Member Info for meoryou

Theaky
I personally would not vote for a takeover at below £8 .
And then only from Shell.
The Americans can pay even more.
I believe £8 is possible with current plan , just not this year or next.
It’s okay I don’t have enough shares to block so you would be fine

Monaco
That’s very true

Who would have thought it a couple of weeks ago.
This morning we hit £4.40 just 10 p off £4.50 which I was hoping to hit by next results date.
My take on the Rosneft Telegraph story is it appears from looking around at other sources that it’s really only the div that has been stopped.
BP had already said they would not be taking it currently anyway.
I believe that up,till recently there has still been communications between Rosneft and BP so hopefully they keep talking.

That’s very negative.
But it does open up tit for tat with Rosneft assets out with Russia.
When assets are taken over hopefully BP will be first in line for compensation.
Think this story has a lot more mileage before the final act

BP p.l.c. (the "Company") announces that on 30 May 2022 it has purchased, in accordance with the authority granted by shareholders at the 2021 Annual General Meeting of the Company, a total of 8,500,000 of its ordinary shares of $0.25 each ("Shares") on the London Stock Exchange and Cboe (UK) as part of the buyback programme announced on 3 May 2022 (the "Programme") and as detailed below:
Highest price paid per Share (pence): 435.55
Lowest price paid per Share (pence): 429.7000
Volume weighted average price paid per Share (pence): 432.841

In so many different ways this is a new BP.
Balance sheet transformed.
Share count dropping fast.( now an increase in share count of 1% is sorted in one quarter, and downward trend back on track).
Safety is now very high profile as they have seen how expensive a mistake can be.
They no longer reinvent expensive parts but have a standard part used everywhere.
I also think they are empowering employees to make them more complete, and to use experience to help in places it is lacking.
Their use of tech is also very good , and in places where it makes sense not just because you can

Zac that’s direct quote from BP.com
On average, based on bp’s current forecasts, at around $60 per barrel Brent and subject to the board’s discretion each quarter, bp expects to be able to deliver share buybacks of around $4.0 billion per annum and have capacity for an annual increase in the dividend per ordinary share of around 4% through 2025.

Zac
I also believe that the target of 4% per year div growth to 2025 was due to share reduction due to buybacks of approx 4% per year.
How otherwise could they predict this growth?

Zac
From BP
Buybacks also help keep the dividend affordable. Reducing the number of shares in issue allows the group to maintain or grow the dividend per share. All while holding total dividend expense steady. We should note that current plans rest on the oil price remaining elevated, which BP has no control over.
My take on above quote is that div increase is self funding due to buybacks.

Zac the strategy was to increase by 4% self funded by share count reduction.
As share count has reduced by more than 4% the hope ( expectation) is that div will also increase by more than 4% .
We can only wait and see

I read somewhere ( can’t remember where) that it would just be held until BP made a disposal at which time it would go to buyer.
Meaning they would cover it to BP with their purchase price .
So if we sold for 9 billion and div was 1billion then BP would receive 10 billion.
Time will tell if that’s what happens

Thanks for that Charlie saves me doing the maths.
I’m hoping that as dollar strengthens we might end up with 10% increase when converted to £.
Time will tell ( I like never being more than 3 months from a div or results day)

Spights
The question might actually be
Can they?
Some say there is very little spare capacity.
I’m not so sure , some can definitely up production, but to stay united they all have to act together.
Likely they will continue as is , as it’s working for them so far

If as Theaky said yesterday
The markets have BP marked down 25% against our peers.
Then the buybacks are a good strategy as we are buying back shares with a 25% discount.
If and again it’s a big if (now the WT is an actual a known think instead of just a threat) the div starts to increase (even if just by the cost savings due to less shares out there) ,then sp will probably go up also to keep yield the same.
The whole green thing will only prove itself one way or other in a few years.
I’m still very positive

I was looking at a chart of crude oil
The $144 oil price was a 6 month spike from start to top and back down again.
The average price 2008-2014 would have been about the same as last 3 months.
Big difference would be cash generation this time around as with break even around $40 ish that’s almost double the cash.
If oil prices stay here and renewables start to generate cash in a couple of years.
What’s not to like

The last time oil was $144 a barrel our break even was probably at nearly $ 70.
I am sure our break even cost is $50 or below now.
I know they use $60 for their calculations when they decide to move forward with a project.
I don’t really want oil to get as high as 144 as think it’s just to high to keep things as they are $100-120 is a great place to be.

By the time government decides what it wants to do with this, BT might be nearly in a position where it could offer to buy back some of his stake if necessary.
This is what happened years ago with BP when a Middle East sovereign wealth fund bought 10% of company then government did not like it.
The shares were bought and cancelled.
In a year or 2 as fibre build slows money could be available to do this if it became necessary.

Theaky
Out of curiosity when did you buy
What was the sp and div
And what was the oil price

BP p.l.c. (the "Company") announces that on 27 May 2022 it has purchased, in accordance with the authority granted by shareholders at the 2021 Annual General Meeting of the Company, a total of 9,000,000 of its ordinary shares of $0.25 each ("Shares") on the London Stock Exchange and Cboe (UK) as part of the buyback programme announced on 3 May 2022 (the "Programme") and as detailed below
Highest price paid per Share (pence): 433.7500
Lowest price paid per Share (pence): 426.0500
Volume weighted average price paid per Share (pence): 429.5491

That seems a good strategy.
That’s often how I start thinking, then it reaches the planned price , and if the momentum seems to be there I get greedy and look for another 10 p.
Then maybe only sell half my planned amount and see if I can get a bit more for my 2 nd sell.
Does it work probably close to 50:50 but when it does it feels good