Member Info for Metamorphosis84

He should take own advice:

"All I will say is that it's not advisable to make promises because 9/10 times you will break it in a BB thread that has your interest. Although there is one thread on LSE were I promised not to post on this year and so far have managed it."

What a hypocrite! And a bully boy to boot.

Wow, great post, so good we get to see it three times!

The fella has no self restraint! Couldn't even go a day the poor soul.

Having read the article and with no mention whatsoever of shareholders...... it appears that SPD are coming at this from the point of view of them as creditors (apparantly owed 500k by Debenhams) *NOT* as shareholders!
They are objecting to the CVA, are they not? And is this a CVA that took place *before* or *after* liquidation of the Old Debenhams into Newco? It reads to me as being as after.

By the by. There is nothing whatsoever in this article that suggests that shareholders are going to get anything here.

Quite so, vanity, nothing more.

As for dear Nigel, he says he won't be posting again. It must be killing him to see that this thread continues, but that he has imposed silence upon himself.
As welcome as this is, I have a feeling we have not heard the last from him. Such a sad case I am sure won't be able to help himself not to post again.
We shall see.

Hmm. Refer to my post last Tuesday 4/6/19. 11.12; "Speaking of the order book, look out for a stream of press releases telling us what work has been won.... just like IRV and CLLN."

You are quite right, short tracker shows holders of more than 0.5% so there may be more.

Have a good weekend yourself.

Hi Auson, according to shorttracker, the declared shorts sit at 5.32% As regards what is their target to close, depends on how liquid the funds are, if they see another, more lucrative target to direct their funds. In my view I would expect them to close up in the teens or single digits or at zero, if the debt isn't dealt with. If news comes than there is a plan for debt and for refinancing, then much higher. The reason I think this is that these shorters usually sit it out for a long time and in this case declared shorting activity increased on 3rd and 4th June, they must see that more gains are to be made, on top of the fall that has already taken place.

Think thats a no.

Lights out on this one.

The only way anyone can be offended my the term "mug punter" is if they identify as such, in which case, its really no offence at all.

Beg your pardon re the rns, Woodford until now has been a buyer but unsurprisingly he will be looking to de risk, I would have thought.

Auson, I know you like this share and you seem reasonable, but some of your posts are coming across as scoffing at predictions that the SP will fall further. I seems that buying activity from the likes of Woodford, Marshall etc will give support to the SP. But ultimately it doesn't deal with the debt problem.
Your track record is not great on this, back in March when I suggested this would drop below 300 your response was
"I don't think we will see sub 300"
So what makes you think your ability to predict the direction of the SP has improved since then? Given that since that was posted it has shed 57%.

"Future Proofing" sounds very much like "Fit For Growth" for anyone familiar with IRV
Spending £10m plus, to save how much, exactly?

Hi Auson, I don't generally give commentaries on what positions I open, be they long or short. 2 reasons, based on what goes through my mind whenever I see when someone posts "just bought or sold xxx shares here"
1. I don't believe you.
2. I don't care.
So on that basis, I practise what I preach and usually (there are a few exceptions) don't comment on my positions.

But re SP behaviours and shorting patterns, a couple of observations, with IRV the shorts closed nearly all their positions weeks before shares were suspended, they could have eeked a few more pence out of it, but ultimately didn't wait for zero. Debenhams on the other hand it appears that shorters generally stuck it out and even went long to hedge their bets.
Also worth mentioning these big hedgies don't always get in right. Coltrane for example, made a kings ransom shorting Carillion, but made a disastrous decision to go long on Interserve, going long on nearly 30% of shares.

Another observation is that only a few day traders have arrived at this BB. If their claims are to believed, they seem happy to take small percentage profits, which says to me that even day traders think there is a limit to how much this is going to spike in the short term.

Anyhow, regards the trajectory, the graph is very clear.

The long term and medium term trajectory puts this at somewhere around 0p equity value.

Furthermore, you talk about post adding value.
Well, trendfriends post added value but was met with such scorn as this:>"
If you are right with all this mumbo jumbo, then god help us all. Of course if everybody believes in graphs, & trends & act accordingly, then if will happen. ( self proclamation). Sounds like ponzi economics to me. This is a real company, not some crypto nonsense"

All very well for daniel to say that, if he is winning, but he isn't this share has been losing, so to be dismissive about someone's helpful advice is rude.

To then claim that pointing out this flaw is "rubbing salt in wounds" is equally rude.

No you're point is invalid.

You seem to be of the judgement that my post this morning was intended to: "rub salt in the wounds of individuals".

Indeed it is obvious that in both my posts so far today, the intention was to suggest than trading analysis should not be met with the scorn that it received here.

Cheers, I'll post as frequently, or infrequently as I like thanks. And I'll post what I like, be it an opinion or something else. With or without your approval buddy.

But seeing as you have decided to launch a personal attack, I'll give you a fact and opinion:

Fact: A contributor here has provided some Trading Analysis.
Opinion: I believe that dismissing this information is arrogant and a foolish mistake to make, especially when you have demonstrated over a long period of time to be misjudging entry points and have lost capital in a failing share.

Oh and one last thing, are you really stupid enough to think that any contributor to a BB has the ability to ramp or deramp a listed company with an mcap of 35bn?

Ciao for now.

Maybe trendfriend is offering some helpful analysis, the sort of charting that might have saved you from losing so much cash buying this dog of a share, had you taken it?

Yes what a beating they are taking, sp down 40% over 5 days, 54% over the month, 70% over 6 months 84% over the year.
Really suffering some

Why didn't you buy them yesterday, when they were cheaper?

Or is this the limit of your contribution?