Newcrest, BHP or who else...?8 Apr 2020 11:28
This is simply an opinion...
I have felt strongly recently that NM would be prepared to sell Alpala to fund becoming a major producer from the other prospects...(remember the recent RNS where he said they had six more like Alpala...)
I wonder if the reason why BHP did not want a seat at the table was because they did not want to compromise their independence and being able to bid...
I believe Newcrest are there genuinely as a prospective partner to block cave mine the prospect. Maybe NM also sees them as a 'poison pill' in the event of a bid...they clearly aren't as strong as other prospective bidders financially and could surely only consider a ************** based bid. That's not going to happen.
So I stick with my considered view that S/O will bid shortly (Barrick, London, Newmont or whoever)...that will release BHP to be able to make a counter...the end game is NM sells Alpala but keeps SOLG...
But unless there is a bid beforehand I expect the CGP takeover to go ahead...CGP up 11.11% overnight to their highest for 5 weeks...
I believe that the reason why NM is so desperate to complete the CGP takeover is because it will massively strengthen his hand either in the funding round or in a bid defence...
As to today, after the 800k and 400k buys (the latter at 19.5), I think the MMs have pulled this down to rebuild their books...
AIMHO as usual and I'm always open to alternative views...1 million plus at 19.60 average and holding...