Member Info for mattlilly

Well said smickster!

So does that mean nobody's worried and everybody accepts the scenarios I painted...?

SOLG going for 60/80p...?

And supposing a rearguard was mounted by the non BHP/NCM shareholders, would we all support that...?

Hypothetically:

Blackrock 4.86
Norges 3.07
Valuestone 0.50
NM 3.96
DGR 8.90
CGP 6.85
Tenstar 4.70
Berry Capital say 1%
Us say 2%
Total 35.84%

Other IIs? 10/20%

?

Sorry fat thumbs...

We need to determine our collective position on the following:

What would be our reaction to a bid for Cascabel alone and at what price would that be undervalued (NPV was $4.2/4.5bn but probably higher in Q2)?

Should such an offer be put to shareholders and if the Board tried to make it a done deal, how could we challenge that, given that it would not be a bud for the company, risking us having no say.

The latter is particularly concerning because the current share price massively undervalues Cascabel alone, let alone the other jewels we have.

Indeed that means there is effectively no value, indeed a negative value placed on Porvenir, Rio, etc.

And that is the nub of my concern especially for a bid for Cascabel alone...even more so if the Board agreed it, because as soon as it was formally agreed, it massively reduces the possibility of a third party bidding a proper price or at all for the rump of SOLG, leaving the way clear for BHP to gobble us up lock stock and barrel for maybe as little as 60/80p depending on the initial agreed bid for Cascabel.

My own view remains that if we have a clean contest for SOLGthe exit price would be at least 125/200p so...

We all need to put our thinking caps on about the scenarios and what our collective position would be...

Just checking in again...

DBW raises some important questions...

But hes only asking about value of Cascabel.

Nothing wrong in that, because what worries me is that BHP or BHP/NCM might be trying to use Cascabel as a 'Trojan Horse'...

I.e. they make an approach for Cascabel...the Board accepts and then BHP wheels in a low ball bid for the company once Cascabel is secured.

So there are more questions...

DBS are

What do you consider fair value for Cascabel and
If push came to shove what would you accept.

My view on the first is at least 50% of NPV (because copper prices will be much higher at production) so that puts it in the range of at least 80/90p...

But any combined bid for Cascabel would not be in terms of the SOLG share price, nor would it be in BHP or NCM shares.

What concerns me is the possibility that a JV proposal for Cascabel (say BHP/NCM owning 51% would price Cascabel even lower...so...

We need to determine our coll

So far almost 600,000 traded at 30p or more...

Yum yum

Some big trades going through over 30p...how long can the MMs hold it...

I still wonder if someone knows something, triggering the Minin g Journal article...

"What makes a diverse book?
Books that contain characters of color as well as main characters that represent a minority point of view. Books that are written by an author of diversity or color from their perspective"

https://shop.scholastic.co.uk/diverse-and-inclusive-reads

BHP had an agreed bid for Noront and then Wyloo massively gazumped them...BHP tail between legs...which means they have to get this right if they're serious...

That didn't work for BHP in their attempt to buy Noront addickt...

Agreed DBW

Of course it would...I'm not stupid...

But supposing someone had an interest in this being in the public domain...

I wonder if somebody has fed this story to Mining Journal to try and force a bidder's hand...?

Thanks monte did just that earlier...but only some...

zzzzzzzzz........

He has of course at least twice directly stated "Porvenir is the next cab off the rank" where he didn't need to...

https://www.mining-journal.com/digital_assets/2013a64f-c1fb-41e0-8ddd-a4570ff10cc0/MJI_GFR_2022_News_Release_Marketing_PDF_03-03-22_v05.pdf?utm_campaign=MJ%20-%20US%20-%20GFR%202022&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=199934035&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9YUFRXvlgqUlbSGVswhb0Oiy8a89g9jiXsxMlZ4XKxaayHkJsPma-ayudWQds9281YkCyznVd_-GfbUWDmrRsQ-O16Gnat4SWMivMPSbG7ohBloIk&utm_content=199934035&utm_source=hs_automation

Extracts:

The mining industry has weathered the turbulence of the past 12 months remarkably well and is set to enjoy a buoyant year ahead, according to market and sentiment data within the Mining Journal Intelligence (MJI) Global Finance Report 2022.

Investor appetite was particularly strong around anything to do with battery metals, renewables, and electrification. Most notably lithium, rare earths and copper were popular.

“Larger companies are awash with capital right now, so we are seeing transactions with smaller companies and small projects; deal value has not really exceeded more than US$400-500 million.”

Can sell 20,000 but only buy 5,000...looking good...

Can dummy sell 20,000 at the price...must be good news...

Been sitting on the POG, POLY and EVR boards this am...not as much mudslinging as here...

In all three for a modest punt...

Off to golf shortly...

GLA