Member Info for mattlilly

I suspect the MMs are walking this down knowing they have at least one big seller still in the background

But the big question is...who's buying...?

55 million shares have changed hands in the last 9 days...that's more than a quarter of the shares in issue...

Even on the declared holdings the big holders have sold 14 million shares in that time.

But if they were all determined to get out, their total holdings before they started were 36% and that's more than enough for a bidder like Stobart to get a stranglehold, because there wouldn't be much serious resistance now if a bid came in at say 30p...

So while the MMs may be accumulating buys knowing they have a 'distress' seller, the SP has stayed extraordinarily resilient...

Forget the downgrades...analysts are very clever at shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted...

Watch this space...

Post of the day mate!

But while everyone's mentioning Newcrest, remember that DGR Global have 11%...surely there's a price at which they would sell...?

(In fact right now they are a dirt cheap way into SOLG, with five other tier one investments thrown in for free...)

AIMHO as usual...

Not entirely surprising...they were jacked on unfounded bid rumours, which the company put to bed. (Someone is trying to sell a stake it seems...)

The FTSE 100 is down 500 points in 3 weeks.

Copper is struggling to get above $2.80 because of the Trade Wars fears.

The Astor decision still hasn't been passed down and...

The worst case scenario is that we get the 3rd quarter figures and then the Astor judgement...

Which is why I'm still keeping my powder dry...

GLA

Spread widened to 12% for 10 minutes and only 7 bargains reported since 10.23...

I suggest there's a big buying order being worked among the MMs...

Clearly you're a shorter.

Cash of £93m at 31 March; relatively little cash burn (compare EBITDA with Pre-Tax Loss; the latter is after non-cash items)

Not buying planes - operating leases

STOP SCAREMONGERING

For those who can't be bothered to read accounts...

Stobart's profit last year included a one-off £124m received from the sale of a business they disposed of.

Also, they've spent a substantial amount developing their new revenue streams, including £18 million of "marketing and route development" with FLYB at London Southend Airport. Hence the loss on aviation activities, but these are one-off costs.

And for those who are talking about FLYB's losses and running out of cash...

Apart from the fact they had £95m cash at 31 March...

In 2017.18 they generated £13.8 million POSITIVE cashflow from the business. The £19m loss was after a raft of NON-CASH accounting adjustments...

And BTW the forecast loss this year (which will still produce POSITIVE operating cashflows, thereby NOT depleting the cash position (unless they repay more debt - last year £26 million repaid), of £12m is £7m LESS than last year.

So credit needs to go to the Board for the substantial savings generated, but there are clear factors such as Sterling and Fuels Costs which are wholly outside their control.

But every UK airline is suffering the same way and the answer is higher ticket prices...

IMHO this share is CHEAP AS CHIPS, but it is being shorted to oblivion. When the shorts close, watch this rocket...

Especially if there is a Stobart bid...

The £59 million is NET DEBT AFTER the £95m cash...but your Net Assets figure is correct per my earlier post...

I have 40,000 bought yesterday. I agree your bullish scenario...

Have a good one

Shorts closing...

Directors buying....

Major holdings announcement (especially acquirer of Dreyfuss holding)...

Bid approach...

I'm fully invested now...

GLA

From the last Accounts, current as 19th June 2018....

"The Group has received a number of early stage bid proposals this year, none of which are now active as they failed to meet the value and deliverability requirements of the Board. However, the Board believes that they illustrate the strategic importance of Flybe to UK regional connectivity."

Surely one of those will materialise....Stobart is the most likely following their concrete approach at (58p?) and their partnership with FLYB? At 10 May STO had Net Assets of £406 million; Net Current Assets of £60 million.

Mcap £806 million today, cf FLYB £32 million...small change for a possible shares based takeover...?

AIMHO as usual...

Anything 10.25 or over is a Buy...I'm back in for the long haul at 10.25...

Hi DC

Just check back on the previous RNSs. BMO Capital Markets have been Joint Broker for almost 2 years. They are the Capital Markets arm of Bak of Montreal...

Just got round to reading that fascinating article Ken.

IMHO...get the Astor ruling out of the way...I then expect to be back in, hopefully lower than this...then off to the races...

GLA

I'm surprised at your graceless and 'bitter'(?) comments about me here and elsewhere Mr O.

Studied and waited...reading between the lines, wouldn't take much for this to be chucking off cash...

So...quintupled my holding at 1.75...

GLA

OK so I've just sold out again at 260p...a profit is a profit...

Still concerned about the Astor ruling and the limited upside when this and capital considerations for Toure are announced...

Back at the year high, so good enough for me...I'll be back if they drop lower again...

Meanwhile still holding a total of 400k SOLG between us...

Very bullish about copper long term but is the trade war escalates it will hit metals short term...SOLG is now a takeover story IMHO...

GLA

Yes but Origin is mentioned...

very strong silver today...short squeeze? NAV today represents a 21.5% uplift on the closing price...ridiculous... the last time silver was at this price GPM was 12% higher than today... Beautiful 'cup and handle' forming in the silver price...Gold/silver ratio already falling (below 80 now)...much further to go... If silver drags gold with it, we're off to the races because gold/silver miners are very depressed relative to precious metals prices and every dollar rise adds a dollar directly to the bottom line... AIMHO as usual...

15k 15k ad 20k today are all my buys...between 30.25 and 30.295... Massive discount to today's NAV of 36.1p... Silver at highest for 2 months...bashing on the door of a 10 week high and then we're off to the races... Will JPM let it go this time...?

Sorry Mr O...nobody is getting these...holding for dividends and more profits in our ISAs... Well done to all that have stuck it out...

Well done for hanging on, Mr O. But I can't be wrong to have taken c�100k cash profit out of these? Some of which is being put to good use elsewhere, e.g. trading VILX, but also have been adding some sexy miners and a few oilers which are at a similar stage to ATYM was 15/18 months ago... Take RMM for example, which I have previously held, took a small gain, bought in lower today...copper/gold play; Sandstorm is a major holder; excellent RNS today...Brokers predicting a maiden profit this year, with EPS forecast at 1.84p on a current SP of 7.75p...can't go wrong...? Meanwhile, 70% of what I've taken in profits in ATYM is sat in cash, waiting for the market correction... Good luck mate, but ask yourself if you'll make as much in ATYM in the next 1/2 years as you might make elsewhere? And I'm not talking about frothy 'BB ramps'; I'm talking about stocks like KCC, which is a steal ATMO at 15/16 cents... If you'd like a list of pre-production stocks I've bought, message me on ADVFN. I'm not posting this over there because Erric might moderate it... AIMHO as usual...