Member Info for mattlilly

NM appointing Citi shows he is serious about predation...

When I was preparing a £860m flotation we appointed GS to come up with options to prevent/prepare for an unwanted bid...

One of them was the classic 'white knight' defence.

Nick keeps insisting this is going to production and one obvious way to do this while remaining on board is to get a 50/50 partner, as happened with Barrick and Newmont...

The question is, who would be acceptable to Mather...clearly not Newcrest; almost certainly not BHP; Barrick would be my bet, but actually Franco Nevada makes huge sense...

Whatever happens there are plenty of candidates for SOLG, whether as partners or owners...

Its a waiting game and the current SP is irrelevant unless you've got more cash to invest...
AIMHO as usual..

The only risk is a global market collapse...

Remember there are at least six other projects that "could be as big as Alpala"...at least two of those being drilled right now have outcrops...easier to sample...

Alpala alone would be the biggest silver mine; 3rd biggest gold mine; and 6th biggest copper mine in the world...

Be patient....fireworks may start tomorrow after these 'M&A' articles.....

I can now see a rationale for NM doing this placing and extending it to $41 million:

1 BHP and Newcrest were excluded, so if either is a potential bidder, it reduces their holdings to sub 13%

2 Looking at those Market Screener figures, I cannot believe Fidelity, Bell Potter and Bank of Singapore are nominee holders for PIs in this case... I think it is much more likely that these are on behalf of three individual prospective bidders, or maybe even one, but spread around...

Hence the urgency for NM to get a load of drilling done on prospects potentially 'bigger than Alpala'....

I don't believe there is a remote hope of SOLG taking this to production. Its now about getting the highest exit price and as somebody else has said, SOLG looks like a 'sitting duck' right now.

What we urgently need is the FN signoff (and ideally indications of up to $1 billion offtake funding); and

A steady flow of drill results...

Otherwise I would have to revise my takeout price PRE October down to 40/45p...

A hostile bidder only needs 50% acceptances to make an offer unconditional. BHP+Newcrest+Fidelity+Bell Potter+CGP+Bank of Singapore adds up to 61%; without Newcrest its 48%.

So ironically we may now need to count on getting to October and BHP making a bid to get decent value.

Otherwise it could come down to how much profit these 'outside' holders are prepared to take...for a few weeks work, they may be happy to sell at 30p or so...

So we really need an auction and lets hope those three 'rogue' holdings are three different predators...

AIMHO as usual...

Market screener says 8.21%...

From time to time, I open a draft sell order to see what electronic price I get to buy a certain amount off stock...

For most of the day, I could only get a trim quote to sell 100,000...

But just before 16.30 I got a firm quote to sell 600,000 shares...

In other words, notionally the MMs were much more keen to buy my stiock...

I didn't sell of course, but it gives me at least a temporary indication of the demand for stock from Market Makers...other things being equal that would equate to higher demand from the investors who want to buy the shares...

I hope that helps...

I'm bid for 600,000 again...why at the end of the day...just like Friday...all day it has been 100,000....

Hmmmmm

Gold on a charge...

Copper still with vast potential....at $2.77 its broken out of its 2.1/2 year downtrend...next target north of $2.80 and off to the races...

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-07-02/These-two-commodities-will-dominate-2020-and-they-re-not-gold-and-silver.html

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-07-06/METALS-Copper-heads-towards-five-month-high-on-China-demand-optimism.html

Franco Nevada signoff due...

Porvenir, La Hueca, Blanca drill news...

Looks like the bid and ask spiked just before 16.30...Bid by 1% but Ask by 2.1/2%...coupled with the bid for my stock, looks like they didn't want to sell any stock just before the close...

Hi Quady...I don't have L2 so I have to do dummy sells to establish levels and volume of interest...the price in 1 share was 19.88 but in 674,000 was 19.7...sufrely says something about possible news...

Franco Nevada I'm guessing...maybe even the offer of a higher percentage of offtake...

SOMETHINGS HAPPENING... I am bid 19.7 for my entire 674,000 holding....

I bought on the completed merger news...that's one of the reasons they're up...now 95p to buy...I paid 72+...

I was just men toning in cased anybody did buy at the time...5 days ago...ATYM now 163 to buy but S/O just paid 165...

Anyhow, won't mention them again...

Hope some of you picked up on my post of 29 June...

ADT1 already up 24%; ATYM up 12%...GLA...

"ADT1 building an attractive portfolio including PGMs and copper having merged with Tethyan Resources...

ATYM...peaked at over 260p...Rio Tinto mine hitting max capacity of 15/16, 000 tonnes of copper (see June Qtr Production report due soon); already exploring for more resource onsite; Toure as yet unpermitted; throwing off cash...."

Zak Mir has a 140p target on ADT1...still under the radar...I believe their strategy is to be taken over...

Agreed!

Its why I gave up with Kincora Copper next door...too long to wait and too complex...

Iceberg...Nick has ruled out selling Alpala because of the massive tax consequences...

Copper very strong...gold and silver strong...Alpala will be the biggest silver mine, 3rd biggest gold mine and 6th biggest copper mine on the planet...

Copper is breaking out of a 2.1/2 year downtrend and above $3 will break a 9 year 'super trend' but the SOLG SP remains in a 20/21 channel...

So WHO is holding this down...?

But if this is a coiled spring, the price will catapult forwards on jus one piece of significant news...

But what...let's call it a 'white swan' event...

In the "Pacman" defence, the target company buys shares in the acquirer...therefore it seems there is no prohibition of CGP in selling or buying SOLG shares....

SOLG unchanged on the day...CGP only up 12.23% today to $3.58....

Barrick tried to take over NewMONT last year and ended up in a 50/50 JV instead...

This is significant...especially depending on who buys Newcrest's stake, because they seem no longer interested...

Sandeep Biswas gave a detailed presentation to a Bank of America Mining conference on 12 May 2020...BEFORE the placing in June...there is not a single mention of Solgold anywhere, except in a tiny flag on the global map...

Page 12 implies that they do not see a future for their investment in Solgold, because it sums up "Our operating assets, advanced projects and investments"...with no mention of Solgold...

https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2020-05/200512_BAML%20Conference%20-%20Briefing%20Book.pdf

Again..my money is on Barrick...they failed to buy Newmont, but Solgold is much smaller and more vulnerable...

AIMHO as usual...