Member Info for meoryou

Uncertainty is Iran’s best weapon.

I think somehow whoever really is calling the shots in Iran.

They really know how to play Trump

The last 24 hours has seen a whirlwind of major - but often contradictory - messages about the Strait of Hormuz from both the US and Iran.

Here's a brief timeline of how the situation has changed since yesterday.

Iranian FM declares Strait open: At about 13:00 GMT (14:00 BST) on Friday, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says on X that the Strait of Hormuz "is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire".

Trump responds: Minutes later, Donald Trump posts on his Truth Social platform saying "THANK YOU!" but says the US naval blockade of Iran's ports will remain "UNTIL SUCH TIME AS OUR TRANSACTION WITH IRAN IS 100% COMPLETE".

France and the UK announce mission: UK PM Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron say that they will lead an international mission to protect freedom of navigation "as soon as conditions allow", following a virtual meeting with 40 other countries.

Iranian parliament speaker calls Trump's claim "false": Hours later, at 22:14 GMT, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf posted on X that Trump "made seven claims in one hour, all seven of which were false". He says that, with the "continuation of the [US] blockade", the Strait "will not remain open".

Shipping data shows some vessels crossing Strait: Data from tracking site MarineTraffic shows some boats apparently moving through the waterway on Saturday.

Iran's military says Strait closed again: According to Iranian state media, at about 08:30 GMT, Iran's military says it is resuming its control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's military says the US did not fulfil its obligations and "passage requires IRAN approval", state broadcaster IRIB says.

Vessels change course: Shortly after, we see ships tracked by Marine Traffic turning around and returning to their origin ports.

But that’s news from BBC 90 minutes ago .

So may already be old news( no longer true).

Think the confusion will continue all weekend

Iran's airspace has partially reopened to international flights, according to the state news agency IRNA.

The country's civil aviation authority has issued a notice that the country's airspace and a number of airports have been reopened as of 07:00 local time (04:30 BST) and flights will gradually resume from today, IRNA reports.

Air routes above the eastern part of the country are open for international flights, the broadcaster adds.

The airspace over Iran has been closed since US-Israeli attacks began on 28 February.

Think nowadays you can have mines you can remotely switch off and on.

No idea if Iran has any ( but they probably have boat loads of imaginary mines)

Marine traffic showing more tankers definitely moving in both directions in the straits.

It’s still early to find out if there is real traffic flow.

But is oil tankers and LNG tankers so may actually be true

“ Lets see if we cry or celebrate next week 😂”

Or possibly both at different times

Some peace

A settling period to find out where the oil price and sp really belong now.

Then if it does kick off again we might just understand a bit better how it will affect the sp.

But personally will be happy if oil starts to flow,there is a lot of disruption to oil flows to fix.

And a real assessment of damage and time to fix would be nice.

Fortunes being made

And fortunes. lost.

10 minutes is a long time these days

Prices moved higher again as traders shifted focus back to supply risk. China’s refinery data also showed the impact of disrupted Middle East flows, even as domestic production increased. This reinforced the idea that the supply issue was real and not just headline-driven

WTI and Brent crude traded through a volatile stretch from this week, driven almost entirely by headlines tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict. By Thursday night, June WTI crude was trading at $89.23, up $0.25, or 0.28%. The week started with a sharp rally as supply fears spiked, then shifted into a mix of profit-taking and cautious buying as traders weighed the risk of a longer disruption against the chance of renewed talks. At the center of everything was the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for global oil, and the question of how long those flows could stay restricted.

Geopolitical Risk Sparks Early Rally in Crude Oil News Today

Oil prices pushed higher at the start of the week after U.S.-Iran talks broke down and Washington moved to block Iranian ports. That move immediately raised concerns about supply losses. Reports suggested millions of barrels per day were at risk, which helped drive both WTI and Brent sharply higher. Brent moved close to $100, while WTI followed just behind.

The key issue wasn’t just the disruption itself, but how long it might last. Traders quickly priced in the risk of an extended conflict, which added a strong risk premium to crude. Forecast upgrades from major banks reinforced that view, with expectations that supply would not return to normal quickly even if tensions eased.

Physical Market Tightness Supports Oil Prices Projections

As the week progressed, the market started to split into two stories. The physical market remained tight, while futures prices showed more caution. Spot crude prices surged well above futures in some cases, showing that buyers were willing to pay up for immediate supply.

At the same time, U.S. crude exports climbed to around 5.2 million barrels per day. That increase highlighted how important U.S. supply had become as Europe and Asia looked for alternatives. Brent held a stronger geopolitical premium because of its global exposure, while WTI found support from rising export demand.

Demand Concerns Trigger Midweek Selloff in Oil Prices Forecast

Midweek, oil prices pulled back as traders reacted to signs that talks could resume. This shift in sentiment gave the market a reason to take profits after the earlier rally. Adding to the pressure, the International Energy Agency warned that the conflict could hurt global demand.

The IEA even suggested that demand could decline slightly if high prices continued. That message mattered. It reminded traders that while supply disruptions push prices higher, they can also reduce consumption over time. This created a more balanced outlook and triggered a sharp but temporary selloff in both WTI and Brent.

Late-Week Rebound as Supply Risks Remain Unresolved

Late in the week, the market found support again. Hopes for talks were still there, but there was growing doubt about how quickly a resolution could be reached. Shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz continued, and U.S. inventory data showed a draw, which added to the bullish case.

Will be interesting to watch how this plays out.

Definitely not as easy at it sounds

Empty supertankers have left Asia en route to the U.S. via the Cape of Good Hope in one of the biggest queue of vessels ever seen at sea, as Asian buyers rush to load U.S. crude to replace part of the supply lost in the Middle East.

"Tankers are forming what looks like a fleet, an unbroken line heading to the U.S.," Kpler's analyst Matt Smith has told Nikkei.

"The queue of VLCCs bound for the U.S. is the biggest we've ever seen, highlighting a squeeze in oil supply," the analyst noted.

Asia is starved of crude as its biggest suppliers, the oil producers in the Middle East, cannot ship most of their crude through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia has some wiggle room to boost exports via the Yanbu export port on the Red Sea, but the Kingdom was nevertheless forced to shut in some upstream production as Yanbu exports can't offset all the losses at the Strait of Hormuz.

As a result of the crashing supply from the Middle East, refiners across Asia have turned en masse to U.S. crude supply and are now apparently sending an armada of tankers to bring that supply back to Asia within a few weeks.

North American crude has replaced Middle East flows in both Asia and Europe, according to energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

Middle East crude exports collapsed by nearly 60% in March, triggering "an unprecedented global energy realignment," in which Europe and Asia are importing record volumes of North American crude, WoodMac says.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

Just sold another 1,000 around £5.85

That’s me now set myself up with a £ target total for BP shares.

If I go 10% above will sell some back to target.

If I go more than 10% below I will consider adding.

BP now. 40% of my portfolio.

With a chunk Harbour Energy also.

But it’s no longer a bet on oil price but a bet on the individual companies.( although oil price can help if it wants)

It took a while to have a real strategy but I am very comfortable with it for now.

But no plan survives first contact with Trump

Fleccy

Congratulations on some great timing.

What’s the plan,is that you out of BP for good.

Or will they tempt you back in if they fall far enough in the future.

All that oil knowledge you have acquired may still have a use one day.

Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Markets-Reprice-War-Risk-After-Congress-Rejects-Iran-Pullback.html

Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Middle-East-Energy-Infrastructure-Damage-Close-to-60-Billion.html

It could take up to two years to restore a meaningful share of oil and gas production lost in the Iran war, according to International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol.

That timeline matters because markets are still treating the disruption as temporary. It isn’t.

Oil fields, refineries, and pipelines have sustained damage across the Persian Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz has also been largely shut, cutting off a key export route for crude and fuels. Together, those disruptions have removed hundreds of millions of barrels from the market.

In an interview with Bloomberg’s Wall Street Week, Birol pushed back on the idea that supply would return quickly once shipping resumes. Reopening the Strait does not bring production back to pre-war levels, according to Birol. Facilities would need to be repaired and output would need to be restarted.

Both take time.

This follows earlier estimates from the IEA that the war has already knocked out as much as 13 million barrels per day of oil production. Total export losses, including refined products, have been even higher. More than 80 oil and gas facilities across the region have been damaged.

Natural gas could take even longer to recover. Some LNG terminals may need more than two years to return to normal operations after sustaining damage.

The impact is already showing up in the physical market. Spot crude prices for immediate delivery have surged, with some barrels trading near $150. Refiners in Europe and Asia are competing for limited supply and, in some cases, cutting runs as shortages begin to take hold.

Demand is starting to adjust. Birol pointed to early signs of demand destruction, including fuel rationing, reduced industrial activity, and rising inflation pressures in energy-importing economies.

Those effects are expected to hit hardest in emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, which rely heavily on imported energy.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

Gordon

Thanks finally had time to sit down and read.

Had previously read your article on L&G

Had read a few posters on L&G board which had helped educate me ,on what you have touched on.

It’s only the last couple of years I have diversified into financial ( none bank).

So truly still learning.

Thanks again for your input.

Harmonica

So far it’s the only place I have seen this,but it’s a credible source.

Even though no actual names are quoted.

Think this is very much a case of expect the unexpected.

And yet you will still get surprised.

It’s true uncharted territory