Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
1. Announcing and executing share buyback plan (coming soon)
2. Win the paten claims against DR Reddy (jackpot, as market priced currently as”lose” against DR Reddy – but who knows end result , as current lose is only injunction proceeding which is procedural one)
3. Settling and paying as per risk reserves & legal opinions set out by Indivior and RB (the latter increased substantially risk reserve recently). Jackpot -who knows – if you don’t trust legal opinion, you trust what?
4. Accelerated market and sales in Sublocade – so far seems to be on track. May be jackpot, who knows.
5. Better situation than expected generic suboxone erosion – worst prediction already given but who knows – might better than worst situation if people cant get used to generics
personal guess work. DYOR. comments wlecome
I today had a casual chat with an experienced merger and acquisition legal counsel. I got the impression 1. RB and Indivior will try to settle with DOJ on a WP basis to avoid legal risk and commercial damages 2. RB likely pays majority of the end settlement with DOJ, as major activities occurred before de-merger 3. RB most likely already obtained opinions from legal/commercial/PR department so they have substantially increased risk reserve. 4. Indivior had done the same and have not increased risk reserve. I opine the DOJ action is more of politically motivated, thus hopefully can be solved politically i.e a wishful thinking - in June, UK prime minister might bring this issue to US president Donald Trump during the state visit. all personal thinking. DYOR. all comments welcome.
since general meeting approved share buyback plan, assume management is currently engaging a broker to execute it. once the broker is appointed and the news is announced, i guess it will give a strong support to share price: USD 40M, assume each share price is 1 USD (0.78 GBP), that is around 40M shares, or 6% of total shares (700M), which can forfeit most of the short trade shares currently playing in the market, thereby provide a strong base for the share price in the long run. personal guess work. do you agree? DYOR
interesting comments about generic suboxone...
https://www.drugs.com/comments/buprenorphine-naloxone/
https://www.painnewsnetwork.org/stories/2019/5/11/opioid-prescriptions-drop-17-in-one-year give us shareholders a little confidence. doj is a cat in the pigeons, but pigeons will survive as they can fly. personal opinion.
according to rns yesterday, directors are authorised to buy back shares, is that right?
tks a lot, RBT... so in my ubderstanding, possible jackpot being 1. win and got damage indemnity from dr reddy and other generic producers 2. lower or not much than 400m settlement with doj 3. RB pays the bill indivior need pay (doj) 4. accelarated sublocade increase...seems still have potentials whilst chance of paying usd 3b is small as per legal opinions by outside counsels...
thanks a lot RBT, very informed. learned...one question, since it is at risk launch by dr reddy, i sense dr reddy need pay damages to indivior, is that right? i read an article about dr reddy, seems their position is : just do it, if loses the patent battle, pay to indivior with negotiation. they expected to get 25% generic market share, according to that article..
any guru can predict the outcome of patent disputes ongoing in appeal court? dr reddy more likely win in the end or indivior more likely to win in the end? when can have appeal judgments? possibly go to usa supreme court? have you listened to recording for 1 april oral argument in cfac website? what is your impression from the oral hearing? tks
imho, 1. management can only rely on legal opinion to identify whether doj proceeding risk is big or small. the legal opinion is not big, as per quarterly report 2. guess reason for risk being small is major activities done by RB, so rb has said need subsrmtantially increase reserve 3. guess rb should indemnify indivior if only sue indivior 4. but the proceeding spooks buyers. buy or not buy, it is up to your risk appetite
Appreciate if any Guru can enlighten how to buy the shares " every 22 shares for 1 shares"? When can buy? thanks
agree, i think currently suboxone is under pressure - doctors are cautious to prescribe suboxone, fearing falling into the traps of the DEA, as prescribed suboxone might be used as drugs (similar to heroine to get high) for some people. but Sublocade is different. it is injected into patients body, for 30 days usage, thus less likely to be taken for illegal usage. Doctors would be happy to inject Sublocade, but Sublocade is expensive and not covered by insurance company (?). Conclusion: More pressure on Suboxone is good for Sublocade (if Sublocade marketing strategy changed). The above sis laymen's personal guess work only. DYOR.
australia iron ore production increased in recent months, brazil vale opened new projects for more iron ore. iron ore cost is barely USD per ton. china now winter, demands are low season. all bad news. why iron ore price so strong? the secret? china steel factories still making money. only 75% production capacity is "working". china factories are in weak position to bargain price with big 4 giants. if you are china factory in such a position, you cant haggle price with vendors, you can make money, what you will do? - buy more iron ore, produce more steel, as long as there is profit, try to increase steel price, make more cash flow for you. isnt it? so you see why here supply and demand does not work, but rather whether steel factory making monies works. this probably answered your baffling as why iron ore price being so strong albeit all "negative news" coverage (in traditional thinking model). always look at the bench mark figure - how many chinese steel factories are making money - currently the index is 75% steel factories are earning money rather than losing money
http://www.mining.com/iron-ore-copper-prices-jump-on-upbeat-economic-forecasts/
Puzzled about recent iron ore rally? China decided to eradicate underground low grade steel production capacity (they use scrap metals, not iron ore), this means steel factory can produce more steel to replace eradicated underground low grade steel capacity, consequently more iron ore consumption.
1. http://www.bxrgroup.com/selected-current-investments.php fxpo is a major investment of BXR 2. http://hsprod.investis.com/ir/fxpo/ir.jsp?page=news-item&item=583915836281085 this some 70M was held by BXR on behalf of lyncheewood 3. lyncheewood is dormant by now as per UK company house records conclusion: i guess the actual seller in first placement is lychnwood. almost all sold out, there will be no second placing, unless BXR changed invesment strategy, am i right?
also 1. comparing to 2015, UAH down valued, meaning lower cost for FXPO: http://www.xe.com/en/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=UAH&view=2Y 2. since GBP down valued, the USD asset of FXPO appreciated (in terms of GBP)