Member Info for mattlilly

PANNING not PLANNING the FN deal...

What CGP are doing and their aggressive manner doesn't make any sense...unless...

Either it is pure vengeance by WI which will do him and his company no favours...or..

He has to have some sort of agreement with NCM...

He is planning the FN deal which means he must support equity funding, which not only is what NCM wanted, but also massive offtake offers before October bolster NMs wish to remain independent..

But...if their was massive equity dilution the only real gainers are BHP and NCM (which does of course open the possibility that BHP are CGPs partner...and they have been very quiet....)

And how on earth would CGP raise the funds to take up their equity when they've been SELLING their SOLG shares...so...

The only thing that makes any sense is if NCM/BHP have made them an offer they can't refuse, keeping them as a junior partner in Alpala and offering a ridiculous price for CGP shares, in exchange for say NCM shares...

And guess what...NCM are already a partner with CGP in Chile and with a farm in at Cana Brava in Ecuador...

So the only question is...how many counterbid will there be...if my suggestion re NCM is correct, NCM/CGP would already have an armlock on Alpala..

Final possibility...NM has to sell Alpala to NCM/CGP and everybody is happy...

AIMHO as usual...

My thought is that there is definitely a major sniffing around and it may not be either NCM or BHP...

The recent stagnant price action, while copper soared...and now organised mayhem by CGP suggests that somebody is putting them up to cause as much disruption as possible, for a guaranteed price for their shares...

These majors have huge firepower and it has recently felt like Nick has been pushing water uphill...

Our only salvation may be an auction between prospective bidders....I've seen so many times, predators overpaying for an acquisition and rationalising the arguments to their Board/shareholders...

This is not a giant buy for any major and its an easy case to make when you have one of the biggest gold/copper prospects in the world, a foothold in Ecuador and potentially another 5/6 Alpalas...

Its going to be a harry next couple of months...

Buckle up and bring it on...!

Barrick is still my favourite...

https://www.ft.com/content/0437bc9f-ee67-4505-ab82-45b8f641ba88

"Since taking the top job at Barrick in early 2019, Mr Bristow has been vocal about expanding into copper, which he has called a strategic metal...."

The Quote is 21.95/22.35 but I'm now bid 22.05 for 100,000...

The bid in 100,000 is up 0.2 in the last 5 minutes...

The Board may have rejected it but they only own 11.25% collectively...

There has been NO formal rejection by a m majority of shareholders...

"The takeover target urged its shareholders to reject the bid and not to take any action."

That last question was a gift from heaven...was it a set up...was he being naughty in his answer...start the clock on bid speculation...

Did he know CGP was going to turn him down before the webinar start time...? The presentation is a bit of a waste of time, based on the blank repudiation by the CGP Board. If 65% have registered against, who is he speaking to?

Nuggets from the Q&A:

Franco can waive the site visit "we expect an outcome in the near future..."

We expect "a string of them" (drill results) over the next couple of months. We've found major mineralised systems on every one of the 13 and 5 or 6 are even better than Alpala..."a flow of drilling results over the next couple of months and continuing for some time after..."

"We're working on Conditional Financing at the moment which will include offtake agreements from other providers..."

We're doing all these things in parallel.

$190 million Budget fully funded on completion of FN deal; $150m on BFS; $30m on regional exploration; $10m running costs.

CGP claim of withheld information is false. Any time there is a material change to what we have announced in the PEA we will announce it.

"I can tell you we are making significant progress with debt offtake agreements and we're making progress on other opportunities which reduce the need for equity."

"We do have the world's best exploration and finance teams behind us..."

"It was a little bit like finding an emerald in cows**t when we came across this..."

"The mind boggles as to what is underground (on these other prospects)..."

(Aguinaga) doesn't make a significant contribution (to Alpala).

"Being realistic...at some stage we shall need more equity issuance..."

"They pulled Craig Jones off the Board (he was reluctant)."

"We expect our 20 (new licence applications) to be granted when the Cadastra(?) reopens..."

Re: CGPs demand for the Board to be sacked he implied that the Government would take an interest in any attempts to destabilise Solgold. NM implied that this may be 'vengeance'.

"I can't comment on any approach that we may or may not have received that didn't have to be announced..." This may have been the most significant thing he said, because he didn't deny any approaches, implying that they may have had informal approaches...!

IMHO the only reason for NM to RNS today would be if he is revealing market sensitive information in the webinar...

I don't agree it will be a rehash, for two reasons: the last one was dull as ditchwater and he must have had that feedback via RedCloud;

Why steal his own thunder by doing the Proactive interview only a couple of days before and thereby disappointing a much bigger and more influential audience today.

I will take at face value that you don't have to RNS drill results, but canny CEOS use RNSs to their advantage, to keep shareholders hungry and their company name in the news.

So, I expect the following today:

A measured response to CGP's rejection; there is no point in him getting unpleasant but he doesn't need to set them either; all he needs to say is that the offer remains on the table until October;

Juicier news about Porvenir drilling; possible news on Blanca (which he may have held back in the Proactive interview);

More heavy hints about off takes and debt funding ("the world is awash with cheap cash looking for projects like ours...");

I would LOVE to hear that Franco Nevada is signed off...that would light the blue touchpaper again;

We may hear more about Alpala;

He'll probably give us more detail about Board and Senior Management appointments;

And I'm sure he'll reiterate about lower Opex, lower discount rates; higher gold prices....

And what we would REALLY love would be permitting news on other sites, especially Rio Amarillo

Any other suggestions...?

AIMHO as usual....

Oh and here's a shot from left field...supposing the Ecuadorian Government threatened to pull CGP's licences if they didn't accept the bid...not going to happen but that would be bonanza time for a number of reasons...

Costa do you actually read posts here...?

I summarised it in detail this morning...

Craig Jones was "pulled off..." quote.

FN deal only waiting for DD...cannot ATM because of quarantining, but looking at 'virtual' solutions...

Running PFS, data collection, financing package being conducted in parallel. We have all the geotechnical data, we're looking at production aspects at the same time.

Higher gold prices and lower discount rates being applied to PFS.

Current cash takes right up to final decision time...at least 18 months...will also fund regional assays...

Alpala is first opportunity to get cashflow....I'm not going to speculate on other parties that might like to acquire it...

By the time you apply improvements in Opex, lower discount rates and metal prices you're looking at significant improvements in the project value..."its obviously high and we're nowhere near it...I'll tell you that..."

Rigs at Porvenir looking at an outcrop 148 metres long compared to 50/60 metres at Alpala...we're even more confident at Porvenir...once we get in we'll be reporting on a hole by hole basis...

Don't apologise mate...thanks to whoever tipped me ARCM...now already up 100%...

Augurs well for SOLG if Anglo is buying into a relative minnow like ARCM...

DGR Global, 9.85% holder up 25% in a week at .069 after ,075 last night (36%)...

How would Porvenir be financed, ON TOP OF the $2.7 billion for Alpala...? And then there's the whole new MRE, PFS, DFS to prepare...loss of focus...?

The FN finance is for Alpala...flipping to mine Porvenir instead would not be well received...think of how long it's taken to get Alpala this far...mining it AS WELL using the cashflow from Alpala DOES make sense...AND Rio...

At the end of the interview he makes clear that the immediate focus is on Porvenir...

In fact he is optimistic that block caving innovation and other capex savings may bring the financing down from $2.7 billion...

Sorry Quady...he makes clear that the funding of Alpala is debt, off takes and as little equity issuance as possible, but based on project value not Market Cap...

NM makes crystal clear in the most recent interview that the FN funding is only for Alpala...