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A two minute explainer on Archean Greenstone Belts for anybody short on time but keen to learn a little something today.
Listen a few times.
https://twitter.com/firstclassmetal/status/1554783448199479296?s=21&t=Fc9YCbuFjRXg9xlCL5xkWA
It is quite important to understand. Yes, there's likely to be plenty more surface, open pit mining to be had. But beyond that, given what lies at surface, there's a very decent chance that underground mining can also be had and that higher grades WILL be down there to support it. That really would be the norm. It is just the way these deposits are.
I know Bill has stated that Archean Greenstone Belts go down for kilometers already, but here it is from a different source for anybody who does not trust what Bill says. Obviously the share price is currently behaving like Bill is a pathological liar, so it's well worth hearing it from other geologists too.
If there are millions more ounces to be had from open pit operations in the first few hundred meters AND a lot more higher grade ounces as you go deeper underground...
How big is this thing?!
Big.
Really, really big.
In Canada?
Absolutely irresistible to the big boys given the current state of the world.
Landore will never prove up more than a small percentage of what people who know what they're talking about have good reason to believe is there.
Enough time has passed.
Enough has been banked with the drill bit to achieve a value that will be acceptable to shareholders.
Somebody will be keen to get this off of our hands.
I did note that Mark Bristow of Barrick said in an interview at some point in the last couple of years that "the best properties to buy are the ones where the company you're buying from don't even know how good it is themselves yet".
I'm not saying that Barrick are the one.
I'm just saying that ludicrous upside potential will be the underlying theme of the strategic review.
It's what the big companies want. The way for them to add real value is to prove up more ounces themselves and not pay retail for them.
As ever, go and check it all for yourself. I may be an idiot.
1/4 -posted in the correct order so it reads nicely. :-)
"Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble"
Sound advice from Warren Buffett is that. I have had my bucket out here an awful lot lately.
Bottom line: if you've got the wobbles, if you've been panic selling or if you're desperately hoping to see what you paid returned to you (27p?!) then you simply do not understand the geology here and you need to do some proper study immediately.
How did we get to such a low valuation?
The marketing here isn't great. The website looks a bit old school. Bill can explain things properly, but the gap between his understanding and the average investor's understanding is so vast that it's difficult for him to understand how this is so badly understood. People don't even know the basics. He can explain himself, but hasn't taken the time to do so at enough length. That is on the company and if they'd done a better job, this would be more properly understood and more sensibly valued.
The blind are leading the blind here. The level of understanding simply isn't high enough among enough fundamental investors for the signals to be strong enough to get the right message into the technicals. A sizeable percentage of people are hoping to copy other people's homework by reading charts and 'following price' but that can't work if hardly anybody understands what's on offer. They don't.
https://twitter.com/Borg74/status/1566435692380672005
At the end of the day, a chart isn't worth anything. A gold deposit is and that's what's on offer. You only have to read some of the idiotic comments here to realise how painfully ignorant many existing investors are, even after years of service in some cases.
No doubt I'll annoy a few people on here as I usually do. I promise that in normal life I don't often do that, but then I never, ever get accused of sloppiness or delusional thinking by people who actually know me. If anything, I usually annoy people by being so obsessive and thorough. Once again, the internet appears to be a parallel universe.
Anyway, there are a very large number of reasons that the odds of this company being being left at the altar after the strategic review are very small. If you were privy to a reasonable number of them, you would be thrilled to be offered shares at this price and would not be worried about getting in a few quarters too early at what is still an absolutely bargain price. You'd be filling your bucket and grateful for the continued loopy sale as I have been.
I'm not going to give it to you people on a plate though, because all you will learn that way is that laziness gets rewarded. It doesn't. Instead I will start pointing you in the right direction by suggesting sources to read, people to talk to and questions to ask. You've actually got to use your brain yourself, not just look around and hope that somebody who is bright has already done that and will hand you all t
If lots of smart folks were clued up and paying attention, we would not have this valuation. They aren't.
Task number one, pick up the phone and talk to Bill.
I think you'll find that he'll be largely pleased to hear from you, although make no mistake he is very busy at the moment. I know the communication method is a bit old school and you're probably annoyed that you have to ask questions rather than be told in the marketing materials, but that's how it is and is where the opportunity lies. If you have money tied up here or plan to put a bucket out rather than a thimble then this is an essential piece of work. Do not gamble on a hunch. Know what you're getting for your money.
Be polite. Don't go prodding for stuff that you know Bill can't tell you about. It is beyond rude and is deathly annoying. He's not going to let out details of which companies are interested in what and how far along they are because he doesn't want to spend seven years in prison.
There are a few things I'd suggesting asking him about.
Firstly (I have said this on here before) Bill's public confidence regarding this deposit being 3-5moz at surface would see him get into an awful lot of legal bother if it was pure BS and not based on a solid geological rational.
Yes, I know there are a lot of slimy, chancing CEOs on AIM who are pedalling pure rubbish and that a lot of folks get burnt by them talking nonsense. They have nothing but sentiment to sell you. Many do belong in the slammer with the banksters if you ask me.
So go and test Bill out to see if he is one of them. Ask him "What leads you to be so confident that this is a 3-5moz deposit at surface?".
I don't think you will be disappointed by his explanation. It was 100% satisfactory for me to park a large sum here with a high degree of confidence. I know a few other very smart folks who have done the same. Now I have a feel for Bill I get the impression that he has a low tolerance for lazy people and I do sometimes wonder if he's deliberately leaving the door open here so that those of us who can be bothered to understand the company get the lions share of what's coming.
Assuming you are as satisfied with Bill's explanation of HOW they know the gold is there as I was, you simply have to ask yourself "will bigger companies find this absolutely irresistible given what they'd be expected to pay for it at this stage and what they reasonably expect the upside is here?".
The answer is obvious.
They'll pay well for what's 100% proven with the drill bit because what's also there with a high degree of confidence if you know your geology is worth 3-5x that. Assuming we get congruent results at Felix and the enormous soil sampling that's ongoing continues to corroborate the story, suitors are going to be completely sold. 2/4 TBC....
Once you get to that point, you'll understand why Landore are taking this very controlled strategic review process. They're not scratching around in desperation for any interest at all as de-rampers suggest. They have a 'variety' of it (Glen's words). The careful process is about getting the best out of it after six years of continual success and considering all options carefully. They can only cash in on all these years ONCE so they are right to take their time.
They do not need to ramp or worry about selling the company to clueless retail punters anymore, because their real customers understand and want this. It's worth 5x the current market cap all day long. Yet we sit here, potentially just a few weeks from receiving offers of that nature and suspicious, untrusting or poorly researched folks have been SELLING rather than buying. Some even compare the company to valueless pharma stocks or covid nonsense. It is mad.
Honestly. Go and pick up the phone. Today.
While you're at it, it might be worth talking to Glen about 'plan B' funding options if that worries you (or Bill while you've got him). My 'back of envelope' calculation (as it was so kindly described) was also backed up with a strong previous suggestion to management that if they do need more funding (that doesn't come from warrants, options or secondary property sales) that they should be looking towards bridging loans or ideally a rights offering to raise it, rather than private placements. I would be keen to hear if they sound open to those suggestions still, not that I think they're happening.
My personal opinion is that the last raise by private placement in Feb 21 wasn't too bad at the time (30p and with no warrants). Further insulting and undemocratic dilution down here in the unlikely event that much more expensive work (tens of thousands of meters more drilling) is needed to get to the finish line does appear to need ruling out to fully satisfy some people though. The cloud of negative sentiment here just won't clear and the idea that there are first class and second class shareholders is part of that.
All good for starters? Get cracking. Those who put the effort in will get the rewards.
One final bit of homework for you, given that some of the clueless and ignorant folks here repeatedly make dumb comments about the grade not being good enough. There are already two producing open pit gold mines in Ontario. Both are in the Abitibi Greenstone Belt, both are around 1g/ton. Lots of nice similarities- Ontario, Greenstone Belt, 1g/ton.
The first is Agnico Eagle's Detour Lake. It is enormous, probably the largest gold mine in Canada. I am not suggesting we are at that scale before the pedants nit pick. But perhaps one of the keyboard warrior 'experts' who doubt the viability of Junior Lake because of it's grade could do Agnico a favour? Call them up and tell them that the big hole they've spent billions of dollars making is no good because it's a 1g/ton open pit. 3
Brownie points for anybody who knows or wants to go and find the other 1g/ton open pit gold mine that is already active in Ontario. Go on, flex your research skills and grow the kind of confidence that sees you buying while the clueless de-ramp or panic sell up here based on what other clueless people are doing. It's a little test for you.
I will endeavour to drop other pointers in here over the next few weeks with the expectation that the mad panic has now largely passed and that the share price will begin to recover enough to make this the right time to do so. I do have a business of my own to run though and can not dedicate myself to full time essay writing here as an unpaid substitute teacher.
Be careful what you read and who you listen to. There are some pig ignorant and/or manipulative individuals on this board who may cost you a fortune by posting absolute rubbish.
It's time to park the victimhood and the excuses folks. You might 'only be a retail investor' but you can and should endeavour to know absolutely everything you can about this company, it's geology and the gold mining business in general. If you are not able to confidently place a valuation on it and you worry about, rather than take advantage of illogical share price fluctuations it is questionable whether you should be picking mining stocks by yourself as it is.
Usual caveat- 'do your own research'. Seriously. That is literally what I am encouraging you to do. The understanding here is still appalling and so is the share price.
4/4 Done....for now, but by no means actually done.
We've seen an unexpected bid for a multi-billion dollar mining company in the last few weeks. The company in question were not actively looking for offers.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/oz-minerals-rejects-bhps-58-bln-nickel-copper-play-undervalued-2022-08-07/
Playing chicken with a few weeks here? Given the very real risk that a bid comes in earlier than expected and you're locked out? That does not strike me as particularly 'smart'.
I'd say it looks more like the behaviour of people who have a gambling problem and are rolling the dice for excitement.
Before anybody says 'but there will be a leak and the chart will tell me about it' I'd suggest you go back and look at the Oz Minerals chart. It was actually trending downwards and only shot up AFTER the offer had come in. Much bigger companies were involved, which logically means that far more people were aware and working on the offer. The chart knew nothing.
Go ahead and leave it until what you believe is the last minute if you like.
You may be lucky and get away with it.
Or you may not.
We could have ourselves quite an interesting situation brewing here.
1) Lots of the well committed medium/large retail holders who buy based on fundamental value and are not irrational/put off by low prices have been hoovering up shares in the sub 20p mega sale. These folks will not let go of their shares until they get what they're worth (multiples of the current price).
2) Folks who left on or around the 20th July thinking they'd be clever and get back in during September are going to be under pressure to do so now the sp is moving up, as it could start going quickly.
3) Chartists/momentum traders are going to start noticing this and piling in.
It's always tricky calling the timing of things so I may end up looking like a wally, but it is a narrower doorway than it was a month ago and the pressure to get through it has started earlier than expected.
Got popcorn?
Sadly Sportbilly I think you're wasting your breath posting here.
We have multiple expert geologists who are bullish about the expansion potential and have spelled it out repeatedly already.
Chris Cooper has said that he's convinced Felix is a BAM repeat. He's been around the block and has his reputation to think about. It's his livelihood. Bam is still growing and assuming Felix is a repeat of it, this is unquestionably multi-million ounce.
Brian Fitzpatrick, the principal geologist at Cube has forty years in the business and holds specific expertise on gold deposits in archean greenstone belts. It's quite clear from Cube's comments in the NI 43-101 that they expect this to continue to grow. They have to be careful about what they say as the quality of their work and the faith that can be placed in it is their entire business. A few duff reports and their reputation is done.
Bill has publicly stated that he thinks there are 3-5moz to be had from surface mining alone. Say what you like about Bill, but he knows his geology. Yes, he has a clear vested interest, but would get himself into a lot of bother by making careless statements. Furthermore, he would have been laughed out of the room by other industry experts on May 26th and he certainly wasn't. If anything, Bill appeared to command massive respect from his peers. Their opinions of him were so diametrically opposed to folks on this bb that it makes you wonder if the internet is actually a parallel universe. 3-5moz is not a fact until it is proven with the drill bit, but the probability looks very, very good to the trained eye.
This company is undervalued for it's defined resource based on NPV/IRR of the proven gold alone. The experts think that it is significantly bigger and the company is frantically gathering evidence to further corroborate those expert's claims with its current sampling and exploration drilling efforts. It is becoming too good and too tempting for bigger companies to ignore.
That said, it still trades like dog dirt.
The crowd simply aren't interested in buying a slice of a company at a fraction of it's true value having done proper research about it's geology. I wait patiently for their arrival and will laugh when they all try to pour in at the last minute based on one pointless metric or another. They are not investing. They are simply playing a largely pointless poker game with one another.
Most folks can't even be bothered to download, read and understand the NI 43-101 from May. If the decades of geological experience among people who actually understand the value of the property are totally ignored, then you can also expect to be totally ignored sportbilly.
If the route to making exceptional money was doing the same as everybody else we'd all be rich and by definition that can not be the case.
I look forward to being ignored too.
Like I said the other week, Canadian battery metals are a shoo-in Bail1968.
There is no finer version of 'capitalism' to be involved in than crony capitalism.
Is the government throwing money that they've stolen from taxpayers or printed at a problem?
Thank you very much. I'll have some of that.
No time to post at length today sadly. I know I am due to.
It's just worth noting that bids can come in at any time, even when companies aren't actively seeking them. If unexpected bids can come in for multi-billion dollar companies, they can come in here.
Keyword, 'unsolicited'.
If there is a surprise early bid here and you were playing away or trading in an attempt to make a few quid/out of boredom over a few weeks (particularly if you've been waiting sixteen years) then try not to cry into your cereal at 7am if the red dot is there unexpectedly one day.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/oz-minerals-rejects-bhps-58-bln-nickel-copper-play-undervalued-2022-08-07/
If you bought shares for the correct reason Ronaldo, which is that you thought the company was worth more than today's £20 million market cap, you should surely think that it's even better value as the price declines and have a strong desire to buy more?
Unless you think it isn't worth the valuation you made anymore for some reason? What mistake did you make that led to you putting such an incorrect valuation on the company when you bought? I'm always keen to hear from people about investment mistakes that they have made and in particular what lesson they learned so I can avoid making the same ones!
Perhaps you could let me know what your rational was for buying shares in the first place? Was it placing a value on the company based on the value of its assets, its location and its stage of development? If that wasn't what you did, then how did you come to the conclusion that this was a buy?
I do seem to be getting a reputation on here for being unkind, but I have no desire troll strangers on the internet. I have simply asked genuine questions and I'd really like to hear back from you with some answers if you can spare the time please. Anybody is welcome to block me if anything I say or ask them about is triggering. I am not looking to upset you as 'throwing the towel in' is quite an emotive statement that suggests you're already struggling. I'm just trying to better understand how your decisions to buy and sell are being formed because they appear to be leading to radically different answers to the ones I am getting.
Many thanks
Matt
Funny analogy Catbert.
Perhaps we can leave behind the idea that if we don't arrive at Disneyland by October that it's been a 16 year journey leading to the dentist to have some teeth pulled out?
I appreciate that the driver can not make guarantees about what the destination is yet, but the black and white thinking that says 'if it isn't fantastic, it will be terrible' isn't just childlike, it's mental.
Gold once again bumping the 50 day moving average today. The fed appear to be backing off on the rate of rate increases already. Talking tough will only get them so far. I don't think that the short term price of gold will make one bit of difference to the price this goes for if we get a sale, but it may well improve the sentiment in the sector in general and give the company a boost in the autumn.
I tried to look back on the lse board to see if there was any truth in your statement Mads, but apparently it doesn't hang on to things from 2013. Nor should you.
Whether there was excitement about the appointment of Featheby (an accountant) at PGD or not, the appointment of Huw Salter (a lawyer) here came and went without so much as a murmur. I suppose Huw must have been appointed to make sure that Landore comply with laws about equality and diversity or something? What do you propose was the reason, if not for looming corporate transactions? Run the company into the ground as quickly as possible by adding to costs and further nuking the value of Humphries' 5.7 million + shares asap?
We have seen multiple similar gold projects sold in the last twelve months at multiples of the market cap here. I doubt any had such enormous upside potential and assuming results start coming back ok over the next few months the pressure to snap this up will be enormous. We are surrounded by all the right firms. Geological results are reliable. Do you think we will somehow get no offers at all when our market cap is absolutely tiny compared to fair value? Not even a cheeky stink bid, like double or triple the market cap?
Evidentially the nickel was good enough for you to be invested pre BAM and that's now back in play. Landore are not splitting exploration funds between gold targets and nickel for a laugh, surely? The only sensible explanation for that course of action is that they have interest in BOTH.
They did appoint somebody nametrade.
Non Executive Director Huw Salter.
15th October 2021.
A legal expert with lots of M&A experience. I wonder why they saw a need for somebody like that to come on board at this point rather than somebody new to refresh the operations side of things?
There have been so many clues that some sort of corporate transaction is on the horizon that I have lost count.
Another decent buy just gone through. 250k this time.
Judging from the size of the lumps it's bigger investors or institutions that are largely mopping it up here.
Obviously good for the company. It's just a shame that more small investors aren't aware of Landore or don't have the confidence to benefit from the sale.
I just thought it was worth putting a smug 'I told you so' post on here in order to annoy people and be as gittish as possible while I've got the chance.
If you check back, you'll see that I have been writing that I think the options are a good source of funding and that I would like to see holders start to exercise them to show that they're serious about getting this over the line soon and dampen (irrational in my opinion) fears about funding. We want all the money in the coughers and spent on geological work over the next few months as the share price climbs back up ideally. There is no benefit to us if they're exercised two seconds before a sale and the money has not added value to the project. There's very nearly two million quid to come in and the ball is now rolling. Well done Bill. Now get Glen and the others to check down the back of the sofa for another few quid! 'Lentamente' as you all get the liquidity in your personal finances sorted is just fine.
I'll try to get back to being nice as well as correct soon.
I have an awful lot of good information to share with you folks, but need the time and energy to contribute without being smug or a git. The difficulty is that my own business is somewhat seasonal and we are properly in the thick of it right now. Time spent arguing with randoms on the internet is not time well spent, particularly if they don't do the basic work required to understand this company themselves.
Congratulations again to any of you lucky folks who've been taking part in the sub 20p mega sale. Ain't gonna last much longer by the looks of it!
Do you know why there is paranoia here jh2704?
It's because people do not do their homework properly.
How many people do you think read the entire 392 page NI43-101 technical report and actually understood it? How many of the FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) posters who are here for the AIM poker game have even bothered to download it, let alone took the time to read and understand it all so they can be confident about what's on offer here? I suspect none is the answer, because I know how these people function. Gamblers lack the self discipline required to sit down and study until they understand 'boring' and lengthy geological documents. They gamble for excitement. They don't study.
This is why Bill has gone to make the case directly with other people who have the intelligence/patience/ability to appreciate what they are looking at here; majors and mid tiers. He is clearly wasting his breath with an awful lot of the lazy, gambling punters who linger around AIM shares like a bad smell, making the entire place feel like a sleazy casino rather than a place of rational value weighing.
samval2403, I took the time to watch the two videos that Samroy shared here last week about interpreting soil/till sampling and drill results. They are very basic, but decent if you're coming from a knowledge base of zero. The problem is that you have either misunderstood or deliberately misquoted them here in the comments you have made.
Firstly, the geologist in question nowhere states that the grades here 'aren't good enough'. You have mistaken a comment he made about individual drill holes at 1g/ton, with projects averaging 1g/ton. Have you have ever actually looked at Landore's individual drill results? Do me a favour. Chain yourself to a desk with a coffee for an hour and study them. It will hurt. You will want to do something fun instead. But don't.
Later in the video he even goes on to speak about open pit gold projects working at 0.5g/ton if the scale is there. He quite clearly states 1g is a fairly standard open pit grade. You would not generate an exceptional IRR and an NPV into the hundreds of millions from a small length of the Junior Lake strike if the grade wasn't good enough. Think it through. How can you have an 'insufficient grade' problem and a project that is so quickly profitable?
He made no comments relevant to management here either as far as I can see, which does make me think you lean towards malice rather than mistake. Maybe be specific about what you heard that applies here? It sounded to me like most of his comments actually corroborated that management here are just fine (history of success with fundraising, sharing full and detailed drill results etc).
It seems that many people who are looking STILL don't know what they're looking at. Based on the 519 views of the May 26th youtube video, hardly anybody is looking either.
This is a textbook, profitable, low risk, open pit gold mine in a top tier jurisdiction.