Member Info for Mathurin

It’s bizarre - I am down from 740 on this stock but for some reason I am not annoyed or worried . The only worry would be a cash crunch and this needs to be dispelled end March - It would be interesting to know the level of stock options held by the staff who must be feeling frustrated- it would be good to sense the morale among staff - having been the creme de la creme they must have had their legal egos somewhat deflated- just as long as they don’t decamp to the opposition.
In any case it’s time for boss Bogart to say
a few reassuring words .

I guess we all dreamt of that mythical ocean of oil - who knows. One thing to avoid is the future of Geopark and would hate to see their exploiting all the riches of Amerisur which for unknown reasons Amer didn’t have the drive to exploit . Of course Colombia still faces social challenges- South America is a mess -
But I personally was seduced by JW but the moment he grew that beard I had doubts ! Since my first investment two years ago it has been a rough ride and without the French bid we would no doubt be stuck in the mire of 12p.
Bonne Chance to all !

I have always taken risks and paid dearly and have virtually never put my faith into a stock which took a steady course up from day one . Before investing in Amer I had placed half my funds into the French oil major Total which took on 30% before selling a year ago to buy extra Amer which I had first noticed via Sharehub extolling the likelihood of a future buyout - and paying 20p two years ago .
I only invested in Amer after seeing an interview with JW who seemed to personify sincerity and honesty - in total contrast to the besuited GC with his plummy elocution . Why was I not advised of the short seller lurking in the wings - this must have been common knowledge.
I guess my only lesson learnt from the Amer experience is that we can never foresee events in any share we buy - right now my Amer funds are happily placed with three companies whose shares are down by 50% in the past year.

Renewi has all the signs of success- my prediction is 40p by end January and 50p by end 2020 - that’s only asking for a 40%
appreciation over the coming year . Mark my words .

It is very rarely in the past that I have bought a share ‘ bon pere de famille ‘ - that’s to say a non speculative non glamorous share . After being invested in disreputable AIM listed shares I am happy
to see a decent board of directors and somehow feel that Renewi will ,with patience, give a comfortable performance over the coming year . All it needs is for the institutions start looking at it again after a dismal two year drop and the combination of an Amsterdam listing plus the end of ATM worries should give them reason to start investing again . But the endless question is whether I am happy to hold if the share starts to disappoint - software is so much more exciting than looking at rubbish bins being emptied .

Until recently the SP was stuck around 30p - with this great news you would imagine that this should be rerated by end March to an increase to at least 36p - poor Renewi has been so neglected - so this should awake the market back up to 40p. But will I have courage of my convictions ?

The farewell messages on the ADVN site show the distant comradeship built up over many years of trials and tribulations following the destiny of Amer. Hope springs eternal and over the past two years Amer has mainly been a bitter pill with few reasons to rejoice due in part to the arrogant leadership of GC who has never shown an iota of concern for the retail shareholders and no doubt his clash with the 10% shareholder created much of our misery . My own thanks go to Basilhope and Colonel Drake for their brilliant and helpful comments - I wonder which shares they will next illuminate ?

I sometimes wonder if company management- not just Burford- could give a damn for the desires for information coming from the readers of such chat forums as this . They are too busy trying to do deals and hopefully just hope that their real performance will come to light end March 2020 to rebut all the negativity from Muddy Waters. So I am sure that by end March you will see a SP closer to 850p.

I noticed that a MONACO based investment fund had just increased their holding to over 4% - so perhaps this might be an activist investor to shake things up. But I am convinced that the business should be run from Europe and not just listed in London - I am sure that U.K. investors could not give a hoot for this activity whilst Benelux investors could feel differently but this might need a change in top management . I did notice that chairman Matthews back a year ago did buy £40000 worth at 40p - Did he feel a wind of change for the better ?

I am very very impressed by messages from long time holders for ten and even fifteen years - perhaps dreaming of a ten bagger and instead watching the share crash down to 10p . If only there had been an ocean of oil after Indico 2

Amerisur is a case study where so much was hoped for and so little happened over a two year period - just Indico 1 and the OXY farmout. For a long term holder it is quite simply a tragic deception.

I am bewildered . When Shanks merged with the Dutch there was a projected saving of 40 million £ by now . Since the merger the share price is down from 90p to 27p. The website is basic. The company continues to make a loss .only recently have they appointed new local directors . So for old Shanks shareholders they must be sick . Of course the business had ethical attractions but that won’t make us any money for the moment - but patience may reward ?

As a new investor at Renewi I attempt to sense the future evolution of the group. The first thing I look at is the management and there seems to be a gulf between the London HQ and the Benelux local directors . Where will the future drive come from? What personal investment is held by the CEO ? I notice the CFO has been selling last month, supposedly for tax reasons . Looking at the SP chart I cannot sense where the breakthrough will come from .

One can only assume that JW had lost faith in both Amer and the Indians plus his own drilling record was not brilliantl. Back in London there was noone with any mining experience- Hence a SP going backwards over two years until M&P were sufficiently awake to put in their bid - without which we would probably be still at 12p.

I reluctantly have to ask myself the question ‘ why a better offer was not obtained if the Amer assets are so desirable ‘. The only complaint must therefore be that Amer should have refused the offer and gone on drilling themselves . This is what they should have explained instead of bulldozing the sale .

I see that last Friday sales totaled £760000 against £50000 of buys . It’s astonishing that there has been ZERO communication from Amer on the timeline for shareholders to be paid and the exact dates of what happens next. I visualize GC in his ludicrous pinstripe suit basking at some cricket match and no one capable of any form of helping us shareholders to know whether to stay or get out . The BOD have seen their company languish over the past two years and without the M&P bid in August the share price would surely be still in the doldrums - despite all the wonderful possibilities now seen by Geopark.

As a new investor with Renewi I am happy that the board contributors are clearly investors as opposed to traders - this avoids the assenine comments on other boards where people trade insults and endless criticism of the management- ie total frustration.
With Renewi we have a non-glamorous sector - a major recent upset and little movement in the share . My main concern is how can you run a Benelux business from London - why not run it from Amsterdam. And who chose the name ‘Renewi ‘ - it sounds like an Italian pasta . I get the ‘ renew’ bit but why the Italian finish. To resume I expect this share to take on 20% over two years ,little downside , no one knows when the soil issue is cleared , a 3% dividend, low PE.
Where there is muck there is brass - I must somehow have this in mind to invest .

Noone has ever analyzed how come that M & P came out of the blue with their 17.5p offer which within one day set off the Strategic Review . It is quite possible that this M+P offer was set up/encouraged by GC/JW to give them an
immediate sale of Amer - otherwise what was the strategy of MP knowing that their offer was likely to be turned down ?

What in your opinion are the risks waiting to get an extra 3%?

A SHORT SURVEY to all

1. Your hoped for price (mine was 30p)
2. Your immediate reaction to that early morning RNS with the offer at 19.2 - in one word ( mine is ‘stunned’)
3. What would you have done with your hoped-for profit - two replies - 3-fantasy reply and 4- realistic reply
( my no3 fantasy would be to fly to Las Vegas for a wild weekend and blow £10000
( my no 4 realistic reply- ‘carry on trying to be clever on stockmarket and probably lose a great deal more than £10000‘

Finally the lesson if any you learnt from investing in Amerisur- No5

( my reply - ‘ with 600000 shares this is my last ever stockmarket investment chasing the ‘golden nugget’)