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Your average is 10% less than Bill paid at the last placing (Feb 2021) Ronaldo. About half what his average is over the lifetime of the company.
I'm going to say you're probably ok on this one.
The fact that we haven't heard about the longer term strategy yet (beyond the mini campaign this spring) and that directors haven't bought in again on the open market to average down suggests to me that they can't. They know something critical is in the pipeline.
High likelihood of fun times ahead.
Absolute worst, worst, worst case scenario is that warrants expire and it's another 18 months drilling up to the next level after a raise at a silly low price.
You're only under water 20%, it's nothing in the world of AIM stocks. If you don't think there's any risk of a 7am RNS over the next few weeks or months that puts a rocket under this then sell up and go make your losses back somewhere else. My money says you'll grumble but not sell.
Bill paid 30p in last year's placing Ronaldo and has an average of 50p or so from purchases over the years.
Therefore it should not be easy for him to say 'silence is golden' based on the current price action.
Unless he knows something that we don't.
Which is that he's been in serious talks about selling this for a sensible price and therefore doesn't have to worry much about money wise, despite being so deeply underwater.
No certainties in life obviously Nice, but if Bill had wanted to maximise his chances of a decent price because he needs to do another raise he'd have been ready to fanfare that MRE.... or more sensibly call a raise beforehand. He knows the Landore share price routine now. Deliver the goods and have your share price punished for it by the 'sell on RNS irrespective of what it says' crew.
The potential to get your fingers burnt here on the downside is very small. If you've got a little time to play with, it's essentially akin to zero again. But the potential to get your fingers burnt on the upside is enormous. Play about trying to make a few quid over the next few weeks or months and risk missing the big event. If I was Bill and I knew I had a deal in the bag I'd be ****ing myself with laughter at the moment, locking out traders and giving long termers with faith in Landore an opportunity to buy some more at steal prices. If I get a chance over the next few weeks, that's what I'll be doing.
Yes, the share price is ridiculous and a raise at this level would be crazy, but the warrants are at a dirt cheap price too. A sale is not a certainty in the near future, but nothing has changed apart from people's sentiment owing to Bill's inability or unwillingness to say anything at the moment. People really do need to take a chill pill or two. We could be based in Russia!
There are lots of options, but they range from good (more incredible value, highly successful drilling), to excellent (sale or JV of gold) through to mind-blowingly amazing (both nickel and gold sold or JV'd which nobody dares to dream about apparently). Nickel price on fire, only headed one way over the next few years and this is oven ready. Maybe 77,000 tons is enough to garner interest now when 100,000 tons was the benchmark before?
Even the absolute worst case scenario is a good one if you can take up knitting and wait. In the meantime it's a bit like holding extreme premium bonds. Very limited downside and you could wake up to a massive win any day.
The most obvious reason for Bill to put that interview back is that he can't say what he needs to say right now. Have a scotch, listen to some heavy metal or go for a run.
If he's avoiding interviews, missed the opportunity for excitement around the MRE and needs to do another raise then he's a bloody idiot. His cost of capital has just gone up after an MRE increase of 50% and he's the biggest bag holder of them all here with an average of over 50p.
Judging from the fact that he nailed the timing of the raise in February last year, I don't think he's that much of a wally.
That's pretty much what I was going to say Samval. They had a little bit of funding left, have seen a few warrants executed and have a little bit coming in from Lithoquest.
The plan was to do this little bit of additional drilling with the change from down the back of the sofa.
Not difficult to imagine that if they start sinking holes further out at Felix and they're ok that the geological model they're working on is confirmed and the Majors will be further pressured.
IF they have to drill on in a significant way, there are a ton of warrants expiring in the summer. Either;
1) The warrants get cashed.
or
2) The warrants expire and they do a raise.
Not both.
If you have done your homework properly, dilution to this level is already priced in and the route shouldn't matter much.
What does matter to a lot of people is the idea that they might have to wait another 12-18 months while another significant campaign occurs before the big payday. I have seen no new solid evidence that this is the case and am not particularly worried either way. The success in progress here is consistently delivering value in percentage terms (increase in resource size) that's beyond the percentage dilution. Holders are getting richer if they've got the emotional stability to ignore (and hopefully take advantage of) irrational short term price action caused by short term thinking or money chasers. The risk for those folks here is the 7am RNS. It could drop any day, week, or month and without warning. We are only a few weeks past MRE update and patterns on charts won't mean anything if it lands.
Personally I don't need constant reassurance from Bill about what the game plan is and whether it's totally different now to what it was a few months ago. I function on thinking (logic) not emotions (anxiety) but the lack of hand holding and soothing words here is clearly causing less stable folks some serious trauma.
Here's my wild, best case scenario possibility for why there's a delay.
They're in negotiations for both the gold and separately for the nickel.
Steady on I know. Be careful not to ramp. Let's face it though, Landore is desperately under-ramped by it's own management!
That nickel resource was only 75% of the size that the big boys wanted and the ridiculous nickel price crash left Landore with no other option but to bank it and wait for prices to recover. I haven't suffered any of those years as a shareholder, so without personal attachment I actually think they've done quite well. Yes, waiting for nickel prices to return was a loooooong term strategy. But they have done it right and seen it through, proving up an excellent gold resource in the interim.
Yes, this company has been going a long while. But for two separate resource achievements, the timescale isn't bad. The two NI 43-101 resources are why this company has taken an age to get anywhere. What they need now to make up for it, particularly for the likes of Mads, is a double payday.
We are now in a different world. The drive to get every gram of nickel out of the ground and the skyrocketing prices might make big mining companies consider a nickel resource of this size when it wasn't really big enough before. The demand we'll be seeing for nickel over the next few years is mental and going from zero to Ni 43-101 takes years irrespective of how badly people want it.
It might be that an oven ready, albeit slightly small project is desirable now when it wasn't before. Getting it off of Landore's hands early, before nickel prices get silly and it's proven bigger might be a good idea in somebody's mind.
No problem with the rounding Mads, I had forgotten exactly when the podcast was.
Quite funny we've both written almost the same thing at the same time. You beat me to it by three minutes, but I was writing an essay.
It'll either be great minds think alike, or fools rarely differ!
Don't forget that Bill told us six months ago that 'they are talking to people' Samval. We know there have been NDAs for a while.
I agree that a sale is not a five minute job. People becoming itchy does tickle me. But as far as I can tell the drilling campaign went almost exactly as expected. What they were told to prove for their suitors is what they've done. Tailor made, to order campaign. Accordingly I wouldn't be surprised if a sale came more quickly than most people imagine.
It has the feel that a rough deal was fleshed out some time ago and Landore have been on a box ticking exercise of a drilling campaign for the last 18 months. They've got drilling at Junior Lake down to such a fine art that it's becoming boring and routine. "Oh look, more gold". Yawn. Geological success has become so predictable and ordinary that they've forgotten to look excited about it!
I have no doubt that they could keep hammering away, growing this resource for years at an economical cost if they wanted to. I see no signs of that and I suspect it's because they know they don't need to.
Insider trading comes with a prison sentence of up to 7 years.
Not saying it never goes on, but you'd probably have a difficult bit of explaining to do with the FCA in this case.
"I just happened to buy millions of those at a ridiculous price only days/ weeks before a bid came in when I'd shown no interest for 15 years. Lucky old me!"
There's literally a warning from the FCA about 'market abuse' under the post message button here. The folks in the city might be dishonest, but they certainly aren't stupid.
Next week's podcast put back....read in to that what you will.
https://twitter.com/DavidBurton1971/status/1494606859600338965
Indeed Nice.
A two million ounce project is worth more than double what a one million ounce project is.
A four million ounce project is worth more than double what a two million ounce project is.
Bill knows his geology and has strong reasons to believe this is one of the rare larger projects. Can he convince a major that it is without another substancial campaign and get them to pay a premium on top of the proven ounces without another huge drilling campaign?
The temptation to carry on drilling must be enormous. I'm chilled if we do. It's not the quick route to cash in my pocket, but they don't waste money with the drill. Lobo Tiggre calls it 'success in progress'.
Could a JV still be on the table? Barrick spend $180 million a year on exploration....5% of that goes a bloody long way at Junior Lake and whether towards production or proving this is a multi million ouncer with the drill bit this could do with hitting the fast forward button before bill dies on the job!
There are loads of options. We're all left wondering what route this is heading...hopefully only for another week.
My pal and yours, Mr Eric Sprott raising some cash.
Will he be cashing his warrants here? If we need more funds either;
A) There will be a raise and warrants will expire or
B) Warrants will be cashed
Not both.
Which means a raise, if it is required, is an insignificant event in terms of 'dilution' assuming you're working to fully diluted numbers. The net effect will be about the same and you should already have it priced in.
https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/1082-tsx/fr/116043-eric-sprott-reports-holdings-in-first-majestic-silver-corp.html
Check out this video with Ian Telfer from two days ago. Telfer was chairman at Goldcorp who were acquired by Newmont in 2019.
The whole thing is worth a watch, but if you're busy key sections include;
M&A in gold mining
Trouble finding gold
Growing a gold mining company
Top mining jurisdictions
Transition to EVs
See if you think any of it fits Landore.....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SoAthTstBzc
Granted it feels a lot more like a private company here than a public one at times but that works for me as I'm convinced a sale is the end game and I think further fundraising is unlikely (although not impossible). They money is always spent well anyway and I measure my holding here in ounces in the ground rather than percentage of company. A bigger pie is fine by me, provided my bit of pie is always bigger than last time!
The crowd aren't interested. It's not sexy or flash. It's way understated. Therefore it's unloved (by the market) despite having tier one potential in a top tier jurisdiction and growing consistently for buttons per ounce.
That said I am a freak and people's twitchiness here turns me right on. I've got a semi when the share price goes down most of the time....yes, another sale! :-) I'm naturally greedy with others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy. Granted I may have been dropped on the head as a child or something and the wires are the wrong way round but that's me. You can forget worrying about momentum, sentiment, website design, chart squiggles or any of that stuff if corporate transaction is where you think this logically goes and you expect to wake up one day to news of just that. We can debate WHEN, but the IF question is really off the table for me. This IS going to be a proper mine and the value for people who can stomach it here is terrific.
Nice- it does say that pit optimisation work is being prepared for that NI43-101 in early Q2. I did jump straight from that to conflate the NI43-101 (full detailed report) with the updated PEA as I don't see how an accurate economic assessment can be made until the pit design is settled? Again, happy to be corrected and/or to ask the company so there is no confusion on dates, but that's how I interpreted it. If is the PEA next week that's fine by me.
Featherby has no more interest in marketing to shareholders than Bill has in making a new website for them.
'The board don't deem a new website to be a wise spend at this moment in time' was the latest comment on that one. If anything says 'this is very close to the end and we have no further need to raise capital at a good share price' it is that. The laziest of boards would insist on a proper marketing campaign to drive up the SP if further dilution (beyond warrants) was coming.
Read between the lines and look at what they're doing (drilling a resource for sale tailored to customer wants), not what they're saying they'll do and not delivering on (marketing to shareholders).
Make no mistake, the majors/mid tiers ARE the customer. You, humble retail investor, have to do your homework and have faith, or sooner or later you'll lose out. With that in mind, by not pumping here, Bill has given long term, patient holders an opportunity to top up at obscene prices here. Based on a recent survey in the Landore Telegram group, that's what quite a few of them have done over the last year. Spoils to those who've supported Landore for years without wetting the bed every RNS- it's only correct and proper when you think about it.
If there's a raise at a silly price like this AND the summer warrants are cashed before expiry I'll eat my hat.
Next week's podcast isn't timed to the PEA, which according to last week's RNS is due early Q3. Unless it's going to be half an hour of Bill dodging questions and golden silence, we are expecting SOME other news very shortly. The man is awkward as hell in the limelight and won't constantly be volunteering for interviews if he's got nothing new to say.