Member Info for meoryou

There seems to be a few names missing ,
did they all really bail out just before the good times ???
Arrived

It’s a great problem to have .
Should we pay off all debt.
Should we pour everything into buy back till sp is at least what we would call value ( at least £5.50)
Should div be increased.
My take is div increase as paid for by buyback dropping share count. 6- 10% increase.Any more this quarter just makes buybacks more expensive.
Maybe up buyback rate slightly then announce an extra 0. 5 billion buyback just before results as they have done from time to time.
Get debt down aggressively. To what level I cannot say what is optimum but at least another 10 billion dollars minimum off debt.
But there are lots of variations of how to move forward, and I know some are desperate for a big div increase

The 90s were a very interesting time for BP.
They started the mergers which started the Super Majors.
They even had a joint venture with Mobil in Europe, which I believe would have led to a full merger later.
I think this scared Exxon into their merger with Mobil as it would have made BP biggest.BP bought out the BP Mobil European joint venture.
That’s why in the 90s there were several share splits.
BP was Trend setting.
I remember after one merger announcement the share price rose by over £1 in a day ( from about £8 to £9).
They took out huge amounts of cost savings from the mergers.
I think this may have led to too much focus on costs ( and maybe indirectly to a cause of oil spill ).
BP was a stock market darling.
BP has always been at the front of trends, so it’s no surprise it’s been at front of renewables also.

Everything seems to be heading in one direction just now.
But everything from the last 2 years tells us anything can happen.
I’m positive that there’s quite a bit of upside still to come.
If oil price stays high ( and I think it will for quite a while yet) every year will improve the business even more.
If they continue to buyback 5% plus of shares in 10 years we will all be major investors.

BP p.l.c. (the "Company") announces that on 6 June 2022 it has purchased, in accordance with the authority granted by shareholders at the 2021 Annual General Meeting of the Company, a total of 8,000,000 of its ordinary shares of $0.25 each ("Shares") on the London Stock Exchange and Cboe (UK) as part of the buyback programme announced on 3 May 2022 (the "Programme") and as detailed below:
Highest price paid per Share (pence): 444.4500
Lowest price paid per Share (pence): 438.4500
Volume weighted average price paid per Share (pence): 441.7973

Think you should actually take the time to read my posts and not come on here with this type of post without even understanding who I am.My background is oil.
The only post I have made about stranded assets is for Russia.
I am in favour of making money by oil or green assets .
I look at everyone’s point of view, but have zero respect for anyone who comes on threatening violence to random people on the internet.
If you would like to debate feel free but otherwise feel free to block me.

Well that’s been a long long weekend and no negative Oil or BP news.
Except maybe that US will look at Windfall Tax also.
It’s only just over two weeks till div due so hopefully a wee rally past £4.40:and them maybe past £4.50 before then.
We can but hope.
I remember not so long ago when talk like that was pounced on here as fools talk, now it’s oh so possible.

I’m guessing ex div day here was same as US then we changed day to a bank holiday and they moved ex div day here back to Wed.
Have seen BP have 2 dates due to bank holiday

I really think this oil market still has several stories to tell.
1) who has spare capacity
2) how much of Russian output can they continue to sell.
3) what other moves will EU do.
I cannot see them just sitting back if India and China are undercutting them using cheap Russian crude.At some point I would expect some sort of import tariffs on goods from countries using cheap Russian oil Maybe not immediately as think still looking for unity against Russia, but at some point down the road.
4)Think if nothing changes Russia will be the first country with stranded oil assets as any demand destruction hits them first.
All just my opinions and some may not occur quite as I have said

Yes Cong thats another very valid reason why they don’t track one another, different Russian hit.
Must say yours was much shorter and more to the point than mine

Zac when you compare BP and Shell you are not comparing exactly like with like.
I know they are similar.
But in the last downturn Shell could take advantage and buy BG group, then spend years paying down the good debt they had taken on with disposals and synergies.
At the same time BP was laden with bad debt due to oil spill and unable to take advantage ( BG was always seen as a good fit for BP).
BP was also making disposals but this was partly due to high debt rather than what Shell was doing ( selling non core due to takeover).
I personally think Shell is still benefiting from that takeover.
And BP has finally came out of the cloud of oil spill ( although still making payments , another difference between them and Shell as they obviously able to use all their cash flow for their own purposes).
But is still missing the effect of being nimble and able to take advantage of last downturn.
I know as a holder of Shell you will know all this , but as I say because of the last 12 years they are currently at different points in their paths

BP p.l.c. (the "Company") announces that on 1 June 2022 it has purchased, in accordance with the authority granted by shareholders at the 2021 Annual General Meeting of the Company, a total of 7,989,984 of its ordinary shares of $0.25 each ("Shares") on the London Stock Exchange and Cboe (UK) as part of the buyback programme announced on 3 May 2022 (the "Programme") and as detailed below:
Highest price paid per Share (pence): 436.95
Lowest price paid per Share (pence): 431.4500
Volume weighted average price paid per Share (pence): 434.0625

Zac you keep saying buybacks don’t work because BP have been doing them for the last 20+ years.
That’s not totally true 2009, 2010,2011,2012 there were none
2015,2016 there were none
Only in 5 years between 2000 and 2020 were buybacks similar to the last 18 months.
This year is on target to be busiest yet.
Some years totals were obviously only meant to cover share dilution.
Many of your buybacks were in a market with a falling share price.
Currently buybacks are either causing sp to rise(probably not) or supporting a rising sp .
That is the time for buybacks as you are buying below market value.
I know I won’t change your view
What do you think sp would have been without buybacks?
Even without buybacks div would have been cut, maybe, just maybe by now it would have been reinstated, but imagine the bad publicity so it’s not a guarantee.

Thanks Charlie
I can stop worrying
I new you would keep me right, but I did like it when they were doing monster buybacks to catch up

Y11-shx
I have been surprised this week that volumes have been lower since as you say it’s a shorter week

bp announces redemption of USD 4.52 billion of outstanding notes
Release date: 31 May 2022
Its on BP.com if anyone wants the technical stuff

BP p.l.c. (the "Company") announces that on 31 May 2022 it has purchased, in accordance with the authority granted by shareholders at the 2021 Annual General Meeting of the Company, a total of 8,000,000 of its ordinary shares of $0.25 each ("Shares") on the London Stock Exchange and Cboe (UK) as part of the buyback programme announced on 3 May 2022 (the "Programme") and as detailed below:
Highest price paid per Share (pence): 441.3000
Lowest price paid per Share (pence): 432.6500
Volume weighted average price paid per Share (pence): 438.5662

Thanks Zac
We all have to believe what we believe.
Hope yours works for you

Zac
I expect to get to £8 at some point in future.
Not this year not next year but some time.
We have added about £1 per year for last 2 years.
So I personally will be very disappointed if we haven’t hit pre pandemic levels by next year.
If div does increase by 5-10% this year I expect sp to rise to keep yield similar.
I then expect div increasing each year up to 2025 , but still costing BP the same amount of cash
Debt is now getting closer to historical levels

Theaky you obviously see full market value as £5.50-£6.00
I would then expect a merger premium on top of that.
As the point of a merger is to be more than the sum of the parts.
I am sure we can get to my target one day without a merger.
Strangely at a 5 p rise per day which we have often achieved that would reach your £5.50 before next results day ( not a prediction just if using maths)