Member Info for mattlilly

I have HOC as well...in at 158p...still undervalued...also GPM...can't believe its still at 32/34, when the NAV is over 42 and it has been far higher on lower gold prices in the past...

GLA...to infinity and beyond.....

People compared TYM...results out today...since yesterday flew from 20 to 88.5, back to 31 and closed at 37....up 87% from yesterday...not bad...

Similarly here...Zoomed 190% to 27...slid to 14.2...bounced to 20.9 and has hit 15.1 support three times...closed up 68%...

Of course there are always clever clogs who buy at the bottom and sell at the top...well done...I'm in at an average 12.1 and very happy to hold...

Monecor completely out now?

6th November: "We have also carried out extensive sampling over the Rock House area and expect to announce these results shortly, once analysis and internal review has been completed."

10th January: "The terrain at the RH Group is easily accessible which will make further exploration work relatively straightforward to accomplish. Updated maps and sampling results will shortly be posted to our website and we will update shareholders on our progress in this exciting area."

Plus today's tweet and picture of trenching beginning...

Lets see what tomorrow brings...RNS...?

Waiting for the flag breakout...19p should do it....

Market size is still quoted as 200,000 shares, i.e. £200 yesterday, but deals have been done at £9/£10k today...of course most of the placing shares may have been cleaned out, but plenty of trades have been done at 20/25 times the market size today...

Waiting for the second wave...

Bounced off resistance at 25/30p...recharging...if we go through that, next targets are 38/40, 50/55 then 90/110...

We're already at the second highest daily volume ever and could even set a record by COB...

AIMHO as usual...

B****y predictive text...raMPers, shORters and traders...Bah humbug!

60% of MCap traded so far today...of course there will be rappers, shooters and traders, but it seems to me a lot of people may have been waiting on the sidelines for an opportunity to buy, because liquidity was not great up to last week...when the SP shifts like this, suddenly it becomes much easier to get what you want, even if you have to pay up...

All those referring to a far higher price from 3 years ago need to realise this is a very different company now...and the Gold price was under $1200 back then...

Gold is the highest its been for almost 7 years and, the way the chart is looking could easily eclipse the all time high of $1900 this year...

Gold mining shares and especially the silver price and silver mining shares have been left way behind...

Look at GPM for example...current price 32p but the NAV will probably be printed at 42p today...

Loads of value and GWMO still looks massively underpriced on any drill news or especially JV...

Holding long and strong despite a 130% gain earlier today...

AIMHO as usual and GLA

Dear Sir..."Rio production will peak in the next year or so..."

What?

So with Trafigura on the Board, they ramped up production to 15m Tonnes...that would be economic suicide if your statement were correct...

The thing is, you haven't even considered the copper ore that is as yet unmanned/undeveloped on the existing Rio Tinto site...

Your analysis of other opportunities is sound, but credible analysts are now forecasting substantial copper supply deficits starting next year at the latest...existing mines are running down...no real immediate major prospects (but SOLG's Alpala within 4 years, which is why i'm in there big time)

Mr O knows what he is talking about and Alberto seems pretty chilled...

AIMHO as usual...

Not entirely surprising...Touro is in for nowt...full Mark's to the guy who bought 10000 at 183...patience is a virtue...meanwhile piled into KAZ yesterday at 454...cheap as chips...GLA from the Maldives...

Look...lets be frank...with what FRES has in the ground, this is a naked GPM play...

Utterly unreal atmosphere in the US Stock markets...liquidity melting away...new highs set on declining volume...volatility almost extinct...Trump like the other dinosaurs ready to disappear...US China Trade agreement is a mirage...

Just needs one grey swan, let alone black, for gold to fly and silver to push on to $21, on the way to $50...and FRES has more gold by value than silver...

Prepared to wait...FRES+SOLG+ATYM+NG+GPM+CAML just about sums up my current portfolio...

AIMHO as usual...

Peel Hunt have a 70p price target on the stock.

"SolGold (Buy) - Well prepared for year ahead - The MRE#3 and PFS for Alpala are on track for completion, while drilling at Blanca has already returned strong results. With costs reined in and capex spend tight for next year, SOLG looks to have better financial flexibility going into 2020."

Looks like a sell and buyback...1 minute apart... (rollover)...maybe somebody bought on a T20...

Meanwhile...

"they should have gone for a straight equity raise in my view and that’s likely where we are heading"

There's only three ways out of this IMHO...

Either the bankers fund it through a convertible at way below the current price (and then its taken private), or...

Massive dilution, which will come way below the current SP, or...

Buyout at a rock bottom price (cf FLYB),...or...

It simply runs out of cash and gets mothballed because nobody is interested...

Whichever way you look at it you'd have to conclude, sadly, that the shares are probably worth a fraction of a penny, if that...the cash counts for nothing unless the project is suspended ASAP...

AIMHO

Its like watching close friends passing away slowly...

This is key...

'"The Board considers that a reduced pace of development focused on key areas of the project that will ultimately serve to preserve the most value for the project...'

Somebody bought 200,000 at 22.035 after the close...

Can't be far off...£500k buy at 641.20...whether a short closing or a buy, augurs well!

Here's a personal view....

Yes the production report was disappointing, but the SP bounced to 646p on the news...

There is good reason to believe that a 'Double Bottom' was completed on 16 October.

Yes today's price has slipped back a bit, but there are signs that shorts have been closing out in the last few days, including today.

I suspect the market was expecting this result, but there is good news on zinc, lead and future projects in the RNS.

More important:

I estimate the average silver and gold price achieved by Fresnillo in Q3 will have been 12% ($14.70/$17.00) and 11% ($1300/$1470) higher than Q2.

That may be another reason why the shares weren't slammed today.

So, taking account of the lower production, I estimate FRES' profits could be $35 million higher in Q3 compared to Q2. The total profit for H1 was only $71m.

This all shows the PRICE effect of gold and silver. (And by the way, FRES will have earned 40% more gross from gold sales than silver sales in Q2...so much for it being a silver miner...)

The guidance on output, even at the bottom of the range, implies Silver output of 14 million ounces (cf Q3 12.624, i.e. up 11%) and Gold output of 238 thousand ounces (up 13%).

Even at the current prices of $17.57 and $1493, that would increase profits in Q4 by another $70 million.

(But at least one respected expert sees silver at $21 an ounce by the end of the year)

That means in total, H2 profits would be up $105 million at $176 million, cf H1 $71 million (i.e. c150% uplift).

E&OE

I would welcome alternate views...

And what makes you the great God of valuation when the average Broker forecast is 784 and the cheapest 700?

Nickel investor...we don't need ramping of FXPO on here and we sure as hell don't need you constantly telling us FRES is overvalued. Theres $19 Trillion of corporate debt, acrecession and a financial crisis coming. This is the biggest silver miner in the world with massive gold production. When the crunch comes it is what we've got in the ground that will drive the share price, while iron ore prices collapse! AIMHO ZZas usual...

FRES was 1984 on July 11 2016 (or 3.3 times it current price) when the silver price was $17.30...its now $17.30...

Given that iron ore prices have doubled since January, to c120, but FXPO has fallen 55% since April, why would you buy them instead of FRES...?

"Goldman Sachs also sees iron-ore prices being scaled back modestly in the near future, with the US banking giant forecasting a year-end price of $90 per tonne. "

Barclays downgraded from 245 to 110 on 10 October

Meanwhile, read the post about Brokers forecasts for FRES below

Why would gold fall to $1400...and if it did, why would silver fall to $16.50, assuming a proportionate fall?

There is $250 Trillion of debt worldwide,..the Fed is printing $billions a day...Corporate Debt is $19 Trillion and rising...in the US, much of it was used to buy back shares and those loans are maturing...Junk leveraged corporate debt could be the next 'sub-prime'

US external debt is $19 TRILLION...

So...if global debt is $250 trillion and global gold is only $10 trillion, why would gold fall to $1400 rather than rise to $2000+

And remember only three years ago, silver was $21 and 8 years ago $50!!!

There's a global financial crisis coming IMHO, but even if it doesn't, copper has better long term fundamentals than iron ore...viz SOLG., ARS, CAML, KAZ, etc...

The stock rating of Fresnillo PLC (LON:FRES) was reiterated by investment analysts at RBC Capital Markets. This was revealed to clients and investors in analysts report on Tuesday, 15 October.

Among 4 analysts covering Fresnillo PLC (LON:FRES), 0 have Buy rating, 0 Sell and 4 Hold. Therefore 0 are positive. Fresnillo PLC has GBX 1150 highest and GBX 700 lowest target. GBX 780.25’s average target is 24.96% above currents GBX 624.4 stock price. Fresnillo PLC had 24 analyst reports since April 18, 2019 according to SRatingsIntel. The rating was maintained by JP Morgan on Friday, September 13 with “Neutral”. The rating was maintained by UBS on Wednesday, June 26 with “Buy”. The stock of Fresnillo Plc (LON:FRES) earned “Neutral” rating by UBS on Friday, September 6. Barclays Capital maintained the shares of FRES in report on Thursday, July 18 with “Equal Weight” rating. The rating was maintained by RBC Capital Markets on Monday, July 22 with “Top Pick”. The company was maintained on Friday, July 5 by JP Morgan. The firm earned “Neutral” rating on Thursday, September 26 by UBS. The firm earned “Neutral” rating on Thursday, August 8 by UBS. Barclays Capital maintained Fresnillo Plc (LON:FRES) on Thursday, July 4 with “Equal Weight” rating.