Member Info for mattlilly

Through first resistance...next level 24.417...

Up 4.3% in a couple of hours...

Now comfortably beating Industrial Metals sector index (up 1.5%)

Belated recognition...?

Somebody's paid way over the offer for 150,000...23.8841 vs 23.50/23.70 quote...smart move...

Maybe it is being held back...100,000 sell at 23.44 is puzzling...

How much longer can it be held back...

However, sadly its a risk off day again in the US...

Oh and of course Gold is not performing...SolGOLD...

Just watched a clip from Rick Rule on ADT1 in which he was asked whether Vares was a Tier 1...

No he said on his three criteria it was still a Tier 2:

ROCE TICK
Costs of production TICK
Scale of prospect/mine life FAIL

I expect the MRE on Porvenir to confirm that it is a Tier 1...

It would be irresponsible for `Jason Ward to say this otherwise...

" Cacharposa continues to grow and with numerous other nearby mineralised targets identified, we believe the Porvenir project has the potential to become a Tier 1 copper - gold porphyry camp."

These are terrific results and two years ago would have sent the share price spiking, but...

Too too much overhyping and sequential disappointment since...thats why we need change...

If anybody is looking seriously at buying this they must be slavering at the burgeoning riches which the market still refuses to recognise...

Only 600k shares traded today....

But...scant evidence of it being held down...maybe traders from Friday cashing in...?

Meanwhile, 1st resistance 23.885

2nd resistance 24.417

3rd resistance 25.333

And then...who knows...27 next stop after that...?

Our medium term target is to break 30p...convincingly...

Lets see what happens later today...right now we're doing no more than tracking the 'Industrial Metals' performance today...

We thought great news would be a catalyst, but its not happening yet...

Surely the best is yet to come...Rio...and another Tier 1...?

Porvenir is in the ranked drilling table along with Cascabel...

The next time this report is produced, will Rio, Blanca and Sharug be included...?

Will Solgold still be independent...?

Meanwhile I would love to know which majors are in the sub 3% category..."third parties"...?

a jester...

a person who is duped or imposed on...

a cold dessert made of pureed fruit mixed or served with cream or custard.

UT 379,499 at 23.35 but 23.60 on the ask so lets see...

Are you sure thats what you mean smickster...or do you mean liars...?

definition...

"not candid or sincere, typically by pretending that one knows LESS about something than one really does."

All of the major miners down today, but SOLG up over 4% and closing close to the high...

Must be good...

Bots seem to be buying into the close...

As novice would say...I wouldn't want to be out of this over the weekend...

Apart from the anticipated news flow, we have yet to hear from our new 'lord and master'...surely some sort of statement in the next few days, even if it comes in a drilling RNS...

Voting day approaches and the Board needs to get something out there to sway the 'floating voters'...

PFS approaching....bid possibilities increasing...

Lets see what the UT and after-hours trades bring...

I think you raise some valid points...

In the case of Diamond Fields there were three major players all interested...Teck thought they'd sown up a deal for 10% but Friedland was playing the three against each other and ultimately a bidding war between Inco and Falconbridge made Friedland a multi billionaire...

We would have no idea at this stage if a major or majors had made an approach to buy a stake or further stake in Solgold, or especially any joint venture talks for the major or minor projects. It is only when a deal is done that we would be told.

We also don't know what Solgold's bid defence strategy is. The Alpala PFS wouldn't stop it, it would only make SOLG more attractive and/or enhance bidding interest if its out there.

So you're right...an outright bid makes more sense, but...

In order to do that, either a non-player has to acquire a position through the markets (e.g. by buying a stake from another player, such as CGP or NCM) but the price would have to be much higher than 45p this time around...

Or a 'player' i.e. BHP, NCM or even Valuestone would have to persuade another stakeholder to sell a chunk. This was the basis of BHP's initial strategy. They bought the Guyana Goldfields stake and then made a bid approach.

CGP would increase BHP's stake to over 20%, which is meaningful, but what price would they or NCM would be prepared to sell at...in the former case I believe way north of today's price (although their need is greater than NCM's and they could still retain their stake in ENSA)...NCM might sell for less given that their holding is now 'strategic'.

So either might be prepared to sell for say 60/70p....

But as soon as that was announced, I'm certain it would trigger a bidding war.

You make a very good point about a takeout of SOLG at even £1 being 'small change' (i.e. $2 billion plus from a 'warchest' of $20 billion or more.

But other major players have plenty of bidding power, even if they don't hold a stake...because they could offer shares plus cash.

Barrick MCap $32.47
Fortescue $52.65
RIO $101.5
Glencore $63.02
Vale $61.82
China Shenhua $63.64
Freeport $54.06
AA $53.12
Southern Copper $42.9
Newmont $42.71
Zijin Mining $40.6

etc etc

Add in the massive STRATEGIC importance of copper to China and the fact that they would have strong government support and the sky is the limit...

After all...name me another company with such riches as Solgold that is a copper/GOLD play and currently capitalised at £534 million

The AGM is going to be very interesting and I don't anticipate any bidder moving before then and probably the PFS as well (because that gives them the ammunition to persuade their Board of Directors)...

But the bottom line is that for one of these majors, the STRATEGIC need for massive new copper and/or gold resources in order to retain their earnings growth is, to my mind, far more important than the price they ultimately have to pay...

Alpala is close to

"plus an imminent Alpala which..."

"plus an imminent Alpala PFS which..."

Oops again..."That can now be increased to up to 70%." should of course be 75%...sorry

OK so its immaterial whether anyone is manipulating the SP or not...and pleeeaaaseee lay of Blackrock...it doesn't make any sense...the shares are held in 40 individual separate funds; who would they be doing it for (their holding in BHP is minuscule in percentage terms)? How would they split the proceeds; and why would the biggest fund manager in the world risk the fallout if it ever came to light...

However, there is nothing to prevent a smaller fund or similar (such as Berry Street) selling relatively small amounts when the price is weak and/or the volume is low, in order to keep the price down... they could easily buy those stocks back at a lower price, based on recent SP movements...

BUT...I believe there is now underlying resilience in the share price...

Whether its based on FOMO, or an expectation of a flow of good news now the new CEO is in place, or bid speculation...

I think people are more reluctant to sell and are snapping up bargains when the price is low (i.e. anything under 25p?)

I said on Tuesday that there was a bullish candlestick and lo and behold the SP 'gapped up' on Wednesday...

There was profit taking yesterday with the Tandy news and although we hit 22.05, the SP has steadily rebounded since, to an intraday high of 23.5p...it will be interesting to see if we break resistance at 23.73 today...

We've seen some chunky deals in the last few deals and if we can somehow close and UT at or close to the high of the day today (say 23.5/24 or better), I will sleep easier over the weekend...

There is undoubtedly something brewing here...as I've said, I believe some of the majors are playing a gigantic game of Mexican standoff, waiting to see who blinks first and who bids first, because there is no way a low ball bid will work for what was 14 months ago "the biggest takeover story in the City..." and when EVERYONE knows there is tasty news to come on at least four of the other projects, plus an imminent Alpala which, based on Tandy, is going to look much more economically viable than it di in late 2020...

AIMO as usual of course...

Huge apologies addickt...I thought I had...

I was thinking of GGP/NCM and Diamond Fields/Inco...

Newcrest entered into an 'earn in' on Havieron where they were entitled to acquire up to 70% of Havieron by agreed drilling commitments. That can now be increased to up to 70%.

I don't think SOLG would have to give up that much, but could condition it on BHP leading the financing of Alpala.

"In May 1995, after much posturing between Inco and Diamond Fields executives, Inco bought a 25% stake of Voisey’s Bay for US$386.7 million in preferred shares and cash, as well as 8% of Diamond Fields from company co-founder Jean-Raymond Boulle and early investor Robertson Stephens." i.e. 33%

At the time, Voiseys Bay was the biggest new nickel prospect in the world.

But of course here I'm talking about a direct stake in Alpala, NOT in Solgold. But with their shareholding, BHP would effectively 'own' 46.5% of Alpala, i.e. 35% plus 13.5% of 85%...

The Inco deal included global rights to sell all the nickel, so why not also give BHP global rights to sell all the copper and gold from Alpala (assuming CGP would agree and I can't see why CGP would resist the whole deal, because it would create an immediate spike in the SOLG share price).

In conclusion, it gives BHP the interest in Alpala they were desperate for when they bid for SOLG and settled for shares at 45p;

I also gives (as was the case with Inco/Diamond Fields) a short term ability to at least interfere with any bid for Solgold, while giving them an advantage if anyone else bid (but only until the Porvenir/Rio etc. stories take off)

It gets BHP off the Board's 'backs'...

And the footnote...?

Ingo's first foray into Diamond Fields was at an effective price of c$18 a share; only 7 months later, Inco and Falconbridge embarked on a bidding war, starting with Inco offering $31/share; then Falconbridge $36/share.

It culminated nearly a year after Ingo's original proposal with Inco bidding $43.50/share.

When Diamond Fields hit hole number 2 in December 1994, the share price exploded from $4.65 to $13.50. It then fell back to $11.00 a share in January 1995. 14 months later it was taken out for almost four times that price...

If the same thing happened here, we could ultimately see Solgold taken out at c£1 a share, BUT...Diamond Fields' only viable asset was Voisey's Bay...here we have 13 other major prospects including at least two that could be bigger than Alpala, so...

I could see either other majors bidding for some or all of the other projects and ultimately one winner taking Solgold out for £1/2 a share...

So in conclusion: a JV with BHP for Alpala secures the funding for development and gets BHP off our backs, but...

It could light the blue touch paper on a bidding war more than comparable to Diamond Fields, which eventually was taken out for $4.3 billion...

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-story-of-voiseys-bay-the-auction-part-2-of-3/

zoros....are you seriously saying you would sell out at 35p....

I know a profit is a profit but....

Hi mwv...

I've said for some time (including to my contact) that there is a simple middle road...

JV Alpala with BHP; use BHP to lead the residual financing; use the funds released to monetise the remaining assets.

I still believe the latter is why Solgold is structured as a holding company with Solgold Finance AG and 4 subsidiaries:

Green Rock
Valle Rico
Carnegie Ridge
Cruz del Sol

Post of the day and its only 10.00...cheers mwv

At the time I said NEXT resistance was 24.45 but of course its changed now...