Member Info for Metamorphosis84

I should imagine that new contract wins within the construction division will come with little fanfare, given that they have admitted it to be full of liabilities.

It does look like it is settling down and has held ok after Ex-divi. Another a statement regarding Indivior has been reassuring.

Anyway conversation is conversation isn't it? And thats what we are doing, conversing, which is what you want, so just leave it at that.
Might pop back in to offer my expert analysis, might not.
Tata for now.

Ha ha you are having a laugh right? So the other day you tell people to switch off and enjoy Easter. Then you continue to post all over Easter? Hmmm Then you say that there is no reason to post here, that was this morning. Now you say you are encouraging discussion? No, to the closer observer, this is a very subtle tactic to shut people down.

Simmer down. You don't get it do you, you don't get to demand that everyone gives their reason for posting, be it positive, negative or neutral. But you cannot help yourself.

I see Knigel has popped up here with his shiny sherrif badge, telling people who can and can't post. Basically only those with long positions should be allowed to post, right? Any any new posters are to be held in suspicion?
Ignore him.
He's a hypocrite, thinks you only post if you are invested (and he gets to decide what 'invested' means. Yet he himself posts on other boards where he isn't invested.
Dear oh dear.

I tend to agree actually, although this is the logical conclusion to a de-regulated market that allows PI's to trade in shares.
Personally, I think it would be healthier all around for Ceo's, FD's , Chairmen and other execs to be prevented from holding senior positions in either listed or private companies, should they be involved in administration/insolvency/bankruptcy.

Its all very well bemoaning this, but at the AGM, which was only a couple of months ago, he was voted back on. He got 55% out of those who voted.
33% of those entitled to vote didn't even bother, its a huge chunk. If they had bothered, it would have tipped the scales.
I bet that 33% were PI's. They really should consider taking a more active role, rather than just speculating and then moaning when it doesn't go their way.

It does look like 550 has been broken. Is this going to somehow gap up, or are should we be looking at a new support level.
The next as I can see is between 275 established in December 2008 and 290 in December 2009.
It seems this profit warning has had more catastrophic consequences than I first thought.

Gabster has it about right.

Whats another one, oh yeah, if something is not going to be in line with expectations, simply change the expectations!

550 certainly an historical support level. Would probably have waited to see if it would hold first. Good luck!

"I really enjoy investing in shares but it is easy to be put off when it feels like you are up against a rigged casino.

Soon the only safe time to buy is when directors make a big purchase but I’ve even seen this backfire"

It feels that way a lot at the moment. On your point re director buys, I would advise caution, at Irv, CVI and many others, Directors bought as the SPs collapsed.

"In fact the drop pre RNS is about the right drop for the news in my opinion early 700s being fair value. It feels like it has dropped twice, once in anticipation of news and again on the news."
Yes, that is a good observation and I smell a rat. Big red flag when a sell off takes place before the bad news is released.

He's having a stormer isn't he. 13th February, as Group Finance Director, signs off (presumably) the 2018 HY results, with pretty positive forecast for 2019. 26th March gets promoted to the top job. 16th April, issues profit warning and admits the figures given 2 months ago were out to the tune of £40m. Bravo.

Skeletor, fair play on you stance, but you posted this a few weeks ago: "What do the people selling know?1 Apr '19 That I don't....? This has been a crazy sell off. Fine on the days when all Brexit sensitive stocks are suffering but then continues to suffer on the supposed "recovery days". This sell off is either the biggest buying opportunity or a sign to sell up and get out before a terrible RNS drops...?" Is this not the terrible RNS you predicted?

That may be their intention, but they have a reported order book on the construction division of £3.3bn. That is huge. That sort of order book will last years, so how are they going to reduce it? Reducing the volume is going to leave the company as a much smaller (but healthier business), which by extension means a smaller market cap.

" Feels like a bargain to me. Be very interested to hear counter arguments to the above." Hi Skeletor, i guess the counter arguments would go something along these lines: -trust in the industry. Kier, Interserve and Carillion all "felt like bargains at the time" - inability to get on top of problem projects. First Aberdeen, which kept getting revised upwards, no Queensferry, what will that end up as? -Timing, the half year results to 31st December were announced on 14th Feb. No mention of these problems. Then suddenly only two months later, all these 'exceptionals' appear. -strategy, the construction division works on margins of 0.9% which is alarming. Presumably, they are going to restructure to try and win work at higher margins. But if all their compettitors are doing the same, how will they achieve this? -net debt, apparantly this won't effect 'average net debt' but what does that mean in real terms.

I suppose with Kier their nasties came out last year, with Galliford, they have said there are nasties and more will be revealed in May. Uncertainty.

The RNS- they have announced an operational review, which they expect will result in lower operational profitability. We used to call it a profit warning in the old days.

I did say before Christmas, lets see what the true Aberdeen Bypass impact will be. Now we know. Another construction firm in trouble.