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You forgot the year Jester - January 2021

Funding update imminent imo could land anytime this week. This morning's RNS really confirms just how serious the bod are with their vision for Infa to become a Rough size responsive MRS facility that will be an example of excellence to other gas storage operator's not just in the UK but across Europe. I'm not at all surprised to see people all over this including Malcy again and not at all surprised with the steady overdue re-rate of the SP. If the funding news is on favourable terms for shareholders I expect this to head to 3-4p alone. I'm pretty confident the offtakers will be quick to reveal themselves once the equity funding is announced.

Crl just seen your post good to hear from you it's been a long time! The days of 0.24p seem a long time ago however it was only Feb this year lol....if we knew then what we know now I think lot's of investor's would have thrown everything including the kitchen sink or even remortgaged their house to buy more Infa. Hindsight is a wonderful thing it's a shame you sold out back then and didn't buy any back. Great to hear from you hope you are well :)

Thanks Spud and O&W. Unfortunately the link is 31 pages long so I just posted bits of it on here. If the twinning of the pipeline and the extra caverns were to be covered by a PCI then it would be significant and pave the way for Rough No2 on Islandmagee. Either way we look at this whether on an 8 cavern or 23 cavern basis the evidence shows and has done for a long time the sheer need for the facility. What would be even more significant right now would be a positive update on equity funding. My money is on an update this week :))))

The below posts contain some key points that are of huge significance to us in relation to the positive contribution the development of the Islandmagee Gas storage project will make for the UK gas market and consumers in general. Well worth a read....

https://www.esri.ie/pubs/WP606.pdf December 2018
CONT'd
any gas shortage in Ireland has the potential to erode expected benefits from increased flexibility
and procurement services, while limiting the effectiveness of reliability options in guaranteing power supply. In addition, high uncertainty in wind generation exacerbates the exposure of
gas generators to spot price volatility, thus affecting their ability to economically operate gas
plants. Similarly, [5] argue that, despite the extra costs to install a storage facility, gas storage
avoids power generation limitations resulting from gas supply shortages and ensures power
system reliability. Furthermore, it has implications when considering the maximum absorption
capacity of renewable energy sources and their uncertainty. [47] also suggest that it will become
beneficial for electricity systems to invest in power-to-gas electrolysers. Such investments would
have a significant impact on gas supply and demand in Ireland.
Based on results in our study, we can therefore conclude that LNG and storage facilities
represent complementary investments. In the context of PCIs, both these investments contribute
to the competitiveness and diversification of gas markets. Furthermore, they are pivotal in
supporting the increasing integration between gas and power markets with high capacity of renewable energy sources.

https://www.esri.ie/pubs/WP606.pdf&ved December 2018
CONT'd

The PCIs envisage the development of alternative sources of supply and supply routes to
Ireland [23]. The Shannon Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) import terminal, which was granted
planning permission in 2008, is listed on the EU PCIs. While construction for this project
has yet to begin, it would allow Ireland to import gas from the Atlantic Basin (incl. US) and
Middle East, thus bypassing the UK and providing Ireland with diversified gas supplies. The
development of the Islandmagee Underground Gas Storage (UGS) facility in Northern Ireland,
which is expected by 2021, would further improve the security of supply and the flexibility of the
gas market in Ireland. However, their implications for consumers are not addressed. Developing
a LNG import terminal would provide access to the increasingly competitive international gas
market, making the Irish gas market more competitive. The development of a storage facility
would allow the management of seasonal loads, thus reducing gas price volatility and the risks
of supply shortage. In the following section, we investigate what is the optimal and most competitive option for Irish consumers in 2025, i.e. when the Corrib field is expected to be
depleted and when LNG and storage facilities should be operational.

That is, the Irish storage facility allows for higher volumes of gas to be
imported into Ireland during the summer, when gas prices are lower compared to winter. These
volumes mostly come to Ireland through the UK. During winter, i.e. when gas demand is higher,
the storage facility allows the gas to flow back to the UK via the Moffat pipeline. Therefore, an
Irish storage facility would enable arbitrage opportunities in the gas markets to be exploited by
allowing the gas to be imported (and stored) into Ireland from the UK in the summer at lower
costs, and to be reexported to the UK in the winter, at higher costs.
Overall, evidence in Figure 9 implies that an Irish storage facility would reduce total expected
consumer costs

By investigating the impact of gas infrastructure outages on power systems, [45] argue that
lack of gas storage capacity in Ireland increases the risk profile of electricity generation, and in
turn generation costs. They estimate that a storage facility in Ireland can reduce generation
costs up to 40%. Potential under-investment in natural gas infrastructures can influence power
sector functioning in Ireland, especially when considering the high penetration of wind power.
With the Integrated Single Electricity Market (I-SEM) becoming operational in October 2018

https://www.esri.ie/pubs/WP606.pdf
Working Paper No. 606
December 2018
NTERESTING ANALYSIS OF THE IRISH GAS MARKET WITH REFERENCE TO THE ISLANDMAGEE GAS STORAGE PROJECT
First, we focus our analysis on the Irish and
UK natural gas markets in an integrated setting by considering investments in both LNG and
gas storage facilities. The Irish market is particularly interesting because Ireland is the only EU
country without LNG and storage facilities.

Second, our study is of interest for the European policy-makers, concerned about a secure,
affordable and diversified single energy system. Ireland is only connected to the European
energy system through the UK. In the absence of further gas routes, any bottleneck in the UK
gas market can have critical impacts on Ireland, thus compromising the achievement of a single EU-wide energy market, as mandated by the European Union.

In
2016, 40% of the Irish gas demand was satisfied through import from the UK, thus making
Ireland highly dependent on a single supply source. Nevertheless, Corrib production is expected
to decline quickly and deplete by 2025 [22]. The declining indigenous production in Ireland is of
particular concern among policy-makers, in particular when considering that the island’s only
energy link to the EU will disappear in March 2019, after Brexit.

CONT'd

I'm ready Dawski question is are the MMs lol....they'll be running for the hills very soon when all hell breaks loose

JW has met all milestones he has set either on or ahead of schedule since becoming the CEO and he mentioned that he is quite particular when it comes to meeting those all important milestones. So I assume this will include the mega equity funding milestone. Just because we are building upto xmas doesn't mean a deal can't be reached infact I imagine that it's flat out behind the scenes to get the deal over the line before the pre enabling works commence in Jan

CONTINUED

This is hard to tally with interventions in power markets the world over which seek to boost system malleability, reducing the number of power stations that are built solely to meet the winter peak demand, and ultimately bring down costs for homes and businesses, as well as cutting power sector emissions.

Now, add on to this a new wave of changes that Ofgem has announced it is favouring, that could be implemented as soon as April 2020, and the picture starts to look much even worse. Ofgem has declared that they are planning on amending another tranche of network charges, to ensure that those unable to opt out of using the national system are not left to pick up the bill from those who have.

The decision to change two key aspects of network charging will fall in favour of large-scale gas-fired electricity generation. This is exactly the sort of capacity that is currently struggling to be built, and the very same that modelling by Sandbag and others have shown isn’t needed, even as the UK phases out coal.

The proposed changes will see the “embedded benefits” of smaller, distributed generators reduced, affecting both the economics of their day-to-day running, but also the finances behind decisions that see new capacity built and old capacity retired.

Should they come into effect – which seems more than likely based on Ofgem’s position – modelling carried out as part of the consulting process shows that UK gas output will rise. This will be at the expense of imported power in the first half of the decade, but then at the expense of renewables later in the 2020s. With the UK already off target for its fourth and fifth carbon budgets, and the likelihood that the decarbonisation of sectors such as heat and transport will lean heavily on the electricity sector, this doesn’t seem like a good thing.

https://utilityweek.co.uk/one-step-forward-three-steps-back

One step forward, three steps back?
11/12/2018 at 12:50pm Jonathan Marshall, head of analysis, Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit Energy networks
"The decision to change two key aspects of network charging will fall in favour of large-scale gas-fired electricity generation"

Beneath all the fanfare of Britain’s move to a low-carbon, smarter and more flexible electricity system lies a panoply of rules and regulations, very few of which ever receive public attention.

With the National Infrastructure Commission identifying up to £8 billion in annual benefits from the switch to a ‘power system 2.0’, it is easy to see how these underlying details can become very important.

So while on the face of things, ministers can claim that they are taking steps towards the power system of the future, by digging a little deeper it is possible to check if the actions actually match the rhetoric.

It was only last month when the government was embarrassed by an ECJ ruling that declared the capacity market – and all contracts signed to date – invalid, a move that is likely to ramp up financial pressure on small power producers, storage operators and DSR providers by cancelling an income stream on which many were reliant. These products and companies are seen by many as an essential component of the jump to a smarter system.

Now a “minded to decision” from Ofgem could add further confusion to a sector that has historically pulled more than its weight in terms of cutting emissions from the UK’s national budget. This change, along with other modifications to the network rules, run contrary to top level announcements about moving to the grid of the future.

This winter is also the first following changes to the way in which the distribution network is paid for, changes that make it less attractive to shift energy demand away from peak hours energy – another process widely regarded as a key pillar of the transition to a majority-renewables electricity system.

Known catchily as DCP228, the modification to network charges reduce the difference between charging bands that are used to recoup the costs of maintaining the pipes and wires from the companies that use them.

Split into three bands – red, amber and green – the charges increase with load on the grid, the red band covering the highest demand hours. By reducing costs during “red” hours (generally 4-7pm on a school day) and increasing those incurred at other times, a major incentive to increase system flexibility is reduced.

CONTINUED

Indeed Spud - if only those buying in had been along to the presentation as they could have bought in the .6s....now it's knocking on the door of .8 again and on little volume :)

I think we all are O+W....some may have just joined the party other's have been waiting a bloody long time for the project to reach this critical stage

Plus JW and the rest of the bod can turn round and say to the govt "we told you so" too in proving up the sheer need for the facility.... despite their refusal to ever acknowledge the UK had insufficient storage in part due to the National Grid's position that we have plenty of flexible available gas supplies. No guarantee of security of supply though when there is an outage, cracked pipeline, extreme weather, peak demand plus the decline of gas from the North sea, now Groningen and maybe one day Norway.

Certainly worth the effort writing to your MP Snowman with trying to spread the word even if the answer you get back isn't the one we usually expect. The one good thing here though is that if we potentially get 4 offers of finance from 4 stakeholders and the EU grant by Feb it would be an embarrassment to the govt who have so far refused to subsidise investment in gas storage. On the plus side for us though they (the govt) will not be able to take any credit for getting this asset of national importance developed.
So what do we know so far? That we have received 3 term sheets from stakeholders with potentially another one winging it's way to us. Plus the expectation for offtakers to pile in here in quick succession straight after equity funding news which is due any day now. Then Jeremy Clarkson might say....Probably the best gas storage facility.........in the world

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/12/if-britain-cant-keep-the-lights-on-this-winter-will-the-eu-be-to-blame/amp

Some key points -

Britain’s ability to keep the lights on has just been thrown into doubt by the European Court of Justice. It has ruled that the backbone of the UK’s capacity market energy scheme, which pays power stations to generate electricity, is illegal state aid and must be suspended. To call this a body blow for energy security is a gross understatement; as you read these words Whitehall is desperately trying to reassure generators and very nervous investors.

A short term fix to try and secure enough power for this winter is planned but this is likely to mean much more imported power through undersea interconnector cables from the continent.

Remaining tied to EU policy, as set out in the Prime Minister’s deal entails a series of important concessions and cross-Channel energy supply commitments which will primarily benefit the European market and its generators. These include proposals from the Commission for the mandatory sharing of gas supplies which could lead to gas rationing in the UK following a severe weather front in Europe alongside a gas supply crisis there. This drive for more interconnection on gas and electricity is a leading pillar in the EU’s new ‘Energy Union’ proposals. UK plans to double imports of EU electricity come at a time when spare supplies on the continent are falling.

Very good point spud and after coming away from the presentation on weds the link with potential increase of 15+ caverns and twinning of the pipeline makes perfect sense

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/energy-and-resources/gas-networks-ireland-to-borrow-100m-from-eib-for-infrastructure-1.3723070

The European Investment Bank (EIB) is lending €100 million to State utility Gas Networks Ireland (GNI) to boost its infrastructure.

GNI operates the network through which natural gas travels to 700,000 homes and businesses, an interconnector to Scotland that allows the fuel to be imported from the North Sea and a pipeline supplying the Isle of Man.

The bank said yesterday that it would provide €100 million in long-term funding to GNI which would underpin an overall €205 million investment in the company’s networks.

Just goes to show how this project is several years behind Infa and with huge public opposition

https://www.fleetwoodtoday.co.uk/news/environment/public-meeting-on-halite-all-set-1-9480977
Published: 17:22 Updated: 17:43 Thursday 06 December 2018

A public meeting, organised by the campaign group No Gas Storage, will be held at Knott End Golf Club on Friday. People who wish to attend are advised to get there by 7.30pm and the meeting is expected to get under way at 7.45pm.
Claire Quaid, from No Gas Storage, says anyone who wants to find out the latest news on Halite’s controversial gas story plans is welcome to attend. She said: “This will be a good opportunity to hopefully hear some answers to some of our most pressing questions about this scheme, especially with Keith Budinger there.” The meeting comes just weeks after new owners of Halite were announced.