RE: BP cuts long-term forecast for oil and gas demand30 Jan 2023 10:37
Despite the declines, in the New Momentum scenario global emissions would only fall 30 per cent from 2019 levels by 2050, according to the report, which added that a 95 per cent drop from 2019 levels was required for the world to achieve net zero emissions.
In that scenario, oil demand would remain around current levels, close to 100mn b/d, through “much of this decade” before declining gradually to about 75mn b/d by 2050. Under the “Net Zero” scenario, the study’s most ambitious outlook for a reduction in emissions, demand would drop to 70mn b/d in 2035, falling to 20mn b/d by 2050.
However, BP argues that natural declines in existing oilfields mean investment in oil and gas production will still be required for the next 30 years, even under the “Net Zero”
The events [of the past year] also show how relatively small disruptions to energy supplies can lead to severe economic and social costs, highlighting the importance that the transition away from hydrocarbons is orderly,” Dale said. Demand for hydrocarbons must therefore fall “in line with available supplies”, he added.