Member Info for meoryou

Mad Dog Phase 2 due mid 2022
Also think divestment’s will be on hold unless someone offers something too good to refuse

This board seems very negative at the moment.
If sp was at £5.50 just now and rising we would be seeing the same financial figures telling a positive story and would all be bullish.
THERE IS A Disconect between oil price and sp,but the financial fundamentals cannot be anything but positive at 100 plus oil.
At some time it must effect sp ,otherwise in 25 years I will be the only one left with shares in BP as all the rest will have been bought back.
I think even looking in rear view mirror we will never understand the lack of correlation between oil price and sp over the last wee while

My advice is where possible stick to something you know.
A very simple example of this would be if you shop at Tesco and suddenly see them providing something everyone else is missing you can see they will boom.
Ps not suggesting Tesco ,but sometimes you can really see a company is going to win.
You could see it about 15 year ago with Argos at Christmas time it was so busy,now they have dropped the ball totally

Chandlery
I think at the time the div cut was justified by covid and negative oil prices as many companies actually stopped div completely ( non oil companies mainly).
At around £2 buyback was good idea as it was very efficient use of cash.
Now we are kind of somewhere else making lots of cash,there are competing ideas.
Not sure which idea has most support higher div or buyback.
Can understand the feelings of those who bought high,and the yield argument.
Think we have room to try to please all by signaling that div will start to rise better in 2nd half of year.
I have posted on here about a div directly linked to Ave oil price in a quarter,by some easy to understand calculation.

Proffpuff
I do understand the div argument it used to be my holiday fund and is now a shadow of its former self.
I think the buybacks were partly because it was assumed that a lot of greens would want to exit BP.I think this has been the case.
I think the unintended consequence due to covid was to trap a lot of shareholders who bought at higher prices.
Except for the div and buyback do you think BP is on right lines or have we went to green?
Think there are 3 classes of shareholders
Those who bought high for div yield and have lost big time
Those who think current strategy makes sense
Those who think we should still be an oil company.
You can be in several classes at same time.
I personally believe it’s the right direction and probably timing is close to fight also.I believe in our story going forward or I would not be invested here

Theaky
I agree that probably the biggest driver towards oil spill was too much concern about cost.In those year’s budget was the only important thing.
Glad that is no longer our main function.Instead it’s all about safety( or the talk is ,hopefully it’s much more than just talk)

I can understand all the negative comments as sp is completely disconnected from oil price at present.
As an ex employee I will call out BP just like anyone else.It has been 20,years since I Iworked for them, but I have been a shareholder over 40 years.
BP try to predict the future with their review,that’s it’s whole point
It was easy 2 years ago with pandemic and COP coming to see early signs of end of oil(especially as governments all rushed to end cars using petrol and diesel).And car makers
Now don’t know what next review will say, but sure it does not say oil use will end any time soon.
Looney uses review along with BOD to plan the future ,it’s not him or greens who write it as the whole point is for oilers to plan what needs to be done.
That’s the only way BP can take advantage of future trends.
Maybe Bernard has got it wrong and moved too early,time will tell.
Accusing him of not being a true oiler is a bit silly if you look at his employment with BP.
However lest it be forgot it was “true oilers “ who almost destroyed BP with Oil Spill in 2010.

Welcome back Mark we all have days when we start wondering do they know something I don’t.
I really struggle to see why they are missing it.
I suspect it is just the div but time will tell.
If you ever doubt again I was reading some of the company stuff about their teams and how they are enabled to be as positive as possible and have the ability to fix things with out being rubber stamped by the boss.
The way they talk is about being enabled and it makes them motivated and perform well

Mark
when you think something is right and the whole world thinks it’s wrong.
Occasionally it’s you that’s right.
I think that’s were BP is just now it’s simply unloved, and we can see they are wrong.
It will have its place in the sun again
(I have been missing your positivity)

Jakers I think America is often driving price up ,then in morning the price rises to reflect this and the profit takers come out.
I think it’s UK that’s holding us back at present, on rise up to £4 there were times when we were leading and the US was following .
Just my opinion time will tell

There appears to have been a pause the last 3 days.
Someone said about a week ago that at the levels then ( 10,000,000 a day) that they thought there would be I think 8 more days to complete.The amount per day dropped by half then stopped so think there is something going on( but what I have no clue)

Jezzoo
For the first time in days almost all my other shares are up so suspect it’s only bargain hunting and profit taking.
But that’s only a guess

Hi Mark
Think the final big mover will be when div starts properly to return to historic numbers .
Prior to oil spill I was taking over £16,000 in div per year
Now with 10% less shares( and it’s been a hard journey to get back to this number of shares ) div is about £6,000 per year so there is massive upside.
Think currently the company is becoming a slimmer company with a drive down in running costs( but not in usual way of just cutting costs and numbers).
I think the company has got very smart,in enabling employees to affect the bottom line,and duplication of best practices ( previously we kept inventing the best of everything,now we share the best over the company).also AI and computers are being used to make real savings,even drones are a big saver.
It’s all little steps that each save a few million on one project but taken together they add up to big big savings.So many projects arriving 6 month early and under budget again make lots of extra unplanned for cash.
This is a lean company which is helping itself,and in addition is getting a huge help from rising oil prices.
On a steady oil price I believe you would see profitability rising because we are getting it very right.
When will the wider market recognise this who knows ,but it’s nothing new I have been through many cycles like this in the 40 odd years as a shareholder.
The company has been through really hard times since oil spill and I think many companies would not have survived.
Now finally it’s making money everywhere.There are almost no weak spots.
This was only going to be a couple of lines to Mark,but it wrote itself.

Hi Bumble
I agree I brought it up because someone else mentioned it.
Don’t think US would be welcomed and only reason they would have is because we are so undervalued.
Value always gets noticed eventually

Currently almost everything is going BP’s way.For some reason the market does not believe.We can all see the next set of results are going to be a wee bit special.
The US are saying Exxon etc could rise by 30% if oil banned from US.
That would take BP to nearly £5 ,if the market is stupid enough to miss these earnings slowly others will start to see it.
Anyone with spare div(who did not buy at £5) will seriously consider reinvestment.I kind of hope we do not pop before the div cash is available,but I also know I should not be topping up as really overweight in BP( but still want to).
The market will start to revalue BP at some point.It’s making too much money to miss.
Not sure if I would be expecting a takeover as think government would block as BP did then proud by exiting Russia,but that does leave Shell,however it’s valuation is not inflated like US oil stocks so not so easy.
Think for takeover the value must be above £6 now ,but don’t think I would be in favour.
Think this board is like the market with lots of different views, and time will tell which view comes out on top.
Right now I am very bullish as do not see what will change with regards oil price.
Maybe only thing would be Putin to have a mishap and Russia to say sorry ,but although that would delight me not expecting it to happen.

Think BP stance on Russia as a first mover must give them some political protection from windfall tax especially as they will now book a loss.
If they think time is right for div hike only time will tell

I would note that the last couple of up days appear to have been without aid of buybacks.
That must mean that there is support at theses levels unless there is more bad news.
It is kind of hard not to expect support at this level of oil price.
When buyback kicks back in ,maybe the push to get back above £4

Hi Zac
Don’t think BP current valuation represents the financials so something is holding back sp.
It’s interesting to watch and see what does finally moves sp, I expected buybacks to have more effect on sp,but no uk share with buybacks has been rewarded.
Not even Bt where someone has came and bought up close to 20% of shares.
Those with time on their side will be rewarded

Hi Jakers
I think when the div does start to meaningfully rise that the £4 and £5’s will pass in about a week and we will be in the £6’s .
It’s just how long we take to start talking the rising div talk.
I would like to see them go mad on buyback till next results day 3rd May, then give a commitment to address the div at August results( and target dept and buyback till August with a priority to debt)
There is a lot of cash to find a home for so it’s only a matter of when.
I seem to remember that previously you said your time scale was not years as you had a definite date you needed to exit for.If that is the case hope for you they talk the talk in time as when it finally happens it’s going to jump

It’s a hard question to answer, but if oil stays even above 100 dollars ,it’s very hard then so see BP not make huge amounts of cash.
If it doesn’t get to 5.50 it must be considered a bargain buy.
I’m so over weight in BP ,but with oil at this price I am finding it hard to stay on sidelines.
BP by year end will have paid of chunks of debt and bought back barrels of shares,if it can also increase div due to all the cash then it will rise.
It’s not long till div is paid I would think quite a chunk of it will be reinvested.
Share price usually rises into reinvestment day.
Only concern is oil price rise was fast on way up,just hope it doesn’t come down as fast, but think as someone said previously even without Russia 100 dollar oil was very likely