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Ongold - it's very theoretical, as they would be able to buy back to cover their short - at some price. If there were literally zero sellers for a while, then nothing would happen until the price moved up to a level that sellers emerged and JPM would then be buying back at a higher price.
Redrunner...I don't think the board needs to see our back and forth...not least as your last IMO, didn't have any opinion in at all as far as I could tell - unless it was a really subtle 'something (which I won't give a view on) might happen in the next 18 mths'....anyway, we'll see
Sre - totally agree...GGP own 30% of Havieron (+ other bits) - I've never heard anyone (even the most active on the negative front) say that's not going to support the SP to much higher levels than today. Yes, it is a question of time/timing, but as per above, even the biggest naysayers don't seem to say that this is not going to go up.
Agree...hard time see much downside risk at this level - the only one being if there was a funding shortfall but I think that's pretty remote - and there is clearly massive upside potential which is all available to read about in mining press and broker reports etc..
Darby, I assume not (unless total short goes to zero), I guess less than 0.5% is considered not significant enough for public disclosure? I think there is a lower threshold for disclosure to FCA, details around that are on FCA website.
LA - I assume, and maybe I'm completely wrong on this, that NCM and GGP both have/will both have a very good idea on what will be in the updated MRE. So maybe I'm in the minority but don't read anything sinister into SB's comments - more that SB is saying MRE is more about planning around the asset and the 5% is about a commercial deal.
Darby - you can find the FCA shortdata on link to excel from here:
https://www.fca.org.uk/markets/short-selling/notification-and-disclosure-net-short-positions
As per below and Paddy's comments, the current worksheet shows no shorts for Greatland (i.e., nothing at 0.5% or above), the historical shows JPM at 0.5% from when they opened it to 0.49% as of 28th February.
To be seen whether it was just a trading adjustment or start of new strategy/approach to GGP.
Makes sense they may have only bought back a little and crossed the public disclosure threshold - a full buyback would have surely triggered more price action? Who knows - hopefully this is the start of a buyback trend that might support the SP a bit!
Sharky - there are 3 obvious negatives in play:
1./ Decline taking longer than planned
2./ MRE2 coming out significantly later than expected by most
3./ JPM having a publically declared short representing 0.5% of the company
I don't think any of the items above will be remembered in 9 months time when it may be the case that:
1./ Decline has continued to progress within full timescale and budget
2./ MRE2 has been published and/or is about to be alongside DFS
3./ JPM have closed their short, or continue to hold it, but everyone realises 0.5% is insignificant
The above isn't ramping, it's flagging an annoying 'delay', but important to look forward.
The key item right now is ensuring full funding is available. Without the 5% option (i.e. situation as it was 2 months ago) it was the key issue, with the maybe/maybe not and unclear timelines on the 5% it's still a key issue.
So GGP need to keep working the room to ensure funding in place whatever the scenario - that way the 25/30% remains in our hands and the asset + miners can do their thing.