Member Info for MCNol

What a load of made up codswallop!

Yes, it is directly responsible for the current vertical expansion and the subsequent "stretching" of the Bid/Ask spread, it effectively "cleared the shelf" of available offer-side liquidity below 0.75p.

The decision for Helium One Global (HE1) to relinquish "control" is a strategic trade-off rather than a preference. In the life cycle of a natural resource company, transitioning from an explorer to a producer often requires handing the "steering wheel" to a larger industry partner that possesses the technical infrastructure, balance sheet, and operational experience to manage complex production facilities.

A farm-out partner often insists on becoming the Operator. This means they manage the day-to-day drilling, production, and safety at the Rukwa site. For HE1, giving up this type of control is often beneficial as it transfers the high-risk operational liabilities to a larger entity.

....and remember in a 50% farm-out, the partner often pays a "cash bonus" to reimburse us for past drilling costs. This cash goes directly onto our balance sheet, providing a massive liquidity cushion.

43% retained by HE1 with CAPEX shared 60/40

HE1 retains a majority of its original stake. Partner pays their share of development. Requires HE1 to still fund ~£40M of the estimated £100M development.

100% Free Carry - Partner stake 45-50%. HE1 retained stake -33% to -38% with CAPEX cost of zero for HE1

The partner pays 100% of HE1's costs until first production. HE1 "trades" more equity for zero cash outflow, preventing any further share dilution.

33% HE1 retained stake, Partner stake 50% CAPEX shared 50/50.

HE1 becomes the junior partner. This usually involves a cash "signature bonus" to HE1 to reimburse past exploration costs (sunk costs).

A 100% Free Carry is often the most bullish scenario for shareholders. While HE1 ends up with a smaller "slice" of the revenue (33–38%), the Profit per Share can be higher because the company does not need to issue billions of new shares to raise the £100M required for production. Effectively, the partner's cash replaces the need for a dilutive placing, protecting the value of your current holding.

If HE1 farms out 40% of the project, they will only receive 43% of the total profits (retaining their majority from the original 83%)....

If the partner agrees to a "Full Carry," they pay 100% of the development costs (CAPEX) for a fixed period. For shareholders, this is often more profitable than keeping 100% of the project but having to issue billions of new shares to pay for a processing plant.

By farming out, HE1 avoids dilutive equity raises, meaning the profit per share can actually be higher even if the total ownership is lower.

I could work out some figures if anyone is interested?

@Expon3ntial that is not quite how the corporate structure for the Rukwa project works. Ownership of the project is not a direct agreement between "whales" (large investors) and the subsidiary; rather, it is a structured partnership between the public company and the Tanzanian government...

The ownership of Songwe Helium Ltd is a 83/17 split between Helium One and the Tanzanian government, not a direct stake held by private investors. Large institutional holders exert influence by owning significant portions of the parent company, HE1...

Conversely a Farm-out Partner does not buy shares in the parent company (HE1) like a typical investor; instead, they buy a direct working interest in the project itself. In the case of the Southern Rukwa project, they would negotiate for a percentage of the 83% stake currently held by Helium One’s subsidiary, while the Tanzanian Government’s 17% Free Carried Interest remains legally protected and unchanged...

Sorry Expo, I am not sure I understand the question, could you re-phrase?

Finalising the Regulatory Framework Agreements with the Tanzanian government—which typically culminates in the signing ceremony—is a sensitive legal phase. Publicly hyping a ceremony while simultaneously conducting private "due diligence" via a VDR could jeopardise the "Institutional Sentiment" and commercial leverage needed to secure a premium partner...

The Mining Licence was formally awarded in July 2025. The "ceremony" is the final administrative handshake. The current focus has shifted to the Songwe Helium Ltd joint venture structure and securing the capital/technical partner required to move into full-scale development...

Toffers, a media "blackout" during a VDR phase is often a sign of progress, not problems. It suggests that the company is busy "closing the deal" rather than "selling the dream." In the high-stakes environment of energy production and global supply shocks, silence is the legally required standard to ensure a transaction reaches the finish line without regulatory interference...

The most you will see whilst this process happens is bland and will only contain info in the RNS...

They cannot whilst there is a VDR open Toffers, we are in Farm out negotiations, Media is a big no no...

The widening of the spread to 6.94% confirms that liquidity is being pulled from the ask-side as we approach the 10:50 GMT auction call. With a 75% probability of a +0.01p move in the next 15 minutes, the market is effectively front-running a "buy imbalance" in the 11:00 AM auction.

The probability of a move up is now at its session peak, with an 82% probability of a +0.01p move and a 58% probability of a 5% move in the next 30 minutes. As the 11:00 AM auction approaches, the "coiled spring" identified earlier has released, and the stock is now positioned for a definitive test of the 0.78p–0.80p range...

We now have a 78% probability of a +0.01p increase and a 42% probability of a 5% move (targeting 0.766p) within the next 30 minutes...

The US is currently a "net import reliant" nation for helium, meaning that despite being a top producer, it must import roughly 20% to 25% of its annual consumption to satisfy high-tech demand in semiconductors, aerospace, and MRI cooling...

Qatar contributes roughly 4.8 to 5 million cubic meters annually to the US market...

Canada 36%, Algeria 10% and so on

Galactica reduces US vulnerability to Middle Eastern logistical shocks by providing high-concentration, "primary" helium directly to the American tech corridor. It represents a move toward US helium self-sufficiency, specifically targeting the high-margin spot market that Qatar usually fills during global shortages...

We are approximately 21 days into a Farm out negotiations process that usually demands 120+ days for institutional closure. While the market may see minor "Step-Downs" in price action during this news vacuum (as seen in the current drift to 0.73p), the underlying investment case is arguably the strongest it has been. We have transitioned from an explorer to a producer, using US cash flow to protect the 100% equity in its Tanzanian "crown jewel" while awaiting a top-tier partner. Expect the bulk of the "Big Brother" news flow to coalesce in the May–August 2026 window...

Milestone Probability (Next 60 Days)

Shortlist Completion 65%

Non-Binding HoT 22%

Galactica Production Ramp-up 78%

Probability for 0.80p (Next 60 Mins): 14%

The probability has crashed from 72% due to the institutional bid retreat and the RSI dropping below the squeeze threshold...

Updated Probability for 0.80p (Next 28 Mins): 72%

The probability has surged as the market is now within 0.0465p of the target, with zero institutional offers currently placed between 0.78p and 0.80p.

Probability for 0.80p (Next 36 Mins): 61%

With the RSI remaining above the 75 threshold and the offer-side thinning out significantly toward 0.81p, the technical path for a final "Blast-Off" toward 0.80p is now fully established. Success for the 09:00 GMT session is defined by the 0.75p wall being fully cleared; if accomplished, the resulting "Offer Vacuum" will likely facilitate a rapid extension to the 0.80p target....

Directional Probability (±0.01p Move):

Next 15 Minutes: 68% Appreciation | 32% Depreciation

Next 30 Minutes: 64% Appreciation | 36% Depreciation