Member Info for MaverickD

See the mms pull this up

Tlw will head higher - mms doing some weeding out. Better position than PMO as the assets are worth a fortune and we are a low cost producer. Hold more here than in PMO, but reading Simply Wall St they have calculated ROCE (Retrun on Capital Employed)

EBIT divided by Total Assets minus liabilities (11billion Dollars - 1.6billondollars) gave a 4.9% ROCE.

That calculation as of June 2019 - say we write down assets to 8billion you can see how the current market cap is completely dislocated from the true value. Therefore anyone saying a takeover is unlikely are mistaken.

Think you need to use a little more than having been a member for such a short period of time.
The update yesterday confimed in discussions wit disposals totalling over $1 billion - look at the entire portfolio. 60% hedges in oil at $57.28 for 2020. Production at over 80K plently of liquidity and headroom

Traders talk it down investors can see the value and to me this is the best pace to be.
I can see multiple aveuenes for this to return a very good amount fo those invested. Potential is massive - why waste trowing a dice with an explorer when you have a proven producer with world class assets with exploration licences in prolific areas partnered with majors such as Total and CNNOC

I have just bought again ....... watch out for the holdings RNS - takeover based on the info we received yesterday. Expecting a big stake builder

Its going to be applied across all markets - US to follow suit. There will be a number here that would be aware of what happened in 2008, just the same as me - closing shorts across the board will now happen. The icing on th cake is PMO coming out immediately to reassure the market of its financial health and strong hedge position and capex saving of $100m - expecting a stromg move up and the gap from 30p+ being filled. Yes I do think this will fly today.......along with TLW and the other oilies that were hit this week.

The unscheduled RNS confirming health and shorting stocks banned - its happening globally, so markets are going to see a big bounce. Shorters will be closing very quickly.

Announced by US and now Australia has given markets a shot in the arm - think others will follow. Expect the FTSE and Dow to bounce up from a torrid day. Wti and Brent markedly higher - expecting those talking this down to be singing a different tune now.

The one thing that people seemed to forget to mention is that oil supplies will be hit by workers that contract the virus and that will imapct delivery and production - results in the oil price going up. Just a thought

Transaction took place on Monday......they would have been adding and used the nerves in the market to add today. Expect a further update.
PMO are also close to disposing of Zama and I think will update the market on not going out on an aquisition hunt.
Some director buys too would be nice.

JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley have started building a stake - they see a bargain!

Taken a slice of the pie in all this mayhem. This time next week we will probably be back around 25-30p

Well its not limited to Tlw - PMO are in a similar position.
Oil and Coronavirus, but those with sense can see the bigger picture.
I think a massive buy order is being filled - update on that front with a Holdings RNS

With the potential sale of asset of around 1billion and hedges at $57 this year and $52 next year we are positioned as well as you could hope.
Target for a takeover - so ignore the rubbish being posted here

A cheeky 70p offer looks conservative based on what we have just read.......I have loaded up and sitting at 350k now

I managed to get 100k over 4 buys at an average of 15.2

Yes and the hedges helped then too, but were lower. Oil ar $30 is sustainable for TLW with the hedges for 2020 and $33 come 2021. You will see China slowly get back on its feet and then the Saudis and Russians will come to an amicable agreement to support prices.

So 60% hedged at $57 for 2020
40%hedged at $52 for 2021
Break even is $45
So we can tread water at a $30 dollar environment
Capex cut by a third and admin saving of $200m pencilled in over the next 3 years
The part people are missing is the disposals element with an anticipate $1 billion value - labelled "portfolio management"

Note from RNS:
Cash forecasts have been updated in light of the oil price volatility seen in early 2020, with the base case run using a forward curve of $38/bbl for 2020 and $43/bbl for 2021, and a downside sensitivity run at $30/bbl for both 2020 and 2021. As described on page 7, the Group benefits from its hedging policy, meaning that the impact of reduced oil prices in the going concern period is mitigated, in particular through 2020. Furthermore, the Board has plans to raise in excess of $1 billion from portfolio management activities in 2020.

All in all a very good update, whicj is better than expected and I expect a number to be buying today, as I think we will see a squeeze upwards.

If portfolio management is worth $1 bil then isn't the current market cap a joke and wouldn't somone want to drop in a bid of 70p+ I think they well might. Those hedges are a god send and I think Russia and Saudi will come to an arranagement and oil will head towards $50 as a minimum.

Lots of questions
Cornerstone investor?
Sale of Assets?
Takeover?
Improved production?

Tomorrow perhaps we will witness the rise of the pheonix - better than expected? We were kitchen sinked on 9th Devember 2019 - time for good news. It is long overdue

Tax rebate of near 2 billion - sweetens the business