Roadmap for UK gas security27 Dec 2018 22:00
http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/asset/E8CBC653-4BD2-4BA1-99DB926D129BFF38
A roadmap for UK gas security Dec 2018
Michael Bradshaw and Grant Wilson
3 Bradshaw, M J (2018) Future UK Gas Security: A Position Paper.
A Review of Gas Security of Supply within Great Britain’s gas market – from the present to 2035.
(Dec 2018). Heat decarbonisation challenges: local gas vs electricity supply.
6 BEIS Select Committee (2018) Gas Storage Inquiry.
(Dec 2018) A New Approach to Assessing UK Gas Security.
The UK still lacks a clear roadmap for the future role of natural gas in the energy transition. Events in March 2018
demonstrate this remains essential to providing the capacity, flexibility and resilience necessary to ensure future
UK gas security. However, debate continues around the future role of gas infrastructure, fuelled by uncertainty
regarding the role of low carbon gas in the decarbonisation of heat (see p6).
Globalising UK gas security
Government asserts that the UK benefits from diverse gas
supplies, but voices concerns about growing import
dependence. Presently, the UK imports about half its gas
– the bulk coming by pipeline from Norway and the
majority of the balance as Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
from Qatar. Depending on demand, by the 2030s import
dependency could be 70% or more. For this reason,
the government supports the development of shale gas; but,
this is unlikely to achieve the scale and pace to contribute
to energy security in the early 2020s. Brexit further
complicates matters as the UK will likely find itself outside
the EU’s internal energy market, left to fend for itself in
increasingly competitive global and European gas markets.
The cold weather in late February-early March 2018, the
so-called ‘Beast from the East’, tested the resilience of the
UK’s market structures to provide additional gas when
required. The graph below shows the
amount of gas in storage and LNG terminals since 2013,
making clear the impact of the closure of the Rough
seasonal storage facility. At the time of the cold snap,
gas stores were roughly 57% full, by the end of the week
they were 27% full, with major increases in demand
coming from the local gas networks.
.
Government’s view is that the market should determine if
more storage is necessary and that state intervention could
distort the market with unforeseen consequences.
.
This may be true, but it underestimates the risk that a
serious supply shock would soon become a significant
political issue. During the week of the Beast from the East
natural gas provided approximately 80% of the energy
required to power and heathe UK. With the closure of the
Rough storage site in 2018, the UK has effectively offshored
its seasonal storage further up its supply chains using
pipeline imports or LNG deliveries.
In assessing future UK gas security, the current reliance on
the N-1 assessment is far from adequate.
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