Member Info for Matml74

Soul,

No one has any idea of what ‘one time’ payments may come in the future so why worry about how it may effect future comparison’s.

Future order book is key to this business and will be the biggest driver in future valuations of the company.

“ As a result these results will get a boast that future and previous ones will be missing.”

And you know this how? There are other elements of the company, ie aviation, where the company is looking to licence out. Licence revenue may come in the future or it may not. No one knows.

This means ultimately there is less dilution by the bond as there is now £2.85m that Avacta is no longer paying interest on.

An excellent result for the company.

“ They will also add another patient if there is a dose limiting toxicity”

If there is a dose limiting toxicity they add 3 new patients. If those 3 get through with no DLT’s they move to next DE cohort.

So there is potential there was a DLT just not cardiotox based on the rns.

Crowfoot,

Go and understand what the trade flags mean and you might be able to deduct what happened. The BENC flag shows it’s a worked trade. This can happen over several days. The other two large trades are just transfers which have no influence on the stock price.

It really doesn’t matter in any case. There is always someone on both sides of the trade.

Gracie, The price rose this week and hit a high if 189 so that would suggest a buy order is being filled IMO but I would suggest don’t focus on these things to much. Stick to focussing on the fundamentals and the rns from 17th Jan which indicates the precision platform mechanism of action works.

Phil,

Again that is incorrect.

There is a chart will actual win royalty volumes. These are confirmed minimum orders.

2.5m 2024
6m 2025
11.9m 2026
10.5m 2027
6m 2028

Overlaid on that chart is the royalty volumes for each year that would occur for the RFQ’s that were currently being bid on as of October 2022. We can assume the win in December was one of those. These rfq’s start to ramp up 2025 onwards.

These show the potential additional revenue if the company wins as it expects and would be additional to current wins.

1.7m 2025
6m 2026
10m 2027
11m 2028
10.5m 2029
9m 2030

So you can work out where this is headed even using a conservative $7 royalty per vehicle.

No words in Paul’s mouth. Clearly spelt out on a simple to read chart!

The first of the 3 large trades (500k+) is flagged BENC which indicates price is formed over multiple instances/timeframes (ie worked using vwap as a benchmark). The second two are flagged tncp so non price forming (ie. Transfer between brokers). From this it seems an MM is filling a large order.

Phil,

Your sums are way out.

Firstly the contract awards are initial lifetime contract values. Paul M has said on several occasions what they see is volume of contracts exceeds the original initial values.

The latest won auto contract values are… “ The cumulative initial lifetime value of all OEM programs that Seeing Machines has won to date now stands at US$321M (A$435M).”

If anyone wants to see exactly what annual auto revenue will be only have to look at Paul’s presentation from October and all the data is in that…….. and the numbers from 2025 onwards are much great than $41m/annum!

“ This not the same as saying “much higher than the levels we would expect to detect in the bloodstream when administering straight Dox at an equivalent dosage “ as peeps keep implying.”

My god you have zero idea of what you are talking about. With straight dox the levels in Tumor and bloodstream are the same FFS!

This comparison of concentration in tumor vs bloodstream is to show the mechanism of action of Ava6000.

Give up!

Absolutely laughable that anyone is so thick to think that what happened with the LFD development has any link or influence on the data being generated from an open label clinical trial being run by independent researchers at some of the countries leading oncology hospitals.

Yes Bella. It is very simple for those who have done any research into this company to understand the significance of that statement. Very exciting indeed.

They can’t and won’t. There will be an rns.

You seem to misunderstand the purpose of finding a MTD. It has no relevance to determination of concentrations of dox in TME.

Determining MTD is essential in designing dosing regimes. Duration of dosing influences MTD because individuals may be less able to tolerate consecutive high doses over long periods of time. MTD for a single administration may be different than the MTD for three or more days of dosing which may be different for MTD for seven days dosing or 28 days dosing etc etc etc

Defining the MTD in a study informs dose setting for all future studies/tumor types etc etc. It is that simple!

……. But is helpful to some to try and convince others that MTD actually relates to TME dox concentration. MTD relates to one thing only and that is TOLERABILITY (the clue is in the name).

It was just over 5 weeks ago they announced a minimum $US35m win. That win was about 10% of the future order book.

Historically they win around 3-5 auto wins a year. They aren’t going to win a contract every 6 weeks!

Totally believable story!

Yes that could be a scenario.

Would have thought an outfit of that calibre would be more interested in taking a 15% stake at a low MCAP for a revolutionary cancer treatment……. having seen how good the data was.

I guess we won’t know until there is potential for a tr1 later this year.

“ I also think it’s the bond being sold. As I said yesterday, they’d make a quick million or so. Who knows what there approach is. ”

The destroys the narrative that to loan the 60 odd million they must have had sight of the data etc etc. If they had sight of the data then surely they would hold their shares at 118p.

IMO there is obviously a fair few short on Avacta (winteeth etc) and this is their push to reduce loss pre science day.

This stock desperately needs a stronger II holding.

Snuppet,

Look at the investor videos the company has put out over the past year. Nothing “timid” about those.

The company has provided plenty of PR since June 2022 and their claim of 50% market share.

It is clear AVA6000 can deliver a therapeutically MEANINGFUL dose of doxorubicin into the tumour tissue while when we measure the concentration in the blood stream at exactly the same time the concentration is very much lower.”