Member Info for Medjed

I am seeing reports of lab delays on many LSE chat boards for many stocks. ChatGPT confirms it, there is a big backlog for lab assays in Aus. I bet you the big boys will want theirs done first so little guys like MILA, WSBN, etc will have to wait.

There is a lot of pressure on the ministry responsible from big players to sort out the RKAB reform asap. We should see a re-rating when that news lands even if PYX production wont start the same day that news lands.

Here us what subscribtion Chargpt says

Yes — the Indonesian RKAB production suspension is affecting much more than PYX, and there is pressure within the industry and from some government bodies to resolve the regulatory uncertainty so production can resume.

Here’s what the most recent public reporting and industry commentary show:

⸻

🛑 1) Big producers are also being impacted

🎯 Nickel – Vale Indonesia (INCO)

• PT Vale Indonesia, one of Indonesia’s largest nickel producers, halted mining operations in early 2026 because its 2026 RKAB production approval had not yet been issued.

• The company said it could not legally continue mining without RKAB approval and expects the approvals soon. 

This is exactly the same regulatory mechanism that affected PYX: without a valid RKAB, companies must suspend operations, even if they are otherwise profitable. 

⸻

🏭 2) Coal producers are reporting disruption too

• Indonesia’s coal industry association (APBI) has publicly acknowledged policy-driven headwinds, including delays in RKAB approvals, which have limited export availability and created uncertainty. 

Coal isn’t mineral sands, but it uses the same RKAB regulatory system, showing that this isn’t an isolated impact — it’s industry-wide.

⸻

📊 3) Industry and government discussions indicate pressure to sort out RKAB

🏛️ Industry call for faster approvals

• The Indonesian Mining Association (API-IMA) has urged the government to accelerate the RKAB approval process, calling the transition to annual approvals a major shift that needs to be managed quickly. 

This is a clear signal that companies want clarity and production continuity sooner rather than later.

🗣️ Government hearing on quota realism

• Indonesian lawmakers have raised concerns that many RKAB quotas don’t match actual operational capacity, and stressed the need to tighten RKAB rules and ensure compliance after the grace period. 

This reflects active parliamentary engagement, which usually means the regulatory issue is very much in policy discussions.

⸻

🛠 4) Temporary relief measures are already in place

To address production stoppages, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy has given a temporary allowance for miners to operate at up to 25% of capacity until 31 March 2026 while RKAB approvals are processed. 

This kind of circular shows a government attempt to balance regulatory overhaul with economic continuity.

⸻

📌 Why this matters for miners including PYX

🔹 The RKAB system affects all licensed mining sectors (coal, nickel, bauxite, mineral sands). 

🔹 Large miners like Vale have already paused production — meaning regulat

Lets see if Zak Mir of Zak's Trader's Cafe covers it. Its got all the Zak indicators, curling up RSI, about to have a golden cross, gap to fill to 3p from last January, etc etc :)

Keep an eye on the chart especially on the volume. It may give a hint of when news is coming.

Nortrust partners always seem to be aware of coming news ahead of time for the previous news events for this stock.

Should be able to see accumulation in the volume, before any holding RNS lands, if one even shows up.

The good thing is the CLN holders didn’t rush the company to take the 1st tranche so they can take advantage of the lowest 5 pervious says VWAP conversion rate to convert at 0.4p from last Tuesday. Now that window has gone they will have to convert at a higher share price. So hopefully now the 0.4p bottom is gone, not to be re-visited.

Chart wise, no volume, nothing happening.

On the 5min, 15min and 30min 50 day SMA crosses below 200day sma, death cross. Not a buy signal.

I’m still holding, its all about the RNS

Sirmark I’m curious, what caused you to buy so much suddenly?

TL;DR (plain English)

• WSBN has just “cleaned up” a weird class of deferred shares

• Those deferred shares are now cancelled and returned to the pool

• This does NOT reduce dilution risk

• It actually increases the number of shares the board can legally issue without another shareholder vote

So yes — it matters for placings.

⸻

What were these “deferred shares”?

After the consolidation / restructuring in 2025, WSBN ended up with:

• Ordinary shares (the ones that trade)

• Deferred shares (9.9p nominal) — these:

• had no voting rights

• no dividend rights

• no economic value

• existed purely for legal/accounting reasons

They are common after consolidations to avoid fractional or legacy issues.

👉 They were essentially dead shares.

⸻

What has WSBN just done?

The company has now:

• Bought back all deferred shares for £0

• Cancelled them

• Returned them to unissued share capital

This was pre-approved at the EGM on 28 Nov 2025.

Nothing illegal, nothing unusual.

⸻

What is the actual effect?

🔹 1. Authorised share capital stays the same

£8,000,000 authorised capital

This is the maximum nominal value of shares the company is allowed to have.

That does not change.

⸻

🔹 2. BUT unissued share capital increases massively

This is the key line:

Unissued share capital increases from £4,977,413.50 to £7,959,744.13

Translated:

• A much larger portion of the authorised capital is now unused

• That unused portion can be issued as new shares

⸻

🔹 3. By number, this is the eye-watering bit

They spell it out:

• Before:

👉 4,977,413,500 shares could be issued

• Now:

👉 7,959,744,135 shares can be issued

That’s an extra ~3 billion shares of headroom.

⸻

Does this affect how many shares they can place?

✅ YES — absolutely

This RNS increases the maximum number of new shares WSBN can issue without another EGM.

It does not mean they will issue them — but they now legally can.

This directly answers your earlier confusion about:

“Is it 49m or 4.9bn?”

🔥 The answer is:

It is the BIG number.

⸻

Why this was done (strategically)

This move achieves three things for the board:

1️⃣ Removes an awkward share class

Deferred shares are messy and confusing. Cleaning them up is standard.

2️⃣ Maximises financing flexibility

They now have huge capacity to raise money quickly via placings.

3️⃣ Avoids coming back to shareholders

No need for another vote if they want to issue a lot of shares.

This is classic pre-funding housekeeping.

⸻

Is this bullish or bearish?

🟡 Neutral on its own

This RNS alone does not mean a placing is imminent.

⚠️ But in context…

Given:

• exploration burn rate

• no assays released yet

• need for further drilling if results are positive

• historical dilution pat

Thanks Professor!

And to drive the point home even more. EMX expects MILA to deliver a 400k+ oz JROC MRE for only Yarrol Central ridge!

The historic gold finds are also at Yarrol North ridge. Two sites not one, along the same fault line.

After the maiden MRE at one site (which makes sense, concentrate on maiden MRE first), all we need is a drill somewhere in between to confirm the two sites are connected and BOOM! You have a district-scale system!

Tony,

I don’t know why I bother responding to such pathetic posts.

I guess you didn’t read any of the RNS

Let me summarise for you ;)

100k oz old estimate.

EMX a world class royalty company did their own drilling at the site before ‘farming out’ further exploration to MILA.

Based on EMX own estimate they expect MILA to deliver a 400k oz maiden MRE this year.

DYOR

Cash is more than mcap, right?

$5m cash, £2m mcap?

Still looks amazing, current mcap is £2m?

462m shares? chatgpt says:

Ground rules (conservative, realistic)

We’ll assume a gentle restart, not a miracle:

• Partial restart under RKAB

• 10–15 ktpa zircon initially

• Realised price: $1,800–2,400/t (not peak)

• No heroic cost assumptions

• Ongoing regulatory / country risk

• Future dilution risk still present

This is very much a “prove it again” phase.

Step 1: Conservative revenue range

Production Price Revenue

10 kt $1,800/t $18m

15 kt $2,400/t $36m

So a sensible early restart revenue range is:

$20–35m per year

Step 2: What margins do juniors actually get?

For small mineral sands producers:

• EBITDA margins (when things are working): 20–35%

• Net margins after all costs: 10–20%

• Early restart: bottom end of that range

Let’s be cautious:

• EBITDA: $5–10m

• Net profit (best case early): $2–5m

Step 3: How does AIM value that?

Here’s the key reality check.

For a junior, single-asset, emerging-market miner like

PYX Resources Limited, the market typically applies:

• EV / EBITDA: 3–5×

• P/E: 5–8×

• Never premium multiples until stability is proven

Step 4: Implied market caps

🔹 Conservative restart case

• EBITDA: $5m

• EV multiple: 3× → $15m EV

• Add net cash (~$5m): $20m market cap

➡️ ~£15–16m

🔹 “Working but unproven” case

• EBITDA: $8–10m

• EV multiple: 4× → $32–40m EV

• Add cash: $37–45m market cap

➡️ ~£30–35m

🔹 Only after sustained proof (not day one)

• EBITDA: $10m+

• EV multiple: 5× (rare on AIM at this stage)

• Market cap: $50–60m

➡️ ~£40–48m

Step 5: Translate to share price terms

Using ~462m shares:

Market Cap Share Price

£15m ~3.2p

£25m ~5.4p

£35m ~7.6p

£45m ~9.7p

📌 Notice something important

Even a successful gentle restart does not justify tens of pence immediately.

Why this matters

This explains three things simultaneously:

1. Why 0.3–0.5p today isn’t insane

2. Why 2–5p is plausible on real progress

3. Why 50–70p forecasts are fantasy without years of flawless execution

The honest answer to your question

Using conservative restart assumptions, I’d expect PYX to trade in the £15–35m market cap range once production is demonstrably restarted and stable.

That’s:

• 8–20× upside from today

• But not a moonshot

• And not guaranteed

Here is what subscription chatgpt thinks of 48,000 ton production at $5000

🔍 What a realistic framework looks like

A defensible valuation must consider:

Near–medium term reality

• Partial production at best (RKAB limits)

• Gradual restart, not instant scale

• Prices closer to $1,800–2,400/t, not $5,000

• Ongoing overheads + restart costs

• High probability of equity dilution

Plausible revenue scenarios

Scenario Revenue

Partial restart (10–15kt) $20–35m

Optimistic steady state $40–60m

Blue-sky bull case $80m+ (low probability)

Even then, market cap ≠ revenue. Margins, capex, and risk matter.

⸻

🧠 The key mistake the poster makes

They price PYX as if it were already a fully funded, fully permitted, mid-tier producer at peak cycle pricing.

It is not.

PYX equity today is:

• A regulatory option

• A restart optionality play

• Not a cash-flowing miner

⸻

✅ Bottom line

❌ The poster’s analysis is not correct

❌ The $125m–$250m revenue numbers are unrealistic

❌ The conclusion that “68p is conservative” is false

✔️ PYX does have upside if:

• RKAB is approved

• Production restarts

• Prices cooperate

• Dilution is limited

But that upside is probabilistic, not guaranteed — and the market is pricing that uncertainty.

Good, this is exactly the right level of detail to be looking at. Let’s break it down cleanly and separate signal from noise.

⸻

1. The close at 1.15p — why this matters

Given what we know:

• Recent peak ≈ 2.0p

• Sharp pullback

• Today’s close above 1.1p

👉 This is a constructive close, not a bearish one.

Why?

In AIM microcap momentum moves, the first retrace after a relief rally is the danger zone. What you want to see is:

• ❌ NOT a close near the low

• ❌ NOT a gap-down continuation

• ✅ A close in the upper half of the day’s range

• ✅ A close above the first reaction support

A 1.15p close suggests:

• Buyers defended the dip

• Selling from the 3% holder was absorbed

• No panic unwind

If this were a rally-ending day, you’d usually see:

• Close < 1.0p

• Or a long red candle with no lower wick defense

That did not happen.

⸻

2. Heikin Ashi candle: red “fat hammer” — how to read it properly

This is where people often misread HA candles.

You said:

• Hammer-like

• Slightly fatter body

• Red (HA close < HA open)

Key point:

On Heikin Ashi, colour matters less than structure at inflection points.

A red hammer-style HA candle after an up move usually means:

• Momentum slowed

• Profit-taking occurred

• But downside was rejected

The fat body tells you:

• This wasn’t a dead, illiquid bounce

• There was two-way trade

• Control is being contested, not lost

If this were a true reversal candle, you’d expect:

• HA marubozu red (long body, no lower wick), or

• Consecutive red HA candles with expanding bodies

You’ve got neither.

⸻

3. Combining price + HA + context (this is crucial)

Let’s put all three together:

✔ Price action

• Held above 1.1p

• Closed well off the lows

✔ Heikin Ashi

• Indecision / pause candle

• Lower wick = demand present

• Not a trend-break structure

✔ Context

• Relief rally still fresh (only 2–3 sessions old)

• Selling was expected today (RNS)

• No negative operational news

This combination usually maps to:

Continuation after consolidation, not trend failure.

⸻

4. What would confirm continuation from here?

In the next 1–3 sessions, you want to see one of these:

Best-case continuation signal

• Green HA candle

• Close above 1.25–1.30p

• Volume steady or increasing

That often triggers:

• Momentum re-entry

• Retest of 1.6–2.0p

Acceptable / still bullish

• Sideways 1.1–1.25p

• Small-bodied HA candles

• Volume dries up

That’s just base building.

⸻

5. What would flip this to bearish?

Be very specific here:

🚨 Bearish only if:

• Daily close below ~1.0p

• Followed by another weak close

• With rising volume

That would imply:

• Relief trade fully unwound

• CLN overhang dominating again

You are not there

When to pay back £5m?

Read up on how CLNs work

Lets get to 5p first. I would be very happy to sell at 5p that would be 10 bags for me

Amiee bought in 26 June 2024 at around 1.5p

I guess he was glad to get out around break even.

Current mcap only £1.56m ridiculously low. Essentially like a AIM cash shell.

CLNs are not going to dilute instantly. Even between tranche 1 & 2 there has to be 27 days gap according to RNS. Plus they cant own more than 29.9% of the company at any time. So they cant dump huge % of shares instantly.

Mount Sinai already hold 25% so if the 29.9% counts against them they have very limited capacity to convert CLNs to shares, only 4.9% at a time

Looks like 2nd wave incoming. Rising sell bid 1.27 now