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There will probably be a relief fall in oil price when the war is truly over and the oil flows again.

But personally convinced that oil will find a new floor above $80 .

There has been to much disruption and some of it very long term for this to drop back to $70 oil.

Still think BP might have a bit more upside,but it’s not easy to predict the future just now.

BP and $80 oil a match made in heaven

BP market cap currently around

£94.5 billion.

Getting close to the £100 billion .

And someone could have bought us for 1/2 that amount.

Might just be one of the biggest mistakes in history.

( along with Trumps attack on Iran maybe)

Bet she wishes she arrived a month ago.

She will now be measured in future against a starting sp around £6.

4 th March she could have got £4.80.

Egypt’s Minister of Petroleum Karim Badawi inspected the drilling vessel Valaris DS-12 on Saturday. The vessel has arrived to begin drilling five new natural gas wells in the Mediterranean for BP and Arcius Energy, a joint venture between BP and UAE’s ADNOC Group.

Valaris DS-12 is scheduled to drill BP’s Fayoum 4, Gharab, and RW wells, alongside Arcius Energy’s Atol West and Novret exploratory wells. The Fayoum 4 well is expected to start production in July at around 100 million cubic feet per day, to support domestic gas supply during the summer and help reduce Egypt’s gas import costs.

The minister highlighted that international companies’ commitment to drilling reflects confidence in Egypt’s petroleum investment climate, strengthened by ongoing reforms and incentive policies, including the regular settlement of partner dues, expected to be fully completed by next June. These measures aim to encourage new investments, particularly in promising exploration areas.

Badawi praised BP as one of Egypt’s largest natural gas investors and a strategic partner for over 60 years, noting the company plans to invest approximately $1.5 billion in exploration and gas field development during the 2026/2027 fiscal year. He also commended Arcius Energy for choosing Egypt as a regional hub for its operations

As Meg O’Neill takes on the role of chief executive BP this week, she will face one of the biggest disruptions to the market since Deepwater Horizon.

While the oil major’s stock is trading at a two-year high on higher oil prices, BP is losing revenue due to exposure toIraqi assets affected by the war in the Gulf. Research from Rystad Energy estimates $280 million is being lost per day across the top six Iraqi operators.

Following a drone hit on the Rumaila oil field in southern Iraq on 23 March, BP evacuated all its foreign staff from the site. BP does not have any ownership interest in the Rumaila field but is paid a fee per barrel produced and has invested over $9 billion in the field over 15 years.

Weeks before the war, BP also finalised a major new contract to redevelop several giant oil fields in Kirkuk, in Iraqi Kurdistan.

“Trading can cover for some of the loss, but not the entirety of it. In Q1 and Q2 you would see the impact in the earnings,” said Aditya Saraswat, senior VP and research director for the Middle East at Rystad.

Not everyone agrees. An analyst note from Morgan Stanley on 24 March said “structurally stronger oil and gas outlook has come at the right time, allowing the company to deleverage faster and on a self-funded basis”. Another said that BP’s cash flow exposure was low compared with others in the Gulf.

Rumaila is operating at roughly a quarter of capacity - down from 1.3 million barrels per day to about 350,000, with further potential cuts on the cards due to limited refining capacity.

Of course, BP is no stranger to geopolitical turbulence in the Middle East. Its predecessor, the Anglo-Persian Oil Company, helped to discover the same Kirkuk fields in 1927. The company has held a presence in Iraq ever since.

O’Neill herself is used to challenges. During her time as CEO of Australia’s Woodside Energy she dealt with a major shareholder rebellion over climate goals and negotiated a merger with BHP's petroleum business.

As the first female boss of BP, she is likely to seek to put water between her strategy and that of her predecessors, Murray Auchincloss and Bernard Looney, who presided over the company’s botched pivot to greener energy.

Another crucial variable that explains why prices have not moved further is the length of the supply chain.

The Strait of Hormuz throughput has been lost for nearly four weeks now, but global oil arrivals only showed the first meaningful decline last week, of about 7.0 million bpd below the three-year average.

For the first three weeks of the disruption, oil arrivals were largely unaffected.

The cascading supply chain implications of a sustained shortage are structurally similar to what Covid-19 did to demand in 2020 – but operating from the supply side and with less policy flexibility to respond.

The pipeline of barrels already at sea, in combination with floating storage, SPR releases, and the spare production capacity, have collectively provided a buffer that is now being exhausted in real time.

From this week, every day matters.

Before the Brent crude flat price reacts, the physical markets are the canary in the mine, and differentials are now starting to move as European buyers realize that they will face fierce competition from Asian refiners for Atlantic basin barrels.

Another crucial variable that explains why prices have not moved further is the length of the supply chain.

The Strait of Hormuz throughput has been lost for nearly four weeks now, but global oil arrivals only showed the first meaningful decline last week, of about 7.0 million bpd below the three-year average.

For the first three weeks of the disruption, oil arrivals were largely unaffected.

The cascading supply chain implications of a sustained shortage are structurally similar to what Covid-19 did to demand in 2020 – but operating from the supply side and with less policy flexibility to respond.

The pipeline of barrels already at sea, in combination with floating storage, SPR releases, and the spare production capacity, have collectively provided a buffer that is now being exhausted in real time.

From this week, every day matters.

Before the Brent crude flat price reacts, the physical markets are the canary in the mine, and differentials are now starting to move as European buyers realize that they will face fierce competition from Asian refiners for Atlantic basin barrels.

“ Whatever the facts, I think that the concentration of large holders in BASF being diluted is a good thing imho”

Especially now the last few big sales are now locked out for 90 days.

Did wonder if around mid year Hbr could do the opposite of what these people have been doing and have a tender to buy a pile of shares at a discount ( instead of a simple buyback).

It would allow the smaller players trying to exit a way out .

Stumpy

Wish I knew what it does to oil price.

My very personal view is that for some reason the market still has not digested fully what has happened.

So there is room for upside.

If it does get too high you start demand destruction in a big way.

So let’s stay in the $90-$110 range.

But OPEC have a lot more power now ( after the restart) as less production around.

And many will have an excuse for higher prices to repair damage that wasn’t their fault.

So would be very surprised to see below $80 long term.

The oil glut is consigned to history.

Product shortages are coming.

Stumpy

Roughly right with the numbers.

But after 3 -4 weeks tankers that have all,emptied will be either directed back to Middle East to hopefully fill up ( as the optimism is still there even with no results).

Or more likely to somewhere else to fill.

So even when finally over most tankers will be in wrong place to seamlessly restart.

Then you have the time it takes to restart everything.

Then the time to fill all the tankers ( a big one 2 days ).

Then the 2-3 weeks to reach places like Europe.

And none of that even mentions the damaged supply that is off line.

It’s June sometime before all the undamaged parts are suppling like it never happened.

CAPE TOWN, March ​27 (Reuters) - Angola's ⁠Etu Energias has signed ​a deal with BP and Eni's ​Azule ‌Energy to buy stakes in two offshore ⁠projects, the companies said ⁠in separate statements ​on Friday.

* Etu Energias said it is buying a 20% participating interest in ​offshore ‌Block 14 and 10% in Block 14K in the Lower Congo Basin.

* Azule Energy said the ​deal is valued at up ‌to $310 million and includes deferred contingent payments of up to $115 ‌million.

* Azule Energy's net working interest production from both blocks combined was 9,600 ​barrels of oil per day in 2024.

* ‌The transaction increases Etu Energias' exposure to producing deepwater assets with established ⁠infrastructure, stable ⁠production, and cash flow ‌generation.

* The transaction is expected to be ​completed ​in the second half of ‌2026, subject to customary closing conditions, including regulatory approvals. (Reporting by Wendell Roelf. Editing by Mark Potter

Donald Trump is set to become the first sitting US president to have his signature on US banknotes, the treasury department has announced.

Wonder if the market prices in an off ramp,this weekend

Or escalation.

So far most Fridays appear to look for no escalation over the weekend.

Will today be different

Spights was it only 100 lies he said,

Or was it the 100 lies he has so far been caught with.

America will have to wake up from this and severely limit the power of any future president.

But they get what they voted for.

It’s not as if most of it was not known after the way the first term ended.

3 weeks or more to return to normal,production less the output from damaged facilities.

Means close to 6 weeks production lost.

At least another 2 weeks probably more to get all the ships where they should be.

Then they have to get back for the next load.

The distribution is massive.

Totally normal production minus the damaged production with everything back in the right place is not likely before early June.

That’s 3 month from the start. With various levels of disruption.

OPEC will have a very strong hand to control prices,and will need it to repair damage ( also when you are the victim of the damage through no wrong it’s easier to see high prices as compensation).

So oil prices will not be $60-70 per barrel anytime soon.

I’m not brave enough to say what they will drop to ,but definitely higher than $80.

The market for some reason doesn’t agree.

But I’m sure if I’m wrong someone will take great delight in telling me come June.

And are we really surprised.

NO!

Trump making sure this announcement out before US open but could not care less about European markets being open.

No doubt some more of his friends made a lot of money out of it.

Peace would be good but time will tell

Think the market wants to think since it all started at a weekend.

That the next weekend may be an off ramp.

Instead this weekend was very likely confirmation that things could get even worse.

Iran passing 3 weeks of the straits being shut,know that the oil shortage pain will start to show from now.

Un sanctioning Russian and Iranian crude already in tankers only moves this down the road another week or so.

The release of strategic reserves was a very non event.

We all know Trump is not in charge and Iran does not care what he says will happen.

Iran will carry on doing what is doing ,because so far they are not being beaten, although sustaining a lot of battle damage

Brent neared US$120 twice in the last two weeks, a level not seen since 2022, putting pressure on Washington to calm the market.

On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox Business that just days after announcing one massive stockpile release, the US could consider another one, despite question marks over the viability of doing so logistically.

He then followed with comments that stunned already-exhausted oil traders: The US might lift some sanctions on Iranian oil, despite being at war with Tehran. Traders around the world, who have had to approach Iran trades with the utmost caution for years, expressed exasperation with the news.

Other efforts to tame prices include the unsanctioning of Russian oil at sea, and there has been intense trader speculation that the US may be intervening in futures markets, something Bessent has denied. Soaring volatility has also limited the size of positions that traders can take, as it makes it more expensive to do so. While that has helped to keep a ceiling on futures, it’s limited compared with the impact of the disruption in Hormuz.

“The US has almost exhausted the arsenal for stopping prices from rising, given this degree of uncertainty, if the strait isn’t opened and the uncertainty of physical damage isn’t removed,” Christof Ruhl, global advisor at Crystol Energy and a former BP Plc economist, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “So there isn’t much they can do.”

The signs of stress are growing, too.

Container shipping lines are adding fuel surcharges, and huge price swings in shipping fuel markets are causing some marine fuel buyers to hold off on large orders due to the price fluctuations.

In the US, retail gasoline prices are fast approaching US$4 a gallon and diesel prices have exceeded US$5. In Germany, a heating oil seller said people are only buying “when absolutely necessary” because of high prices, while airlines have canceled some flights as jet fuel soars.

“Movements in energy markets feed through to our cost base almost immediately,” said Pavel Kveten, Chief Executive Officer at Girteka Logistics, one of Europe’s top trucking companies. Fuel makes up about 30 per cent of the firm’s transport costs, he said.

Three weeks into the Iran war, there’s an ever-growing gap between the price of oil futures and supplies that determine costs for consumers in the real world.

The global Brent benchmark has jumped more than 50 per cent to around US$112 a barrel as the near-complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Middle East energy facilities choke supplies.

But the cost of almost every physical barrel is surging even more, as tight supplies boost prices of products that consumers actually use, like gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.

Refiners in Asia, the top consuming region, are buying cargoes from thousands of miles away at eye-watering premiums to Brent as they try and secure whatever supplies are available.

Trucking companies are starting to feel the impact of higher fuel costs and some parts of the world are crimping purchases of fuels that power ships.

With jet fuel prices above US$200 a barrel, major European airlines say passengers will have to bear the extra costs.

The disconnect between futures – which are underpinned by hundreds of billions of dollars of daily transactions – and physical oil is partly due to aggressive US attempts to keep a lid on prices, including through releasing emergency supplies.

The reality is that the global economy is suffering from a bigger inflationary hit than futures suggest, something that’s piling pressure on central bankers and the Trump administration before the November midterm elections.

You look at the paper markets, they’ve entirely disconnected from the physical markets,” said Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle Group Inc. “We’re dealing with an enormous supply shock.”

The price shock could get much worse. Wall Street giants Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. this week said that if the conflict continues, futures could hit record highs in the coming weeks, surpassing US$147.50 set in 2008. It’s unusual for physical and futures prices to remain far apart for long periods of time.

Those calls are being driven by what the International Energy Agency described as the biggest-ever oil supply disruption. Goldman has estimated that about 17 million barrels a day of oil flows through the Persian Gulf are being affected by the conflict.