Member Info for MattTheBrave

So you take some profit ahead of 27th, and await pricing of the issue (which is always below current price at the time and has usually fallen a few days before as well), and buy it back then. I managed to buy at 760p the day the last issue was announced.

Just to be clear, the lock-up is for initial/start-up investors who sold shares as part of the IPO (as opposed to II's who bought shares in the IPO). This lock-up is 180 days after admission date (30/4) which is, as Jayne says, 27 October. I do think there is likely to be a further issue quite shortly after that, so some profit taking ahead of it might be warranted......?

Interesting, but it simply talks about trades, not revenue, and hence it's hard to work out significance for IG as a whole?

Lucy - I'm puzzled. You have approached two local authorities who have said they aren't paying anything to one RP, and for you, this means what? That CIV are literally not receiving the money they say, or are getting it form somewhere else? That their accounts are a complete work of fiction and they've managed to hood wink, auditors/regulator/govt/investors for a long period of time? I'm struggling to see you argument above simply looking for reasons to worry people given your short position?

The dividend question is a good one. Why might they pay a dividend if they can't really afford it? Same reasons as many companies have done in the past (Aviva, Glaxo,etc etc). Firstly, stopping a run on the share price short term is all about confidence, and paying the divi can give this for a period, even if unsustainable - it's certainly worked on you two! Secondly, and most cynically, the management are all big shareholders so the dividend is a way for them to take money out of the Company without selling shares (which would be disastrous for the share price). Now, I'm not saying this is happening at MCRO, but simply to say everything must be fine on the debt as they are paying a dividend is flawed in my view.

* 'Stock can tend toward ZERO' should have been the first line.

Stock can tend toward if the market believes they won't be able to refinance in the future. The banks or an asset stripper then move in, and SHs get nothing. Either way, it's still the debt mountain that's the problem.

US Big Tech stock simply go up and down inversely with US treasury yields, essentially because the value of these stocks is very sensitive to the discount rate used in long term DCFs (they stopped being valued on traditional PE ratios some years ago) which is driven by treasuries. This doesn't apply to MCRO, which is arguably a short duration stock. Just a greater confidence that it won't go bust is likely to result in a significant move upward as the market refocuses on trad PE and yield metrics.

roddw1 - if you genuinely believe that there is ZERO to worry about regarding the debt, you need to stop risking your children's inheritance by investing in shares. If the equity market believes they will/might have trouble rolling the finance in 2-3 years time (because debt will be even larger relative to cash flows) it will begin discounting that news in the share price now.

Lee - Ebitda did not fall due to any exceptionals. It's 40 m n fall was completely driven by to the $70mn fall in revenues . Yes Debt went down as well, but not as much in % terms as Ebitda, and hence the ratio worsened, and it's this ratio which is key, NOT the absolute level of debt.

opul - Actually, DT still 10% below £10 all time high. It is also a very different business to MCRO, and not a good comparison IMV.

Mark - The goodwill which they have to write off shows exactly how much they overpaid for the assets. BTW some companies do go bust with assets greater than debt if the banks decide to foreclose to get at that value now rather than wait and risk incompetent management destroying the value of those assets further. In these cases, normally very little left for Share holders. Not saying that is what will happen here, but contrary to Luckystar's (somewhat bizarre) post below, debt most certainly does matter - in fact for MCRO, it's the critical issue right now.

The key for MCRO now is the Debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio (ie balancing the level of debt against the potential to pay it down). For the first half, this rose from 3.4x to 3.6x, and I think this is why the stock is down by 20% since the figures. If we can see this reverse significantly, the market will stop worry about the Company going bust, and start looking at it on conventional metrics again which would IMO result in a material increase from here. However, a further worsening, and if we see this go above 4x, I think there's further downside. In summary, I think the risk is on the upside here which is why I hold a position, but if anyone thinks this is low risk, or a no-brainer, I think you're wrong. Plenty of good businesses have died because of a debt spiral.

Get a bleeping grip - Sorry, whilst being a good update, this will not reduce volatility. The Firm will need to be more mature, and actually making a profit before that happens I think.

RiskIt - you keep bandying the term 'fair market value ' around as though that's an obvious and easily obtained figure, like it would be for the price of a share. It's not as finding recent deals on similar properties in the same area is highly unlikely, particularly in a very specific property type like social housing. Hence valuers will base their 'fair market' valuations on a range of factors such as location, type of property, and most importantly, the discounted value of cash flows ie the contractual lease agreed on the property. So, take it from me, they are a critical part of the NAV calculation as Lucy and Tom have tried to explain to you.

"....October will be another good month for October" ?? Errrrr.......?

The debt overhang is the issue - if they can make material inroads on actually paying some of it off, then the stock will begin to move. I suspect this or a bid are the only things which will get this moving up sustainably.

oh ****- Nuri's in. I've only recently bought in, and now I'm going to have to sell again - damn!

Agree with recent posts, but what cannot be denied is that CMC seems to have done much worse this year than IG or Plus where revenues have held up. This does appear to be the high vol stock in this industry which will tend to mean a lower valuation versus its peers.

No thanks from me. This isn't customer reviews, it' s employee reviews, which can be skewed by a small number of disaffected employees. Quite possible that Vertica is less good at weeding out the chaff than DT. Anyway, shouldn't you be posting this on the DT Board?
PS I hold both MCRO and DT - I can make a strong case for both.

Petere - you're right on AVN - the point is that investors here need to learn by the experience and not make it elsewhere. One of the reasons I got out was learnings from other holdings that went wrong. Dan is clearly an investor who has learned from the AVN experience and will be a better investor for it. KPatel, tyche and many others here, sadly, have learned nothing it seems. :-(