RE: chances of russia seizing poltava....25 May 2022 20:04
Hmmm.... I also believe that Poltava will be safe from Russian attack but I also would not be supprised if the Ukrainian army collaspes in the next few weeks! Ego, it will safe because the Ukrainian army will hold the Russians where they are or there will be no fighting if/when the Russian advance. It is the fog of war and we will just be guessing until that clears.
My worst case, is that the Russians do take control of Poltava and the west decides to treat the company like other Russian stocks! There would be a lot of IFs to get there and personal I don't think the Russian would advance that far, even if they could. I think the higher likelyhood is, if Ukraine disintegrates, is that Poltava would be part of some puppet state, whether that is control by Russian or Western powers, who knows.
Just speculating, so, I'm going to stop now. Worst case risk is probably not priced in but clearly is still cheap if there was a creasefire tomorrow. You pay your money, you take the risk.