Member Info for meoryou

Robins

I follow 3 other oil stocks in US( takes out £/$ movements).

Chevron is flat in last year.

Shell is up about 6% in last year

Exxon is up about 18%

However BP is down by about 9%.

So since they are meant to be following the same oil price,BP may at some time correct.

I accept they have different levels of exposure to the oil price, but would not think that should result in BP being the only one down in last year

Https://jpt.spe.org/q-a-giovanni-cristofoli-on-bp-solutions-transforming-challenges-into-opportunities-through-innovation-and-agility

Https://www.bp.com/en_az/azerbaijan/home/news/press-releases/SOCAR-and-bp-to-cooperate-on-new-energy-development-opportunities-globally.html

Hope you have a great day

PARIS, Sept 20 (Reuters) - Natural gas production has begun earlier than planned at Argentina's Fenix offshore field, French oil major TotalEnergies said on Friday.

The $700 million project, initially scheduled to begin operating in November, has a production capacity of 10 million cubic meters of natural gas per day, representing 8% of Argentina's total production.

The gas from the Fenix field off its southern coast is destined for domestic consumption, as Argentina seeks to reduce imports, deregulate local prices, promote energy investment and turn itself into a liquefied natural gas exporter.

TotalEnergies operates a quarter of Argentina's production, the most of any private company, with operations in the Vaca Muerta formation, the world's second-largest unconventional gas reserve, as well as other projects in Tierra del Fuego.

It has a 37.5% operating interest in Fenix, alongside BP's Pan American Sur with 25% and London-listed Harbour Energy, which purchased Wintershall Dea's upstream portfolio in December, which also has 37.5%. (Reporting by America Hernandez in Paris; Editing by Elaine Hardcastle and Alexander Smith)

PARIS, Sept 20 (Reuters) - Natural gas production has begun earlier than planned at Argentina's Fenix offshore field, French oil major TotalEnergies said on Friday.

The $700 million project, initially scheduled to begin operating in November, has a production capacity of 10 million cubic meters of natural gas per day, representing 8% of Argentina's total production.

The gas from the Fenix field off its southern coast is destined for domestic consumption, as Argentina seeks to reduce imports, deregulate local prices, promote energy investment and turn itself into a liquefied natural gas exporter.

TotalEnergies operates a quarter of Argentina's production, the most of any private company, with operations in the Vaca Muerta formation, the world's second-largest unconventional gas reserve, as well as other projects in Tierra del Fuego.

It has a 37.5% operating interest in Fenix, alongside BP's Pan American Sur with 25% and London-listed Harbour Energy, which purchased Wintershall Dea's upstream portfolio in December, which also has 37.5%. (Reporting by America Hernandez in Paris; Editing by Elaine Hardcastle and Alexander Smith)

Part II

Other gas projects on the horizon include the full-field development of the Shah Deniz field by a BP-led consortium. Data is being analyzed from a 7,000 meter-deep exploration well drilled last year to appraise the reservoirs beneath Shah Deniz's current operational layers. Requiring one more platform, the full-field phase would probably add 1 Bcm-1.5 Bcm/yr for an outlay of about $4 billion, industry sources say.

Socar’s own gas production could be augmented by up to 8 Bcm/yr if it succeeded in attracting partners with the technology and capital to develop the offshore Umid and geologically challenging Babek fields. And there is more gas to come on stream from future development phases of the Absheron field operated by France's TotalEnergies.

On Sep. 20, Azerbaijan’s Day of the Oilman, BP is set to sign a long-awaited agreement to develop the huge reserves of non-associated gas that lie under the prolific Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli (ACG) oil reservoir in the Caspian Sea, Energy Intelligence understands.

Industry sources say the deep layers of gas could yield plateau production of 4 billion cubic meters per year at a time when demand for Azeri gas is increasing in Europe.

Azerbaijan has a number of future gas projects on the drawing board, but the choice of going ahead with the ACG deep gas development makes sense for a number of reasons, industry sources say.

Reasons to Be Cheerful

First, the project will not require massive investment, as most of the infrastructure, such as platforms and so on, is already in situ for current ACG oil production. Around $2 billion should be enough to get the gas on stream, industry sources say. In comparison, by mid-2024, capital expenditure in the ACG oil development had reached $45 billion.

Secondly, appraisal work is already complete, so the developers know how much gas is in place. BP and its partners have been studying data obtained from an appraisal well completed in April 2023 and are understood to have come to a positive conclusion that the deep gas layers could potentially produce up to 5 Bcm/yr.

Thirdly, a huge export pipeline, the Southern Gas Corridor system across Georgia and Turkey to Europe, has already been built by BP and partners at vast expense. Efforts to double the system’s capacity to supply Europe to 20 Bcm/yr to diversify the continent’s gas imports away from Russia are moving forward.

Finally, the consortium needed to develop the project is already up and running, obviating the need for complex legal partnership agreements to be worked out. The Azerbaijan International Operating Co., which produces oil from ACG, is held 30.37% by BP, the operator, along with Azerbaijan’s state-owned Socar (31.66%), Hungary’s Mol (9.57%), Japan’s Inpex (9.31%), US supermajor Exxon Mobil (6.79%), Turkey’s TPAO (5.73%), Japan’s Itochu (3.65%) and India’s ONGC Videsh (2.93%).

The deal for the ACG deep gas project looks set to be inked on the 30th anniversary of the signing in 1994 of the “Contract of the Century” for the ACG oil development, which has proved to be the backbone of the Azeri economy for the last three decades. Originally signed for 30 years, it was extended in 2017 until the middle of this century, opening the door for another $40 billion in investments.

Growing Demand

By pushing ahead with the development of ACG deep gas, Azerbaijan is signaling that it has enough reserves to meet growing demand, both at home and abroad. During the first seven months of this year, the country’s total gas exports rose some 6% year on year to 14.7 Bcm, according to Azerbaijan’s energy ministry. Just over half these volumes — 7.5 Bcm — were piped to Europe, with Turkey receiving 5.8 Bcm and Georgia 1.4 Bcm.

Https://www.fidelity.co.uk/markets-insights/markets/uk/did-sell-in-may-go-away-work-this-year/

Article mentions 15 th May BP sp then £4.97 so…….

The renewable energy market continues to evolve rapidly, with growing demand for sustainable energy solutions.

bp’s decision to focus on Lightsource bp and divest its onshore wind assets reflects a broader trend in the industry, where companies are looking to specialize in specific segments to maximize their impact and profitability.

Market players have to navigate a complex environment, where regulations, consumer expectations and technological advances play a crucial role.

By integrating its renewable energy projects into a more coherent structure, bp is positioning itself to take advantage of future opportunities in the renewable energy sector.

The ability to adapt to market changes and respond to customer needs will be key to the company’s success in this new energy era.

The transition to a low-carbon economy requires strategic investment and a clear vision, and bp seems determined to play a leading role in this transformation.

I would think it would sell very easily.

It’s a mature business already built with contracts for the power they supply.

Things like pension funds like the predictability of these type of assets.

It comes down to price.

$2 billion is quoted.

Because it’s 10 stand alone sites,$200 million per site ( roughly) should be very doable.

Or maybe some green fund will come in.

Interesting times

Charlie I do like the idea of a simplified business as it makes it easier to see what makes good returns and what does not.

Sometimes lumping things together means a money making business is dragged down by a small part that really should not be kept.

Hi Mark

This weeks numbers will be just noise,and will not help with the direction of travel.

No doubt those who can will still try to use it to prove whatever they want.

BP definitely appears to be slowly changing direction,but like a super tanker it’s a slow process.

My thoughts have always been we are in business to make money.

BP is “preparing for the narrative shift”, said Biraj Borkhataria, head of European energy research at RBC Europe, and is “shifting capital away from transition themes and back to the core business”. He added BP's rival Shell is making similar moves.

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, told The National that BP’s US onshore wind business has been a “source of difficulty for some time”, even though the renewables sector got a boost from the Biden administration's Inflation Reduction Act.

“BP wrote down the value of these assets by more than $1 billion in 2023 and management now seems to have decided that enough is enough, as wind installations slow in the US and solar power takes a more prominent role in America’s energy generation needs,” he added.

It is less than a year since BP was upgrading wind turbines in Indiana and commenting that onshore wind was “critical to BP’s renewables and power business, one of the company’s five transition growth engines.”

Meanwhile, in a further attempt to boost share value and simplify strategy, BP announced on Monday that it is offloading part of its stake in a key natural gas pipeline in southern Europe to New York-based investment firm Apollo Global Management in a deal valued at $1 billion.

It is all part of BP's drive for financial efficiency and to glean about $3 billion from divestments. The company is faced with a fall in the price of crude, which is down 20 per cent this year, while still being committed to returning cash to shareholders through a $3.5 billion share buyback scheme.

Overall though, it has been a tough time for wind companies recently. They face soaring prices for raw materials, high interest rates and disruptions to supply chains. Danish renewable energy group Orsted recently took $581.59 million hit to its accounts, partly because of delays to a major offshore wind project in the US.

A Bloomberg report in June cut its projections for new onshore wind projects in the US by 22 per cent until 2030, because in many cases lower power prices mean the economic case for building new wind farms cannot be made.

Https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Extend-Gains-on-US-Supply-Concerns.html

BP P.L.C. has filed a report with the SEC, detailing a significant change in shareholdings as a result of an acquisition or disposal of voting rights, with Norges Bank’s voting rights crossing the threshold on September 12, 2024, now holding a total of 4.00154% in the company. The notification, completed on September 13, 2024, in New York, indicates a substantial increase from the previous notification, where Norges Bank held 3.015035% of voting rights.

We are starting to know the value of some of the parts

BP Lightsource now has a value of about $0.5 billion

BP Bunge nearly $3 billion

And now on shore wind US about $2 billion

It would be useful to know if these values are more than was spent on them or if we managed to add any value

Looks good

A couple of thoughts

1) it’s 10 wind farms, so they can obviously be sold separately or as a group for a premium.

2) it more than pays for BP Bunge, and personally I would prefer the opportunity available with Bunge to upscale.

3) with the deal a couple of posts below that’s $3 billion unlocked in one day,which suggests there will be more “ simplification “ to come

BP PLC on Monday said Apollo-managed funds will buy a non-controlling stake in bp Pipelines TAP Ltd, a BP subsidiary that holds a 20% stake in Trans Adriatic Pipeline AG.

London-based oil major BP said the transaction is valued at around USD1 billion.

Trans Adriatic Pipeline owns and operates the final 800-kilometre leg of the Southern Gas Corridor pipeline system. This transports natural gas to markets in Europe from the bp-operated Shah Deniz gas field in Azerbaijan's sector of the Caspian Sea.

William Lin, executive vice president at BP's gas & low carbon energy unit, said: "We are very pleased to come together with Apollo on this key piece of Europe's energy infrastructure. Importantly, while bringing in a new investor, this does not diminish bp's role in a strategic asset for our Azerbaijan gas business. We see great potential in building innovative arrangements such as this and look forward to continuing to explore further opportunities with Apollo through growing this collaborative relationship."

Skardon Baker, Apollo Partner, said: "We are pleased to partner with bp on an agreement that will provide our investors with long-term exposure to an industry-leading infrastructure asset with a stable cash flow profile, while allowing bp to meet its objectives of retaining control and executing on its capital efficiency strategy."

Apollo is a global alternative asset manager.

BP shares were 0.5% higher at 406.20 pence each on Monday morning in London.

By Tom Budszus, Alliance News slot editor

So no idea of its accuracy

An interesting historical correlation exists between Oil and Gold prices which can fluctuate but somehow always tends to even out overtime:

The relationship between oil and gold is generally expressed as the **gold-to-oil ratio**, which measures how many barrels of oil can be purchased with one ounce of gold. Historically, this ratio fluctuates, but it often returns to a long-term average over time. To estimate what oil prices "should" be today based on the historical relationship, the steps are as follows:

1. **Historical Gold-to-Oil Ratio**: The long-term average ratio is approximately **15 to 20**, though it can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions. For recent decades, a commonly cited average is around **16**.

2. **Current Gold Price**: We need the current price of gold (in USD per ounce) to make this calculation.

3. **Calculation**:

- Use the historical average gold-to-oil ratio.

- Divide the current gold price by this ratio to estimate the oil price.

Given the current gold price of **$2,587/ounce** and using the historical gold-to-oil ratio (commonly around **16**), we can estimate the current price of Brent oil.

### Calculation:

1. **Gold price** = $2,587/ounce

2. **Historical gold-to-oil ratio** = 16

Estimated oil price = \( \frac{2,587}{16} = 161.69 \) USD per barrel.

Therefore, based on the historical correlation and the current gold price of $2,587/ounce, the estimated price for Brent oil should be approximately **$161.69 per barrel**.