Member Info for mattlilly

" Therefore, we have concluded that there is a material uncertainty, that may cast significant doubt, that the group will be able to operate as a going concern"

Unless you get a bid, it would be very dangerous to buy this...the risks are...COVID19 worst still to come...and...Russia can survive for 6 years at $25 a barrel according to Bloomberg...

Not deramping...I'm genuinely interested in buying but too risky right now...

AIMHO as usual and GLA

Sorry...forgot the link...

http://www.citibank.com/tts/sa/conference/tfc/2015/docs/presentations/0507_georges_romano.pdf

The link below gives credible insights into the value of such credit facilities...based on this analysis it appears that funding at between 1.9% and 2.1% is highly achievable...that massively improves the financial attractions of the package...I am clear that the Ecuadorian would be directly or indirectly underwriting the financing which would be VERY bullish...

In the mean time re comments below, if SOLG has had even an informal bid approach they have to declare it to the market...WHEN that happens, whether for Cascabel or SOLG itself, BOOMMM!!!

AIMHO as usual...

Sorry for typo... should be "NM wouldn't cave"...

Across mining and oil we are about to see a flurry of bid activity...Co's like TLW and PMO are vulnerable...

I see an opportunistic bid from the likes of Newmont or Barrick as being highly possible...

Of course NM wouldn't have, but why not sell Alpala to the highest bidder and use the proceeds to fund his dream to be a major mining Co.

EACH of those six regional targets has the potential to be another Alpala...

Simples...

And if he does go ahead to develop Alpala, Govt backed funding is now the cheapest since the Great Depression in the 1930s...

Happy Days!

Forget all the rubbish about the company...just watch Bloomberg...very very strong negative predictions...the US 10 year bond has fallen to 0.74%...it was over 2.80% a couple of weeks ago...

We have prospective panic in coronavirus and actual panic in the market...I'm making a bomb on VILX as Volatility rockets and its hedging my whole portfolio...\

And here's the thing...

If you're one of seven to ten prospective bidders for SOLG, you've got to decide how long you risk leaving it to make a bid...

First mover will have the advantage, but it will almost certainly provoke a bidding war...

Some of these guys don't need to borrow to make a bid, even at £1 to 2 billion...they either have the resources already or they could offer part or all shares...

Clearly Newcrest and BHP can't bid right now, but there is no bar on say Barrick, Newmont, London, Sibanye, etc...and if they bid high enough they could swing the Newcrest and BHP shares into the bid, plus the likes of Blackjack...

So if you're shorting this or deramping it right now, beware...a serious bid approach would see the shares rocket well beyond the first bid on speculation of a countered and...the shares could be suspended...

Finally...if you're a cruise line, an airline, a manufacturer, etc. you risk losing business you will never get back and you may go bankrupt...

If you're an existing miner, you're losing sales revenue on lower demand and that leads so profit warnings, but...

If you're an explorer/developer, all your assets are still sat in the ground...they aren't going anywhere and, if you've got loads of gold, the assets are actually going to increase...

AIMHO as usual...

PS in a market like this, all the stuff about PFS, resource updates etc is just a sideshow...which miners can ride out the crash stronger...they can bid...and SOLG can stop drilling and ride out the crash, after which there will be the mother and father of a rebound...just look at the Job Creation figures from the US today...blew the forecasts apart...350,000 jobs created in FEBRUARY...despite COVID 19

OK I get the fact that the `sp is down tom its lowest level for 3 years and may fall further..."its the market stupid..."

This is falling on m~M markdowns and steady selling by PIs...

No loss is a loss until it is taken...

But lets get real...

For all those that keep banging on about SXX...I'm sorry you lost money...it is a POLYHALITE mine, not potash...the CEO spun it and spun it...all the forward contracts were conditional...it was never going to fly...

But at SOLG, ALPALA ALONE HAS OVER 80 MILLION OUNCES OF GOLD equivalent so far...that's $130 BILLION of gold at current prices....and some are forecasting gold up to $5,000 an ounce...that's $400 BILLION...

"Alpala has produced some of the greatest drill hole intercepts in porphyry copper-gold exploration history, with over 227,768 m of diamond drilling completed on the Project since discovery. The Project has defined to date 8.4 million tonnes of contained copper and 19.4 million ounces of gold in Indicated Resources, and 2.5 million tonnes of contained copper and 3.8 million ounces of gold in Inferred Resources (MRE#2), which translates into 86 million gold equivalent ounces." Source: Management Discussion and Analysis, 14 February 2020

SOLG's MCap is £300 million...that's 0.25% of the KNOWN reserves...

And that takes no account of the other prospects, several of which have been drilled with extraordinary samples of copper, gold or both...

It hurts being so low when analysts value this at up to 130p...but virtually all my other holdings are showing a loss and its time to hold tight...and be patient...

But I'm not...I've just bought another 100,000 at 14.80...

Sleep tight and ignore the trolls who take pleasure in scaring other people...

So you're a holder and you're enjoying all the negative noise are you...?

And if you are a holder, how do you think it helps...?

A friend who is into SOLG asked me today if its OK...

BHP and Newcrest have 15% was my answer...

I think we have two fundamental problems here...

1 Far too many people on BBs want to 'get rich quick'...they've seen the pump and dump share price coups, they've even seen SOLG go from coppers to 46p and from 21p to 42p...and they think that will happen again...

2 They simply don't appreciate that developing a major mine takes a heck of a long time...especially for a 'virgin' like Solgold...

It may...15p is ridiculously weak, but it gets there because MMs push the price down and tired, lazy or greedy holders dump their shares or moan on BBs...

65% of the shares are in tight hands...are they dumping their shares...?

Just take a look at Atalaya Mining...OK HAA didn't do a great job and Alberto came along and got it sorted, but they acquired an existing known mine that RTZ had abandoned...EMED (the forerunner of ATYM) floated at the equivalent of 260p...they rose to 820p within 3 years and then drifted.....while it took so m much time to get all the same things sorted that SOLG are going through...by the time they were 18 months from full production the SP had drifted down into the 70s as tired PIs threw the towel in and share issues took their toll...I managed to average down to 80p and made a killing when they rose to 260p after full production...but my original purchase was made at 330p...

My first purchase here was made at 22, I sold the lot at 35/42 and gradually bought back and my average is 22p...I actually bought 200k the other day at 16.80 but sold them yesterday at 17.20 on the realisation that coronavirus is not going away soon and that mines like Cascabel have a belter skelter ride to production...

This is by far my biggest holding in any share and I will hold until well after production except...

I totally support NM trying to buy Cornerstone's stake...whether he sells out Cascabel or takes it two production, he will get a far better return if he holds the lot...if he suspends drilling he has enough cash to squeeze CRGs pips dry...

And in the worst case, BHP, Newcrest or one of the other 'biggies' buys Cascabel at, say 40p, leaving SOLG with enough funding to develop all its other concessions and become the major mining company NM dreams off...

So, if you're not committed to the long term here, please sell up and go away rather than constantly moan or nakedly deramp...if you're holder you're damaging your own wealth...if you're not, please just fudge off...

And for those that want to stay, either hang on tight and go and play golf, or average down as I have...I haven't got it right yet, but I believe in this company and its astonishing portfolio...

It just takes far longer than you think and than most people's patience can stand...

AIMHO as usual...

The truth

6 January
KEFI Minerals (AIM: KEFI), the gold and copper exploration and development company with projects in the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, is pleased to advise that, further to the announcement made on 17 December 2019, in relation to the Company's Tulu Kapi Gold Project (the "Project"), the subscription agreement into the Project company, Tulu Kapi Gold Mines Share Company ("TKGM") was duly executed by ANS Mining Share Company ("ANS Mining") on Sunday 5 January 2019 after it had completed its own internal processes in accordance with local procedures.  The existing TKGM shareholders, KEFI and the Ethiopian Government, have also  approved the issue of TKGM shares to ANS Mining.
31 January
KEFI Minerals (AIM: KEFI), the gold exploration and development company with projects in the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, is pleased to advise that in relation to the Company's Tulu Kapi Gold Project (the "Project") a General Meeting of Tulu Kapi Gold Mines Share Company ("TKGM") has been convened for 14 February 2020 (the "Meeting"), to formalise the final and procedural sign-off of all matters required for the release of funds from ANS Mining Share Company ("ANS Mining") to TKGM.
The subsequent transfer of the first funds from ANS Mining to TKGM is expected to occur following the Meeting. As previously announced, the total ANS Mining commitment is US$38 million with the first US$9.5 million (Ethiopian Birr equivalent) being unconditional and subsequent amounts in accordance with the conditions previously indicated.
17 February
Following the passing of the resolutions at the TKGM General meeting, arrangements will now proceed for the closing of the first subscription funds from the private sector partner ANS Mining Share Company ("ANS") to TKGM in accordance with agreed documentation and standard local procedures, beginning with the notarisation and registration of the approved shareholder resolutions with the Ethiopian Department of Trade.  Closing with the Ethiopian Government sector partner had already occurred. As previously announced, the total ANS commitment is US$38 million with the first US$9.5 million (Ethiopian Birr equivalent) being unconditional and subsequent amounts in accordance with the conditions previously outlined.
28 February
Ethiopia's Tulu Kapi Gold Project (the "Project")
·    The commencement of the off-site development programme for the Tulu Kapi Gold Mine in late 2019 and closing with KEFI's public sector equity partner.
·    The next steps are to:
o  launch the on-site development and community resettlement;
o  execute all documentation, which is well advanced, for KEFI's private sector equity partner ANS Mining Share Company ("ANS"); and
o  complete scheduled preparations and finance milestones leading to major works starting in the local dry season from October 2020.

I think people got ahead of themselves...piled in and then dumped on disappointment...

I can't find anywhere a statement saying the ANS funding would be imminent.

Here are the two key statement extracts:

17 February

"Following the passing of the resolutions at the TKGM General meeting, arrangements will now proceed for the closing of the first subscription funds from the private sector partner ANS Mining Share Company ("ANS") to TKGM in accordance with agreed documentation and standard local procedures, beginning with the notarisation and registration of the approved shareholder resolutions with the Ethiopian Department of Trade. Closing with the Ethiopian Government sector partner had already occurred. As previously announced, the total ANS commitment is US$38 million with the first US$9.5 million (Ethiopian Birr equivalent) being unconditional and subsequent amounts in accordance with the conditions previously outlined......

The formal TKGM shareholder meeting was an important step for this closely co-ordinated public-private-partnership for Ethiopia's first modern mine in decades and has now cleared the way for the closing of the ANS equity subscription...."

28 February

"The next steps are to:

o launch the on-site development and community resettlement;

o execute all documentation, which is well advanced, for KEFI's private sector equity partner ANS Mining Share Company ("ANS"); and

o complete scheduled preparations and finance milestones leading to major works starting in the local dry season from October 2020."

As somebody who experienced HAA's incompetence at ATYM and has been in and out here due to his over-promising and under-delivering, I can understand why PIS constantly overreact both ways...

Based on construction commencing "from October 2020", we can expect steady progrssion from here, punctuated by the ANS announcement at some time when no doubt the shares will spike and fall back yet again...

Meantime try to remember the underpinning here is the gold price...

AIMHO and GLA

I noticed that as well...never seen it before...hoping to break it today...

That's me...

See my latest post on ADVFN and lets wait for the Friday webinar...it would be friday, wouldn't it...ho hum...

My 2x200,000 buys sub 1.17 at c12.15 today still haven't shown up...

"One of the best times to invest in a mining stock is during the construction/pre-production period when a qualified ‘single’ ore body mining management team is going about the work of 'making mines'."

"Over the past thirty years, according to an investing source within the Oxford Club, upon identifying ten such companies, all but one had equaled or exceeded their discovery highs by more than 100%! The price rises from their confirmation/disinterest lows to their production/cash flow highs had produced 300-1000% gains."

https://www.karlschempp.com/documents/How%20to%20profit%20from%20buying%20mining%20stocks.pdf

This strategy worked very well for me with ATYM...(averaged down to 80p and sold out at 190/260p)...

I know by definition SOLG is a punt, but the ore is there...there is a huge amount of gold which is not properly taken account of yet...and there are all the barely or under drilled tenements, any of which could be anther Cascabel...

So the suggestion that SOLG production capex has to start by end 2020 is right on the money based on the above treatise...

After all, who has the REAL power here? We don't, we're just small PIs...

The real power is with NM (lets hope he is making the right calls), BHP/Newcrest and any predators that may be circling (remember NMs quotable quote...)

AIMHO as usual....

Only time will tell, but I've just piled in another 200,000 and had to pay from under 16.70 up to 16.96 and couldn't buy in 100s so had to buy in 50s...

Fingers crossed and GLA...!

If this closes at or close to the high of the day, that's very bullish...!

19.4 million ounces...that's $32 BILLION at current prices...

In August 2016, Gold was $1350; silver was $20 (despite JPM); FRES over 2000; and HOC almost 300...

Gold now $1638...FRES produces 876,000 ounces of gold (over $1.4 billion), HOC 275,000 ounces (over $450 million)

A long way to go guys...and the US equity markets haven't even cracked yet...who says $5,000 gold is impossible...

FOMO has driven US equities to crazy heights...fear of losses will cause a massive crash because there is very little liquidity for when people are desperate to sell (Fed has been propping up market liquidity)...

Once gold gets a grip, FOMO will drive it forward and then silver will catch fire...

In the aftermath of the 2008 crash, the Gold Silver ratio rose to 80...it then fell to 32 over the next 2.1/2 years to 26 April 2011 as silver caught up big time, hitting almost $50 just two days later...

Even at a long run average of 50 times, silver should be $33 right now and FRES would be well north of 2,000...

Keep the faith...