RE: Ex post facto rationalisation...5 Aug 2022 12:01
A well reasoned post rcgl...
If one of the two 'walked away' I think they would sell their entire stake to another major rather than work them out through the market...
Both BHP and Newcrest paid significantly above the present price. If you think what a $50m cash raise would do to the SP, what would a c$100m stake being 'worked' in the market would do...which means it would be steadily reducing the ultimate proceeds.
When Newcrest withdrew Craig Jones, they carried out a strategic review of what to do with their stake and decided to keep it as a strategic investment. That means they expect to more than recoup the cost over time...or by a straight sale.
The most obvious buyer would be BHP, which with buying in the market could take them to 30% PDQ, but...
If another major bought it, it would give them a strategic foothold and starting point before a bid.
I'm certain the Chinese would pay well for Newcrest's stake, whether or not the Ecuador government wants a threatened stranglehold on mining as well as oil...
So I'm not worried about a stake sale by either. The most likely is Newcrest. If it went to BHP I would expect a final exit price on takeover to be lower than if it went to a major such as Barrick...look what happened at Noront...