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Zoros - there are a few things you're saying today I don't really get. The high level managing expectations and your thoughts on valuation/SP I can see where you are coming from, but things like "MM's can only go on what has been independently declared not on what to expect in future...obviously" I don't understand... market makers (I assume that's what MM is in your sentence?) have been active from sub 1p to over 35p, buying and selling, acting as the middleman for the, predominantly, private investor base. Am I misunderstanding you?
Dip - that's interesting and might suggest a much more collaborative approach than just that which the contract wording could be interpreted as - hopefully they are in the midst of diligently agreeing a truly FAIR (to all shareholders) market value
In amongst the various themes, it always seems that the naysayers forget how rapidly this company and Havieron project has been developing, and also how rare it is for a shiny new major underground mine to be developed! The decline started less than a year ago.. Whilst it's fair for people to have different points of view on value and SP, I think if people look at on the context of how it's developed and importantly why NCM are throwing the kitchen sink at it, they can get more comfortable about where this is going to go - then the question is really about when and whether momentum can push the share price ahead of the value curve, which I expect it can..
Trippy - I agree. I respect Zoros view but disagree with it. Yes, share prices are driven by value of known assets, but also expected value of future assets and income, basically, sentiment around future value - that's why momentum is so important, a series of good news leads can be worth greater than the sum of its parts to SP level. Shares trade all the time at big premiums or discounts to calculated asset values - hence GGP management job is not only to do all the right things, but also to keep telling the growth story e.g., why should someone buy shares at a premium to current asset/income value. I'm sure the mgmt team are flat out working on the chunky items that will be critical to GGPs position and market sentiment and we know there will be lots to hear soon - hopefully all good...
Starbright - good luck with trying to track down the fund - I couldn't, likely because the value is too low to be made available in any public JPM documentation?
Worth noting that JPM may well have a long GGP position(s) within their fund/holdings portfolio somewhere.
Also - as others have mentioned, whilst it may reflect some negative sentiment from a JPM fund manager somewhere, it is what it is. Doesn't change the fundamentals and at the end of the day every share has to have an owner. If GGP were desperate to raise funds right now then there would be a reason for some annoyance...but we did that recently (at 14.5...enough said), so no issue there. The whole 'going for the jugular' storyline doesn't add up...for those who use it, please explain it!
Dillon - for JPM/their investors - worst case is the loses they suffered on their position today continue to increase over coming days. However, their position is tiny in comparison to the value of the investments they manage so, given their downside risk can be much larger than their upside, they would likely pull the plug and lick their slight wounds if SP continues to increase as it did today or sees steeper increases as the news flow develops over the next month.
Zoros - that looks like a good approach. Whether NCM/GGP have further info that would change the broker views, who knows, but a nine figure sum, closer to 200 than 100 would be very nice.
One interesting wrinkle - if, for example, NCM said 150, GGP said 200, and independent agreed 200 was closest - then NCM could either pay the 200 OR drop the option. Unlikely but interesting outcome...
All things considered it seems clear that it is in all shareholders interests for them to get their heads together to agree the value.
Fowldzy - I think your point is obvious. GGP will sell 5% of Hav, which equates to 16.6% of their Hav holding. Whilst Hav is GGPs main asset there is not a 1 - 1 relationship to GGP's market cap (unless all other GGP assets are assumed worthless and the SP accurately reflects a mechanical valuation/estimate).
Mumbo - I think your simple logic and understanding of how something may be valued could be resulting in a pessimistic view e.g., by thinking along the lines of "To me, if results are still pending then they cannot be included." - surely risk/probability factors will come into the assessment rather than effectively assuming that anything pending (or even yet to be drilled) is 'free' to NCM?
Monty - the FMV figure is clearly going to get a lot of attention, but I think the updated MRE + the fact that NCM have chosen to trigger the option that's most important for shareholders - in my view much more important than the amount NCM pay for the 5% (and how e.g., cash, GGP share of costs/capex, etc.).
Paulie - I tend to disagree. The FMV figure will, I believe, be less 'forward looking' than what may be reflected in the SP at any point in time.
One way to think about it is look forward to post the 5% acquisition - the outcome (whatever the price) - will be GGP has 25% of Hav + the other assets (inc. mgmt team etc.) + a sum of cash to be used as mgmt see fit + a major miner as JV partner with 75% of Hav and huge incentive to get it producing as much as possible for as long as possible. The SP should reflect those fundamentals.
Of course the FMV will put a point in time valuation on the asset, but the asset will evolve over the coming months and years so value will change over time.
Dartron - i agree - whilst the morale on here may be low for some (as per Sharky), the morale at GGP seems to be very very positive, just take a look at recent Twitter posts etc.
Lots of news to come over the next few weeks which, I for one, am very optimistic about!