Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Deemon...brave of you to buy back in and THEN check up on the RNS's etc! (Not that I haven't done that before).
NCM taking the 5% option:
1.) Shows a massive vote in confidence in the asset and its development - so I think even it just happening is great news.
2.) Share price may well see some movement based on how investors feel about the price paid, amount it leaves in the kitty after NCM loan repaid etc. Shareholders will have stake in 25% + some cash, Vs 30%. You can read all the discussion around link (or not) between share price and asset value...
3.) A dividend now unlikely, given we need to raise funds for mine development anyway
4.) Yes, progress the mine and other areas
I think.
On 17th Feb - feels like a positive GGP has agreed to this?
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/register/event_details/382?viewSource=TwitterUK
To me, it's another indication that the optimal way for NCM and GGP to get the 5% done is to sit down together and agree a number. It's in everyone's interest. Ideally both sides will be happy with the number or both sides slightly disappointed with the number!
LA - NCM can walk away from the 5% if they decided an independent fmv was too high i.e., if the independent went with GGPs number ( if it was more than 10% higher than NCM's) - so NCM do have more optionality. I think it's extremely unlikely it will play out that way though, but it could.
CJ - regarding JPM reporting etc. I don't think the 0.1 up or down increments are in real time. Actually, I think (but not sure) it may be up to 2 days before a reported change would be made public to the likes of us. So, in theory JPM could have increased or decreased their short position yesterday or today and we wouldn't yet know...
The timelines to the NCM option being available are crystal clear, and unsurprisingly NCM triggered the option early in the window. I don't think there's much more to it?
Regarding GGP mgmt December deciding to 'sell off' chunks or all of the remaining 25% - against the desire of shareholders - you'd need to make a case for why mgmt. would take such a different view to shareholders (for whom they act). I don't see it myself.
Bit odd ...you seem pleased that you decided you had enough conviction to publically state that, in your opinion, it's a downward drift to single digits...but apparently also say you are invested and want to see it fly. Is it a real opinion with real conviction? If so, why not take some action around your holding beyond sharing/celebrating a negative trend/opinion? Doesn't seem an especially helpful action...
Some interesting thoughts in this article for those interested:
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/gold-mining-m-a-poised-to-heat-up-in-2022-as-asset-pipeline-runs-bare-68503860
Jefferio - where was the sitting bids and sitting offer when you did your trade? This site sees a transaction - doesn't know who is the buyer (you) and who is the seller (a market maker) - could be either way round as far as they know - if the price you paid was closer to the sitting 'sell' price (rather than closer to the sitting buy price), the site 'guesses' it was a sell. If you want to ensure your buy shows as a buy you would have had to pay a higher price (which you probably didn't want to do!)
The price you paid will have been closer to the low end of the bid/offer spread at the time - it's a mechanical calculation not a LSE 'site' thing...now whether the sitting bids and offers are really representative of the market situation, that's another question!
Mattyboy - I think with most brokers you have to proactively allow them to lend out your shares. Whether the income that can generate for you is worth it vs. the implications is a personal choice. On one hand the total amount on loan is negligible relative to the total shares out there (and corresponding voting rights) and it appears that even a 20million chunk can be quite easily absorbed, so does it do any harm? Personally I wouldn't want my shares to be loaned out as a matter of principle, even though I don't believe that the shorting action we've seen will impact the ultimate capital appreciate we will see.
Hi Bamps - as far as I can tell they do:
https://www.interactivebrokers.co.uk/en/index.php?f=46969
The Dec 2020 spike created an ideal environment for a watching investor to short - and emboldened (+with lots of profits secured) it looks to me like they continued to try their luck through 2021 (and made more money). I reckon that gravy train has come to an end...but it does depend on what comes out over the next few weeks! Would be good to hear some news/updates from GGP soon...
CJ - indeed - and easiest way for a retail investor to take a position to benefit from a price drop. If someone really wanted, for some reason, to borrow stock to go short they'd need to arrange it with their/a broker - not all of them provide the service to retail investors but some do (interactive is one that does).
Personally I think it would take a brave individual to short GGP, at these prices, with the news flow to come. Who knows how things will evolve, but certainly potential for significant moves in next few weeks.