Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
It doesn't really matter what we gain or lose short term, unless you are trying to trade.
What matters is whether after the results what CCL decides to do about debt reduction. No new action needed (good). Issue more shares (bad). Issue more long term debt at high rates (quite bad).
The SP is (rightly IMHO) where it is because of these possibilities.
bot - That explains why the Ave Pax per ship for RCL is only 2300 in my figures - less than their main brand's smallest ship. The 59 ships must include the tiny ones.
In fact, of course it makes the comparison even more favourable for CCL.
Our day in the sun will eventually arrive!
Final thought on the outlook for today.
Why is it that the city/Wall street are valuing CCL much less than RCL/NCLH?
It must be due to the debt repayments, the worry about further dilution. Give a dog a bad name, so don't lend him money at sensible rates, then the dog does become a dog! (to mix metaphors)
The rates lent to CCL have always appeared higher than to RCL for example.
I think this also explains some of the extreme volatility of CCL and the others. Sentiment is calling the tune on the debt management/ share issues etc. and as sentiment changes the fortunes of the companies will actually change too.
So what about operating capacity?
Figures from recent dates: CCL 220k lower berths, NCLH 60k and RCL 140k.
Number of ships: CCL around 90, NCLH around 30 and RCL around 60.
Potentially Mcap of CCL could be 50% higher than RCL (ie x1.5) and 200% higher than NCLH (ie x 3).
But we may have to wait 5 years, until the debts are mostly paid off.
I've just found a page I stashed away at the beginning of the pandemic price slumps.
It's really amazing how the 3 companies have fared (SP wise) in the last 4 years.
March 2019 - before any hint of problems ahead: CCL $57, NCLH $55 and RCL $120
High points during the year: CCL $57, NCLH $60 and RCL $120.
Now we have today: CCL $10.36, NCLH $14.54 and RCL $70
CCL have had two 10% dilutions, I don't know about the others. But still where's the logic? the risk? the recovery going to be? I'm sticking to CCL. The other SPs are crazy in comparison.
Can't we just accept the the majority opinion amongst analysts and fund managers is that the risk/fundamentals etc of the stock currently imply a lowly SP.
However, as they gradually improve their opinions, the SP will rise.
My eoy target for 2023 is only 862p.
I fully expect that this will be exceeded sometime , probably soon, but there are so many unknown factors to ponder over that a retrace seems very likely. There is still a load of debt to service and pay off that events like debt restructure or share issues are likely to happen again, and will drag down the SP. Beware of SP running ahead of itself!
£12?? Not for a few years, I suspect.