Member Info for mattlilly

Then I found on the DGR Global Linked In page a post from 4 months ago, a RFC Ambrian "Copper M&A Update Report " including the following...

Cascabel has the highest NPV and the highest IRR of all the projects listed in Fig 13 on page 20

Table 4 on page 22 it is the highest ranked in terms of takeover probability

6.1 "High Takeover Probability Projects" states:

"The upcoming PFS will be carefully watched and a competitive bid for Solgold could occur if the Cascabel project achieves expectations. We believe there is a High possibility of a third party (including the minority shareholders) looking to acquire the project outright or taking a significant interest in the medium term."

Now I wonder why Nick would post that...?

firmly bid....

Don't be disheartened by the apparent weakness...MMs STILL want your shares...

I'm still firmly for 250,000 shares at 33.36, so the underlying demand is still there...

But anyhow, I think we can conclude that Hole 24 is the one my man was referring to...hence the excitement of Jason Ward and David D'Astoli...

You're right...managed to miss it twice!

Thanks

So then I looked at the detailed RNS published on 19 October 2021. The RNS listed on the LSE website is only an abbreviated version...here is the full version:

http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/4393P_1-2021-10-18.pdf

And it gets even more curious because it includes the following words:

"The maiden MRE is based on assays from the first 18 holes. Drilling has continued at the TAM deposit during the estimation process and visual mineralisation from Holes 19-30 suggest potential for future resource growth in the southeast quarter of the open pit optimised shape and particularly in the east and southeast depth extensions of the underground optimised shape where the highest grade mineralisation encountered thus far remains open”.

AND

"On the 26 August 2021, a data cut-off was applied to the TAM dataset for the purposes of Mineral Resource Estimation. "

AND

"Assay results from Holes 19-25, and 27 are pending"

AND

"The full size and tenor of the TAM system has not yet been tested. Mineralisation remains open to the south and east and at depth."

AND

"The TAM maiden MRE dataset comprised 17,535m of diamond drilling from holes 1-23, 458m of surface rock-saw channel sampling from 72 outcrops, and 14,566m of final assay results from holes 1-18"

Now when you look at the 2 December 2021 RNS in full:

https://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/2706U_1-2021-12-1.pdf

It includes:

"Highlights of assays received from holes 19-24 include:
• Hole 24: 568m @ 0.50% CuEq[4] including 220m @ 0.71% CuEq and 64m @ 1.01% CuEq"

and

"The full size and tenor of the TAM system has not yet been tested."

But the table in clouds the detailed results of Hole 24

"TAD-20-024
234 802 568 0.27 0.36 0.50 0.10 284.0
296 802 506 0.29 0.39 0.54 0.20 273.2
300 520 220 0.32 0.61 0.71 0.30 156.2
626 800 174 0.31 0.16 0.41 0.30 71.3
300 518 218 0.32 0.62 0.71 0.50 154.8
324 388 64 0.47 0.86 1.01 0.60 64.6"

"

Sorry...includes the words:

"Hole 24 has encountered intense mineralisation within an early quartz-diorite intrusion from 507m depth. This zone is interpreted as an extension of the strong mineralisation encountered in Hole 13 and includes up to 85% B-type quartz-chalcopyrite veining with approximately 2% visible chalcopyrite and trace visible gold mineralisation."

Hi Jerry...I don't think I need to...

If you look at about 7 months on these posts, you'll see a guy who I presume is David D'Astoli, holding a core under the caption "Deja Vu".

https://www.linkedin.com/in/jason-ward-6132a356/recent-activity/

The replies below confirm that it is Hole 24 at Tandayama and I believe it is comparing it to the great hole in Alpala...

Then if you look at the RNS on the Solgold LinkedIn posts at about 7 months, there is detailed one about Tandayama America entitled: "RNS OUT: Drilling encounters high grade zone at Tandayama-Ameríca, Cascabel"

https://www.linkedin.com/company/solgold-plc/posts/?feedView=all

This includes a specific mention of Hole 24.

Now here's the interesting thing...this is an 11 page RNS, dated 10 September 2021, but when you look at the RNSs on here, there IS NO 10 September RNS...!

So I looked at the TMX announcements and came across this one, which is the missing RNS...and includes the words "

https://money.tmx.com/en/quote/SOLG/news/8329312402986376/SolGold_PLC_Announces_Cascabel_Exploration_Update_TandayamaAmerxEDca

So maybe "...Included in Tandayama will be 'one of the best holes ever drilled in South America'..." refers to Hole 24...?

But why was the 10 September 2021 RNS removed, or was it only ever posted in Canada...

Curiouser and curiouser...

Not for long...? Price rattling up...

I dont disagree mate. I was responding to the suggestion that it would be a three way consortium...BHP/NCM//CGP...

That's not going to happen IMHO...

But it makes sense for a bidder to squeeze CGP out...however their 6% could be pivotal...

It was in auction ...126.66 bid 95 offered...illusion

Dont know where fearing came from...flawed...sb

So thanks guys. I've checked both the post and my notes and you are correct. They did say "will be one of the best holes".

I should be more careful in future and I apologise once again.

So maybe we can assume that hole hasn't been drilled yet or the results are awaiting independent confirmation.

In conclusion I dont mind being alerted to fearing or misremembered information, but my contact is still rock solid (excuse the pun...)

Wow that's some research and I apologise if my memory is flawed...

Cheers

The article said:

"The smart money is on a joint bid for London-listed SolGold by BHP and Newcrest Mining, as early as June." and

"It's rumoured Henry and Newcrest boss Sandeep Biswas have recently held talks to cut a takeover deal. The two companies are expected to bid following the release in May of the long-delayed Alpala preliminary feasibility study."

No mention of CGP...and under takeover law I believe they would have to offer at least as much to other shareholders as they pay CGP.

In July 2020, when SOLG offered $4.33 per share for CGP (approx £2.40) CGP said "SolGold would need to increase its implied bid by approximately five times its current amount for Cornerstone to match the average from precedent transactions.")

So what aggressive price would CGP want for their shares PLUS their 15% stake in Cascabel...?

CGP's combined interest in Cascabel is 21.4%.

The minimum value of Cascabel at $0,07/lb gives c$1.5bn x .214 x 0.76 = £244 million.

That means the total value of Cascabel would be £244m/.15 = £1.63Bn or c75p/share, but this includes no value for CGP's stake in the other prospects.nor a premium for selling their shares.

So why on earth would CGP accept even 100p per share?

There is no way BHP/NCM would want to enter into a joint venture with CGP, so surely a minimum successful bid for CGP's shares in SOLG would be c125/150p....

And then I believe unless there is a knockout bid, even a BHP/NCM combination would attract at least one counterbid....

In the Voices Bay case, Inco acquired a 25% stake for $386m, but a bidding war developed and they ended up having to pay $4 billion for the entirety...

If that happened here, the exit price could be £2/2.70 a share.

And comparing Noront, where BHP's first offer was 40c/share and Wyloo's successful bid was $1.10/share, the exit price for SOLG also gives £2/2.70/share.

All opinions welcome on the above calculations.

"Is this not the time when they would be less likely to face a competitor vs post PFS? "

IMO they'll face competition whether they bid pre or post PFS

Read again the Mining Journal below...the majors are coming for the Juniors and we are holding the second biggest Tier 1 in the world...

My contact is very happy I'm posting on LSE

So I should never have posted anything that Elodie or Fawzi said in an email then...?

May I repeat:

My contact has never given me ANY inside information.

So here's a proposal...DBW seems to be the most honest and constructive poster on here, so if he is willing to contact me by private mail on ADVFN, I will copy him the entire email, including who it is from.

He will not reveal the source of course, but he can attest the veracity in here, under a post headed red knight contact.

How's that?

I actually have no idea BNC, because he wasn't specific, but I guess we all assumed it was RIO...

After its all over I'll post you the exact email.

In the meantime, lets be clear, you're calling me a liar.

Where do you get off? I suppose you;'re the expert on this Board.

Filtered.