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Well, school holiday season is upon us already. Expecting the press to be monitoring this closely especially given the heatwave and. some schools closing early.
We are bound to see more hyped up flight interruptions in the media so I'm hoping for no significant disruption, just the usual drama queen's wanting a picture in a tabloid.
Good luck all
The share price did not double through the pandemic. EZJ went in at £12.60 and crashed to £4, then as the pandemic went on it recovered some of the loss due to gov employment support and likely pandemic outcomes (travel restrictions, vaccines, variants, etc) it peaked around £10 as sentiment of recovery grew (note Wizz and RYN were 20% above pandemic entry level - EZJ never exceeded the pandemic entry point).
Unfortunately, and not really predictably, just as the pandemic was ending (shares were £7) the war started and shares collapsed again. The war was much more disruptive than expected as it was toughly fought and brutal and had a wider range of sanctions.
EZJ have been hit moderately hard (WIZZ collapsed 80% from peak) but have not had routes effected by war, so the price move is due mainly to sentiment and oil prices which were further compounded by the lack of staff across the airports and airline itself. Imagine where we would be if demand was 60 or 70% of 2019 (instead of 120%+, although not able to be fulfilled).
Currently they will have enough cash on hand to buy all issued shares back and still have a similar working capital to 2019. I'm not saying this is about to rocket but fundamentals are still there as a good long term investment and as I'm a long term investor then I'm fine with this.
GLA
Well it didn't take long for the next crisis to appear however does not warrant the tsunami of negative posts & personal insults, WW3, perfect storm, Covid, nobody mentioned monkey pox yet? Absolutely no balance in posts by the position holders.
Why is it worth £3B?, maybe because it's the UKs biggest airline? maybe because of the demand? maybe because they have £3.5B cash on hand? Travel isn't going away, oil price is falling off peaks, long term oil in decline due to electrification of personal transport which is a game changer. Russian gas price ceiling being raised now.
Still long term investment here, strikes will reduce confidence and bookings, profits this year may be lower than expected. still a viable business for long term. management should bring staff along with a profit related bonus and salary sacrifice share option to quell the rebellion.
GLA, be nice u ***ts, peoples futures at stake here, u can disagree without getting personal :-)
Net assets 2.6B, Market cap a puny 3.3B.
This can be £5 at any time. Media have moved to Heathrow and the train station so happy steady tortoise moves back to where it should be and in line with other valuations of, J2, RYN, IAG, TUI that all have much larger market cap.
Any profit this year would be massive + but could be from 0 to maybe up to £250M. Dividend a long way off but 2018 and 2019 dividend was 140p per share.
Those thinking long term could retire In the sun.
Enjoy your holidays!
GLA,
So this update shows a likely return to profit then? Increase in cost per seat, lower overall cost per seat, fuel hedged and likely better seat yield than 2019.
+ cash position must be greatly improved as bookings are stacked.
Or, could be a small loss with main recovery next year.
Either way, there is no way they could credibly go for a rights issue or share placement to further dilute the stock (all bets off when the next crisis comes).
Might be a slow burn but the good times must be coming this side of the decade. I'd like to see small profits, used to improve cash position then reverse the earlier rights issue but buying back combined with reducing debt.
The expansive schedule (that could not be fulfilled) along with bargain price bookings before the fuel price hike, and booked with carried vouchers has caused a massive headache here across the industry but mainly EZJ as UKs biggest airline (and the UK are biggest holiday makers as you don't see queues of Spanish and French people jetting away on holiday).
Putting in a deliverable schedule is key. Less flights that are leaving on time will mean higher prices per seat due to the demand and no compensation claims. 2019 revenue per seat flown was £60 (that's including all extras and onboard sales, commissions from hotels car hire, etc) so a click though price of around £40 ON AVERAGE (as bags and seats are extra). Revenue per seat from now on could easily be £80, that's a big hike but won't show in the data until results for 2022-23 are out, maybe not until 2023-24 for full effect.
Carolyn got the shares to £18.90 so I'd have her back any day over slow Jo :-)
Finally strategic cancellation in the schedule particularly GTW so should settle down in run up to big holiday season.
Thinking of putting some more in now.
Not interested in the day trades and the shorters or leveragers as its not at all my thing (not to mention the new rapper among us).
Looking for long term growth and been in this for years. Plenty of analysts have this at a £7+ target. £430M profit in the good old days of 2019 at much lower cost per seat. Market valuation of £3.4B not high given ryanair $16B but only 1/3 larger business. Covid does not not affect travel - it has not gone away but is not impacting peoples life.
Flight cancellations even at 60 per day are not really significant on a 1200 flights . Not many of these passengers are getting the full compensation package the press are hyping , most rebook and suck up the inconvenience.
Wish we would see the management taking some effective and decisive action particularly at MAN and GTW, sorting operations here (at least reducing capacity in advance of people arriving at the aircraft FGS) would no doubt help the reputation out immensely. Can't hear any more airline CEOs whining to take EU crew. Press are camping out so where is the PR? where is the recovery strategy or apologies - these cost nothing.
GLA
Funny, This does not remind me of BPs massive environmental catastrophe, or of Enron collapse, or Bernie Madoff, or any other doomsday scenario.
Just looks like a struggle to get staff at all aspects of the aviation industry on what is the busiest week for 3 years. The main school holiday period. is 8!! weeks away so there is time to get this sorted and benefit from a well hedged cost base. Bear in mind that the main school holiday period is easier to cope as it is longer and more spread out (not just a dash away on one weekend to dash back the next).
Whereas EZJ would benefit from dropping the CEO and COO and bringing in some people who are invested in the business and not closely related to TUI and RYN i think this ship can be sailed into a good profit this year regardless.
This is my opinion, I do appreciate a long monologue from people taking up the downsides but they could sell out and move on once they have vented, unless they have a vested interest maybe :-)
Good luck people
Newby: "Oh EasyJet must crash, high valuation, no profit since covid and now some holiday flights have been cancelled - LOOK!!! some families on TV news are upset"
Long term EZJ holder: "Yep, That's normal" (eye roll)
My point is that every year us long term investors see these same stories caused by - Baggage strike, ATC strike, Checkin strike, weather, volcano, IT issues, staff issues, aircraft going tech' This is normal business as usual - we just glad Covid is over - which was the real risk to the industry.
Soon the media move on back to the petrol forecourt or the toilet roll aisle, then its £7 territory.
Good luck all, DYOR and all that!
PR disaster this weekend due to (yet more) bad management over the pandemic staffing. Don't know why u would jump ship from Ezj to BA given they are just as bad an employer (maybe the down route stays for the young un's swings it).
Take solace in the fact that cancellations are not due to flights being empty, everything that gets wheels off the ground is chocka-block with tourists. It will be a balance between compo payouts and profitable flights. This is the last practice before the smoother and longer peak of 6.5 weeks of UK school holidays. Pandemic is completely over and oil price similar to 4 yrs ago (monkey-pox u say, well that's not a viable pandemic disease, not even the same family as covid according to experts (not chineese experts who lied at the start of covid either))
I went into town this weekend, Primark, outfitters of the budget holiday is rammed with people picking up disposable clothes for their summer holidays. Nobody worrying about jobs, bills, war, environment, PCR tests, covid, masks, all want to feel the sand between their toes.
Top tip, go from your regional airport. Avoid GTW, MAN, Birmingham supports local jobs, less stress, cheaper, close to home when cancelled at short notice. :-) happy flying.
Just so you know for balance, the Boeing fleet ran with 3 crew back in the day. At first when 4 crew were required 'seat blockers' were used to disable a seat when crew were short (sick) so flights still left with the same amount of booked passengers but seats disabled. I don't think this is allowed now so seats are being removed (4 screws).
There was no contactless payment so slower service than now back then on boeing. everyone got served fine, crew comission went 3 ways instead of 4. Good old days.
3 crew is a smart move, put the seats back when crew situation improves. They can be added plane by plane as crew increase. If a plane with 150 seats is full/overbooked, swap with a 156 seater.
Simple asset management
GLA, good luck EZJ! A bit unlikely k with the FTSE sell off today but surely businesses as usual soon