Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Where is this 80% figure coming from?
There's going to be some volatility on a share like this that doubles in price inside 5 minutes. I would expect the price to drop a bit as people de-risk but wouldn't be too shocked to see a bit of a re-rate over the next couple of months
Next question - can it be appealed?
I won't pretend to know the full implications of this price wise, but am I right in saying that is a hell of a result?
It all depends on how much is already priced in, both in terms of how much and what it could add to our potential
For example as you say $150m with $100m to RKH would be equivalent to an extra 14p before talking about unlocking potential. But everyone knows there is a potential windfall coming, so maybe £30m of that is already priced in (so lets say 10p extra). If we get an award of $50m and only take home $25m, then that's probably going to knock the price a bit, and then the reverse of what you're saying may happen - as the lower award may knock confidence in the potential.
As always we will never know until it happens. Exciting and nervy times!
Aren't the lawyers working on a no-win-no-fee basis with a percentage of the award in the event of a win?
I can't remember the specifics, but it is some kind of sliding scale
47500 @ 36p avg
For a long while I was just hoping to get my money back, after so long it would feel like a win. Now I'm on the fence, this feels like it could be something...
definitely higher or lower... ;)
just kidding... but I think it's impossible to say at this point
Don't think of it as 1p, think of it as 20%
If we were valued at 1p before the news and we went up 1p, you'd have doubled your holding
And as mentioned, nothing has actually happened yet - patience is needed for RKH :D
A new solution to the problem which will be quicker to implement, and cost less money
Not the same solution, just quicker and cheaper
Don't want to sound like a party-pooper, because I think this is great news.
However for a bit of balance, what do people think are the potential negatives of todays RNS?
The question is, what do they think they could pay (per share) for RKHs 40%?
Just people taking profit surely
andecc - I understand the sentiment and am sympathetic, but people have to be responsible for their own trades (or lack of)!
Looks like we're getting closer, but still no real details...
How much would we need to gain for the SP to go up 40p? Or are you saying go up TO 40p?
I hope you're right but feels like that is very unlikely
Thanks for your comments
When you say 5:1 you mean that you think there is a 20% chance Sealion will be sanctioned correct?
Marunam, strictly speaking I guess it is binary - it will or won't happen, heads or tails - but that isn't a sensible way to look at something like this surely? You could say the same about playing the lottery and I think everyone on here would admit there's more chance of SL being sanctioned than there is of our numbers coming up!
Long time holder here, and well under water at 36p avg. Been here since before the SL strike and I will admit that although I am able to parse the discussions on here and make some kind of sense of it all, I am not an oily and have no experience in the business so can't make any claims of my own with any confidence - positive or negative.
I have seen posts on here recently, from posters I recognise from way back when and those I am not familiar with saying that Sealion is:
- In the best position it has been to be sanctioned, full steam ahead
- Still probably about 5/1 to go ahead, and a bit of a high stakes gamble
I will admit myself that I had all but written this off as a learning experience, but there is a flicker of light at the end of the tunnel here, and I'm just looking for some simplistic (where possible) breakdowns of each of the above positions (and invariably, other opinions).
So with that in mind, bearing in mind our current position... what are the RKH/Sealion pros and cons? And would you get involved in RKH now, if you weren't already?
I get what people are saying about OM - if we get an award of £100m (still a big if!) then that is twice the current Mcap (give or take), so therefore it makes sense that the price should reflect this. However we have been in this situation before where the SP didn't reflect the cash RKH in the bank because people weren't confident, so I wouldn't be expecting the SP to reflect the award EXACTLY, although I would expect it to have some effect of course - but maybe only 5/6p I fear
I do agree tho that these are much more exciting times than the recent and more distant past and am eager to see what happens here in the meantime!
Can someone explain to me the mentions of Cairn here? I think I've missed something