanks for pointing me in the right direction!

Could well be stoodio that my gross average basket price is so much lower than your estimate because I am using far too low a bid price for rhodium - I have been using Baird prices. Will move to
Kitco http://m.kitco.com/precious-metals/Rhodium.html
and see what estimate my spread sheet produces
Currently Kitco is $26200/28200 whereas Baird is $21500/25500!

Thanks stoodio - is that average gross price, the approx price SLP are likely to get when they sell the PGMs in concentrate to smelters?
https://www.sylvaniaplatinum.com/core-business/sylvania-dump-operations

I hope you are correct stoodio - we shall know for sure by the end of the month.

fwiw my spreadsheet suggests an average gross basket price for the last quarter of $3150. That compares favourably with $3184 for HY1 2021, which produced a net profit of $40.5mn and the windfall divi.
The $3150 estimate does not take into account the recent price rises in those by-products Ru and Ir
The previous highest half year net profit was HY1 2020 at $23.9mn

Laura at 4:40 on https://total-market-solutions.com/2021/03/helium-one-2/
"..the infill will give us much greater coverage over those prospects and enable us to have greater confidence in our well placings to ensure we drill into the traps in an optimal updip position…"

Presumably the purpose of the current seismic programme is to increase the chance of drilling success.

Odd - this extract from a HE1 initiation note has been removed from this board
Reasonable risk but very low cost for frontier exploration – This is frontier exploration but Helium One has a number of independent shots at goal, there is plenty of encouragement from surface and geological data obtained to date, and the actual exploration cost is very low in comparison to targeting similar-sized value in oil and gas exploration. In aggregate the competent person reports see 10-14% chance of success for the 2021 target prospects, although each prospect has multiple targets. However, HE1 sees around a 20% geological chance of success. Source and migration have been derisked by surface seeps, the reservoir has been proved by previous wells and the trap is data limited by 2D seismic and gravity gradient data. High relief structures are imaged by both geophysical data sets. The biggest risk surrounds seal but sealing units are known in the geology.

https://cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1funjk8-Helium_One_Initiation_note_Final_14_Dec_2020_RB2.pdf
Reasonable risk but very low cost for frontier exploration – This is frontier exploration but Helium One has a number of independent shots at goal, there is plenty of encouragement from surface and geological data obtained to date, and the actual exploration cost is very low in comparison to targeting similar-sized value in oil and gas exploration. In aggregate the competent person reports see 10-14% chance of success for the 2021 target prospects, although each prospect has multiple targets. However, HE1 sees around a 20% geological chance of success. Source and migration have been derisked by surface seeps, the reservoir has been proved by previous wells and the trap is data limited by 2D seismic and gravity gradient data. High relief structures are imaged by both geophysical data sets. The biggest risk surrounds seal but sealing units are known in the geology.

Reasonable risk but very low cost for frontier exploration – This is
frontier exploration but Helium One has a number of independent shots at goal,
there is plenty of encouragement from surface and geological data obtained to
date, and the actual exploration cost is very low in comparison to targeting
similar-sized value in oil and gas exploration. In aggregate the competent person
reports see 10-14% chance of success for the 2021 target prospects, although each
prospect has multiple targets. However, HE1 sees around a 20% geological chance
of success. Source and migration have been derisked by surface seeps, the
reservoir has been proved by previous wells and the trap is data limited by 2D
seismic and gravity gradient data. High relief structures are imaged by both
geophysical data sets. The biggest risk surrounds seal but sealing units are known
in the geology.

above from
https://cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1funjk8-Helium_One_Initiation_note_Final_14_Dec_2020_RB2.pdf

Is this the Hannam research note you refer to?
http://www.helium-one.com/analyst-research/
If so, where is the statement about % chance of success?

Since that sp max on 10th March of 132.5p the sp has dropped by about 14%.
However, the 4E basket price on 10th March virtually was the same as yesterday.

Africa Asia Capital reducing -
11th Jan RNS 18.7% down to 18% 16th Feb RNS 18% down to 15.9% 9th March RNS 15.9%% down to 13.9%

May be of interest -

https://www.gasworld.com/waiting-for-amur-whats-next-for-helium-markets/2020612.article   8 March 2021
http://www.helium-one.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/21-02-26-Helium-One-Presentation_Feb21.pdf   

from slide 7 of the second of these:

"Unrisked Prospective Recoverable Helium Resource (2U/P50) of 138Bcf. "  

Compare that with, from the first link: 

"While the precise timing of supply from Qatar 3 and Amur remains unclear, it seems likely that as much as 1 BCF of new capacity could enter the market later this year and close to 2 BCF of new supply could enter the market between now and the end of 2022."

http://www.helium-one.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/21-02-26-Helium-One-Presentation_Feb21.pdf

From slide 6 Feb 2021 Investor Presentation
Chinese average import price at $375/Mcf, up from avg $225/Mcf 3 years ago
Anecdotal reports of end users paying upwards of $40/l ($1,500/Mcf)
As lack of supply becomes apparent, primary helium stocks have averaged +650% over 12 months to Jan 2021

Thanks Turkas - I should have paid more attention...
Any thoughts on how to access an up to date liquid helium price chart?

Does LSE usually take 40 mins to post a message? Hence the double posting of the last two messages...