Member Info for mattlilly

Welcome back Colonel...

Conspiracy theory...would be buyer pays indigenous miners to shake things up....

Dont worry about the markdown...

Copper is being savaged...

Morning from Chardonnay...38 expected today (degrees not SOLG SP...)

However...after Friday could be an exciting day today...

Steady bargains at 33+ and then wham! 12 million at 35...

Shorter closing or someone who knows...?

We shall see soon, although no " we have received an approach that may lead to a bid...."

Yet...

GLA

Sound rational thinking mate.

Technically all the US markets are in a bear market now...(Dow, S&P, Russell, Nasdaq)

Nasdaq is down more than 30% from the high..

Bitcoin down c70%...

Gold and silver holding up...copper bouncing along the floor...?

Theres a commodity boom underway and metals are next...

What we need is either a real prospect of Ukraine rrsolution, or real signs of US inflation peaking and then watch the markets spike, but...

There are fundamental structural problems I the US economy, which is why I'm heavily into SOLG and GPM...

But we need a bid for SOLG soon...

AIMO as usual...

In fact theres now not a single date for Cascabel other than in the chart...its all'year1,2,etc'...

It's a fair point lunch. So do you think they're being deceitful by ending the GANTT chart in Q4 2025...?

CGP just touched a 2 year low of $3.40CDN...

SOLGs bid was well above that...especially now...

I'm taking it from the GANTT chart lunch. Construction finishes Q4 2025...

Hi from Chardonnay...

I'm just having another detailed look at latest presentation. Hers a few observations...

Ayten is not on the Board.

Annual gross value of gold production alone at assumed prices is c$1.4bn...

Several people have referred to a disappointing NPV, but that is based on a mine life of 26 years and 21% of the ore...

But...$11bn (80%) of the free cashflow comes in the first 13 years...

Cascabel ore contains an average 32% iron ore, significant molybdenum, some zinc and also some REMs...no lithium, cobalt, nickel, etc.

DFS now projected for Q4 2023; Project Finance completed by Q2 2024; first commercial production Q1 2026...

Cash at 31 March $38.1m...

"Now Ecuador has rewritten its mining code and attracted more than a dozen mining majors to set up offices there, while smaller explorers are searching for copper and gold. London-listed copper and gold developer, SolGold’s recent Ecuadorian discovery, Alpala, which is due to begin production in 2025 could become the world’s largest underground silver mine, third-largest in gold and sixth-largest in copper."

https://latam-investor.com/2021/01/coronavirus-boosts-latin-american-mining/

“The $10.62billion merger between Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. and Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd. led the way among a wave of monster gold deals in 2021”, says Kip Keen from S&P Global Intelligence. “The market was also rocked by Newcrest Mining Ltd.’s $2.78billion takeover of Pretium Resources Inc. and Kinross Gold Corp.’s $1.44billion acquisition of Great Bear Resources Ltd.” The buying frenzy will continue in 2022, says Keen, because the same forces will be driving M&A activity. “Depleting gold reserves, market pressure to bulk up company valuations and gold asset scarcity will send larger miners out looking to swallow smaller players that are sitting on active mines and higher-quality projects in 2022 gold mining M&A.”

"Gold mining is a fragmented industry, with more small miners than other metals. But now the ESG drive for environmentally-friendly mining could push consolidation."

"Gold mining is a fragmented industry, with more small miners than other metals. But now the ESG drive for environmentally-friendly mining could push consolidation."

https://latam-investor.com/2022/02/2022-a-big-year-for-latin-american-gold/

Had a £5k punt...rude not to...underlying figures seem pretty solid...

Sorry £20...fat thumbs...

Those are fair points UBLU, but Middle Eastern Oil nations are making a bomb now and I would have thought this would be an obvious takeover for diversification...

Surely bidding would start at c£2 for a Sovereign Fund with deep pockets to ride out 2022 after which inflation is expected to abate...?

CGP wasn't far off a 2 year low last night at $3.60CDN...down more than 30% in the last 6 months...

There is no volume in the shares...the 50 day average is 7,708 shares a day, i.e. c$40,000CDN per day against a MCap of $135m CDN...(and we think we have low volumes!)

Its EBITDA was MINUS $6.8 million and the 5 year average is MINUS $7.4 million, primarily because its Operations Revenue last year was $190,000...

So it seems that it is only their stake in SOLG/Cascabel that is keeping them alive...

They have $7.6m in cash with Operations negative cashflow last year of $6.64M and almost solely remain solvent because of cash raised from the exercise of options last year ($5.678m).

While their investment in Solgold has gone up by $5m since May 31 (and indeed by $14m since May 10), their MCap has fallen by $15m (10%) and indeed by $51.7m (almost 30%) in just 2 months since April 11...

Now OK...the US/Canadian markets have fallen during the same period, but SOLG is still pretty much at the same price, so...

My conclusion is that SOLG is the only prop for the CGP share price at the moment and they need to raise more cash soon (they have eschewed selling SOLG shares - the easy option - to raise cash, for more than 2 years)

So they would appear to be 'between a rock and a hard place' and...if they appear relaxed, they either know something we don't know or they're staring down the barrel of a gun, potentially making them a forced seller to a prospective bidder...

AIMO as usual...

Bozi...

"ask yourself why they'd put in long term remuneration policies if they planned to sell the company in a matter of weeks?"

Im sure there are no plans to sell the company, but Darryl and Ayten have come on board while Cascabel takeover predictions are widespread, with the 'most informed' comment saying My/June...

If I was coming into the company I would need a robust remuneration ;package to persuade me to take the risk that I might be out of a job next month...

They did say they will break even on EBITDA this quarter...only a few days ago...

By 'WE' I meant most of us on here...not me and the missus...

Sorry for the confusion...

Aren't we lucky so much of our portfolio is in here rather than the rest of the 'car crash' market...

"Precious metals are buoyant in this market but it won't last.
"

We'll see in due course...