RE: Bargain time?15 Oct 2018 10:36
Yep, poor statement, and I guess the recent share price direction over recent weeks was hinting at this, but putting emotion/disappointment aside, where does this leave us? The Company is talking about an £18m hit this year relative to their forecasts. Leaving aside the weather, £8m due to FX, which is clearly an error by someone, but also a one-off. Any way, profit last year was £97m, and expectations were for 10% growth this year. Taking account of the hit, I think £85m should definitely be achievable, which is EPS of 80p. So stock now on 10x this years' depressed earnings. Next year, the comparison should be very favourable given no FX charge, plus (on the balance of probability) colder weather. For me, that's attractive. Clearly risk here, and the fall over the last 6 months is painful, but a strong buy here for the next 18 months in my view.