Member Info for meoryou

Hope you have a good day.
Think you are due a break after your hard work getting sp above £5.40 and running the competitions.
:)))))

Time for a Feel Good Friday.
Can we close above £5.60
Wow that statement feels weird.
If the buybacks kick in today £5.60 does seem possible.
I am now very conflicted about the buybacks, as have seen so many above £5 prove to be bad value.
This time hopefully it’s different.
Ps another few weeks of this and I think the Christmas predictions might be history

Happy I agree.
My only additional point would be sometimes the media speculation results in a company becoming “in Play.”
Then you do see the sp of both companies start to move.
We are doing not too bad on our own, and the window of opportunity may be slowly closing.

Just some simple thoughts
If market really decided that Exxon would take over BP I would expect something like the following to happen.
I’m taking market cap from today
Exxon. 478
BP. 116
People have suggested here that BP would be worth about double as part of Exxon.
If this were true Exxon + BP =. 478+116=594 +116=710.
Being very simple and saying that 116 is the added value it’s % of the combined group is approx 20%.
So until we see Exxon sp rise by something similar the market does not believe there will be a take over.
It’s very very rough but I would say a sudden swing of + 10% on Exxon and at least 10% on BP both in similar time period ( unless due to oil price or results), might mean market starting to think about it.
I don’t see that at present.
I’m sure someone can do better maths than I did, but think my conclusions are close.
Obviously a takeover premium would move the numbers a bit.
All I am really saying is market currently ignoring the chances of a take over

Harmonica
My take is we have turned back into an oil company and are now being re-rated as such.
We have now decided that 40 % reduction in crude by 2030 will not happen.
( instead it’s 25% , which by some counts I believe we have already reached)
So earnings going forward from oil will be bigger.
The rush for green is now more tailored to where we have an advantage or can make money
Slightly more. CapEx going on oil projects
And of course we have upped the div, so possibly a more progressive div policy going forward
I don’t think take over rumours have anything to do with it as I believe if market though BP was in play we would be over £6 easily just now
Just my thoughts,
but I have in the past seen BP jump £1 in a day when it was them doing the take over .

Grandadtom
The rules prevent buybacks if sp rises by too much .
Charlie predicted there would be no buybacks yesterday after Tuesdays rise.

Happy
I am very happy to be reminded of it.
That would have been potentially nearly another $ 1 billion earned this year.
At some point the Rosneft stake will change its status in a very positive way for shareholders.
We would also approx another $ 1 billion per year but for the continued oil spill expenses.
There is so much to like at present.

There is even room for improvement in our results ( at constant oil price).
Without the problems with refineries in US and strikes at Rotterdam, numbers would have been even better.
Also several projects have slipped into this year from last.
After a long period of projects coming in early and under budget.
Will admit last few years have had affect on slippage with these projects so not a surprise.
So if oil price stays in the $80-$85 dollar range where it seems very comfortable we are setting ourself up for another great year.
I always feel sp is more directly related to div yield so hopefully just like last year the div rise sets a new sp floor.( hopefully above £5).

Morning Spights and all
I’m being greedy again today.
The higher above £5 we can get the better, as really would like £5 to not become the new £4 which was tested so often.
Will anyone reinvest their div at these levels?
When will the buybacks properly kick in ?

Think it’s interesting how many now feel BP may actually be worth £7.5-£9.00
As last year when I said £8 for a US oiler many did not believe.

No sign of anything on buybacks today so far ( as predicted by Charlie last night).
It’s nice to have these sp moves with little influence from buybacks.
And currently every single buyback is in the money.
There’s people out there desperate to buy BP at these prices.
I say don’t stop

I was going to say I’ve been a bit tied. Up today, but with some of the comments on here, I think better leave it as been a bit busy.
Really don’t think we need Exxon to unlock the value.
And personally would prefer a tie up with Shell if we were to loose our independence.
Think we are doing ok on our own and are probably about the right size to.

Think there might be a few long term holds wondering if now is the time to cash in.
The US really appears to like the change in direction.
The climate activists unsurprisingly are not happy.
Small buyback on a 8% up day was even more good news.
It’s hard not to be positive and think the div increase along with buybacks may help consolidate the rise.
But there are always bumps along the way.
Onward and Upwards

SlickMongoose.
As Charlie says there are rules which prevent large buybacks when sp has made a major move in previous days.
Think that’s what may be in play.
It definitely will be tomorrow

BP p.l.c. (the "Company") announces that on 7 February 2023 it has purchased, in accordance with the authority granted by shareholders at the 2022 Annual General Meeting of the Company, a total of 4,021,095 of its ordinary shares of $0.25 each ("Shares") on the London Stock Exchange and Cboe (UK) as part of the share buyback programmes announced on 7 February 2023 (the "Programmes") and as detailed below:
Highest price paid per Share (pence): 506.80
Lowest price paid per Share (pence): 495.15
Volume weighted average price paid per Share (pence): 504.8354

It’s been a rather good day to be a BP shareholder.
Really thought we would have some good results and surprise positivity.
But you just need to look back at my posts yesterday to see I never thought BP still had a nearly 8% rise in its locker.
Being greedy now hoping for a week of positive surprises

Charlie
Will ye no come back again.
Best of luck also

Zac
Best wishes for your next investment, and all your current ones.
Hope for us remaining investors your last line is correct, but sometimes the time is right to move on.

Spights
Jakers at £5.10 now looking like a dark horse( are we even allowed to say that now)
Unless settlement tonight is a bit bumpy

Nick
Think for some of them it will be a relief to get back to break even.
However if they do bale ,they might just miss the ride even higher.
We are after all an oil company again.

Harmonica
Would note I suspect we are back to large buybacks instead of 2-4 million.
So you might just be okay to wait till ex div to sell.
Not a recommendation just a comment