Member Info for medi111

Have they agreed on a friendly sale of their solg holding? With whom?

The one who can pay 60p would pay 100p if there is competition. Paying 60p means you like the asset very much and you think that while there are risks, you are somehow confident you can overcome them. Once in this mindset, an additional billion, while it is important, is not a hurdle in view of the billions in ground.

It is the timing of the bid which is interesting cause the only dominant strategy they had is a low bid. A high bid is out of question cause you could end up with the asset but you don't know how much you overpaid. This also applies to the medium case but also in such a case, you engage the competition in somehow the expensive region which could lead to very high prices if the interest in there. So the remaining dominant strategy for them is low offer. So the question is more about timing. Why now?

It all depends whether a major is very interested or not (has alternatives). What a billion more to get sll such resources if say BHP is very interested.

BhP could target a 50/60p if the asset is not that critical for them (but still imporyant). If no one outbidding it, that's a good price. If someone bids 70+, that's a good return on their stake

It is a good fit for UAE. They would want to go fast to build in house capabilities, go big scale to benefit from the shortage and diversify their geographic supply footprint. They might go with NWM.

Now it makes a lot of sense for the CEO to travel to Abu Dhabi. The weather is good at this time.

60p is not bad at all if it comes in the next 6 months.

Why they don't pay 60p and spare us waiting for the next monday/RNS?

With potential news next week, one would have expected the finish to be interesting.

220p?

Amen.

THE INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY IS WARNING THAT COPPER IS HEADING TOWARD A SUPPLY SHORTAGE THAT COULD REACH 30% BY 2035

The only way out of this?

More mining.

Politics will decide. If the liberal/business/capitalist guy says it has to go at 25p or less, no one can say no even if the socialist/Marxist pays 50p or more.

Shanga and maxit @5.11%.

Right now, it could be just someone having nothing to do with his time. But who doesn't want 120p?

Thank you DBW and Pbow.

Yep, it is Chinese.

It is blue again.

Hi DBW, you are right; they can come back within the 6 months.

If the Chinese decide to opt out, they will need 6 months to come back with another offer. During this 6 months, you have one strong competitor out, so BHP or any other potential bidder can offer a convincing price in a way to push management and SH to accept, within the 6 months when the Chinese are out. This offer could be 50 to 60p for example. So would the Chinese take this risk if they see high value in solg? Or, is there another Chinese company that would intervene in this scenario? A sort of a game to cap expectations but if there is a need for a bid war, the 6 month regulation is not a hurdle for chiba.

Well, at least he is saying he wants to take a SMALL amount off the table and keep the big part for the ride.