Member Info for mattlilly

Morgan Stanley, an investment bank, summed up the situation last week in a report headed "Replacing Australia", with the key findings being that for China, Australian commodities were either "too important, or too irrelevant"—with the only exception being thermal coal.

On the too-important side of the ledger are iron ore, with Australia accounting for 55% of global seaborne trade, metallurgical (steel making) coal (60%) and lithium (46%).
Those big market-share estimates, according to Morgan Stanley: "make it hard for China to replace without significant trade flow changes and/or new production requirements".
Copper and nickel feature in the "too irrelevant" category at 4% and 9% of world supply, respectively.

"Given the high quality of Australian copper and nickel concentrates, in our opinion, finding new offtake partners should be achievable," the bank said.
The labour dispute at Lundin Mining's Candelaria copper mine in Chile is a relatively small supply problem because the mine has an annual output of around 110,000 tonnes of copper, modest alongside Chile's giant mines such as Escondida.

But any supply shortfall in a tight current adds to price pressure, especially as demand for copper in China has never been stronger.

According to the latest Reuters report on copper, China imported 618,000 tonnes in October, taking imports so far this year to 5.6 million tonnes, an annual record two months before the end of the year.

China's buying is the key driver on the demand side of the copper equation. Problems in a number of South American mines is the key supply issue, with the potential for worse to come as Peru slides into another political crisis after the sacking this week of the country's president, Martin Vizcarra.

Chile also faces a new threat to its copper industry with legislation planned to ban mining in areas classified as glaciers and their surroundings, a move which has been rejected as not being in the country's interest by Sonami, a mining industry lobby group.

It is with this background of strong demand to copper metal, tightening supply and a rising price that China has put Australian copper on a banned list, adding to the problems of copper smelters and not effecting Australian miners, yet.

Meanwhile, from Mining Journal...bad news for OZ, good news for South America...

China scores an own goal in the copper game

As an example of scoring an own goal, China’s reported ban on importing copper concentrate from Australia is becoming a text-book case study, with the only people hurt, so far, being Chinese copper smelters. China's copper smelters have suffered from the country's ban on Aussie copper concentrate imports

Since news of the ban surfaced earlier this month, the price of copper has risen by US11 cents to $3.16 a pound, a rise of 3.6% in 10-days, and a move very much in favour of the miners, not the smelters.

Pure-play Australian copper producers, including Sandfire Resources and OZ Minerals, have enjoyed modest share price rises at the expense of the smelters which have been forced to secure replacement supplies in a tightening market.

According to at least one report the Chinese smelters have been forced to lower their treatment charges to secure supplies of concentrate with the latest quote being US$50 a tonne, down 30% from the treatment charge high point last March.

Not being able to buy from Australia, which has a relatively small (4%) share of the global copper market might not be such a problem for the smelters if there weren't other factors driving supplies down and the price up.

Australia being declared off-limits by the Chinese Government coincides with a long-running strike at one of Chile's biggest copper mines (Candelaria), political upheaval in Peru which could threaten supplies, and strong demand for copper metal in China's post-pandemic, financially-stimulated economy.

Sandfire, which acknowledged reports of the ban said it could ride it out by selling to other customers. Since filing a statement at the Australian stock exchange on November 3 headed: "Media speculation - China copper imports", Sandfire's share price has risen by 5%.

OZ has posted a smaller rise of 1.5% since early this month but has not publicly acknowledged the copper ban reports.

What appears to be happening in copper could also be happening in other Australian exports which China says it no longer wants because of irritation with the Australian Government's investigations into Chinese spying and demands for an independent international inquiry into the cause of the COVID-19 pandemic.

While some Australian exports to China, particularly coal might be hurt the reality, is that there are some Australian minerals China can't do without and others which are so small that the Australian exporter can easily find another market.

Perhaps the best example of the problem China is causing for itself in its hissy-fit over Australian standing up to its attempted economic coercion is a ban on Australian crayfish (rock lobster), a marine delicacy in strong demand across Asia, not just China, with volumes extremely limited because of government regulation restricting the annual catch.

Continued...

I'll take Barrick at 3/1 but you left out SOLG/BHP/(CGP?) JV...

China are at war with Australia, which is why their imports of copper from the rest of the world are booming...

"the wife'...!!!??? A commodity...?

Maybe this is the reason PJ resigned...? Who knows...

The N November Presentation said we had $115.6 million in the bank...

Yes the FN money is ring fenced, NM didn't have to say it was all for Porvenir because we're drilling three other sites, but it certainly gets me tingling. I naughty way to communicate that Porvenir is looking good...

AIMO as usual...

You might be right DBW...they got the governance issues out of the way on a slow day for markets...

My speculative order would be...

La Hueca/ Blanca initial positives....

Big update on Porvenir...1500m?...stellar grades...

Huge initial news on Rio Amarillo...exciting grades and lots of prospective gold...potentially bigger yet than Alpala and even Porvenir...

PFSand draft funding package announced at the same time...significant jump in NPV and substantial debt/streaming element..

The only other wildcard being a possible JV with BHP which would get CGP off their backs...

But if you're Barrick, BHP or the Chinese, there is a shrinking window to get your bid out there, especially while the gold price and Junior mining shares are relatively flat...

As to Newcrest, I think they're out of the picture now and the conclusion of their advisors may well have been to give them leverage and ultimately a satisfying profit when it all shakes down. They surely can't see themselves as a long term partner to SOLG now...?

AIMO as usual and open for discussion...

Or 31.4p...

Hands up anyone who thought, when Porvenir was announced on 1 October or on 1 October when we hit 43p that we would be at 31.6p on 11 November...?

I wrote to Eliza months ago asking her to tell Nick to stop overpromising and underdelivering...that was a waste of time...

On 27 July she replied: "Public corporate affairs aside, our team is busily progressing both the Alpala project and our extensive regional programme, where there is so much upside to come! "

On 17 September Nick said: "We are currently on track to complete the PFS for Alpala, the Feasibility Study in 2021, along with advance permitting, fiscal negotiations and the development funding package to align with completion of the Feasibility Study.

and

he PFS currently underway is concentrating primarily on field and laboratory work to ensure all other inputs are available as planned

On 30 September he said:

"The PFS is well advanced..."

But the November Presentation just published has a target date of End Q4...

That's what worries me Bubble...

People now expecting a vaccine by early December...it aint going to happen...and although I'm over 70, I don't expect to be in the first batch...NHS staff...frontline workers...vulnerable...care homes...

Meanwhile, although I'm behaving myself, loads of people will think its OK to start letting their discipline slip...

However, any bad news is good for gold...

2 RNSs about Management Changes and we're back almost to the level we were on April 29th...

And unless the volume improves materially we're heading for the lowest since June 24...

50% more sells than buys...no excitement...no trading...no pumping...no FOMO...no nothing...

Uh oh! As I was writing this we've popped up...don't hold your breath...

And that's a point Addickt...Nick can't have his cake and eat it...

The greater the likelihood that Alpala will be taken to production, the slower the share price appreciation as the funding implications cast a bigger and bigger cloud...

That's why we continue to need blockbuster news on the other prospects...

And while I understand your belief tat Alpala will go to production Quady, unless BHP ir NCM take a direct stake for a JV as opposed to SOLG getting a bid, the longer it will take to achieve your price target...

Everybody believes Porvenir will be at least as big as Alpala but the market is putting next to no value on it right now, because the SP was 46.5 in May 2017...over 40p in March and May 2019...over 40 when the Porvenir news hit, but right now we're back where we were in July 2019...

I also bought back into CEY at 112p+ having reversed back out of HOC...crazy cheap and Peel Hunt think so too...one for the patient few...

Agreed Colonel...as usual...

SolGold’s biggest shareholders, BHP and Newcrest, have publicly urged the junior company’s directors to raise funds via equity. They argue that approach is in the best interests of existing shareholders.

BHP (ASX: BHP), the world’s No. 1 mining company, and Newcrest Mining (ASX: NCM), Australia’s largest gold producer, were not pleased with SolGold’s decision last month to agree to an eight-month loan, with interest rates of 12%.

Newcrest, the copper junior’s second biggest investor with a 15.23% interest, even considered removing its representative from SolGold’s board.

While the surprise fundraising announced today seems in line with BHP and Newcrest’s expectations, neither will participate amid concerns over SolGold’s approach to financing.

“Newcrest will not be participating in the raising. We are disappointed with the approach that Solgold management has taken in respect to financing the company,” said a Newcrest spokesman told Australia’s Financial Review.

BHP and Newcrest’ combined 30% stake in SolGold will likely shrink through dilution in the fundraising, which the Ecuador-focused miner said created an opportunity to “broaden the company’s shareholder base through the introduction of new investors.”

I think I'll go back to ADVFN...we're talking about Bryson, the single plane swing and 48 inch drivers over there...doesn't seem to be lifting the SOLG SP though...must try something else...

I know...Quady and Miagi keep arguing over Bids, then maybe the words Solgold and Bid will gain critical mass in the internetnetosphere...and before you know it, the price is 200p...or whatever you think SOLG is worth...answers on a postcard, not here please...(come back Roger, all is forgiven...)

God you are pedantic!

A 70% Earn In is NOT a bid, even for ENSA...are NCM BIDDING for Havieron...?

You have been arguing with Quady whether there has been a BID for Solgold by BHP...

There was never a BID because as Quady correctly states, it would have had to be put before the shareholders...

A 10% stake does not qualify as a BID...

No sweat...

See the statement at the bottom of my 12.38 post also...