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I'd decided £11 was my buy target weeks ago. So I doubled my holding on Friday, expecting a further slide!
But then botbot comes to the rescue with his much bigger sell!
How unfair investing is. We can't guess which way the market will turn, so my advice is - make a plan and stick to it. CCL will rise or fall on any given day, but you'll make money in the long run.
Freetrade Vs ajbell.
The bad thing about freetrade is that you are trading blind on the free account. They don't ask you to agree a set price. Ajbell give you 15 secs to execute once price quoted. You can see live price change at the same time. But it's 9.95 or 4.95 a trade.
Now for something completly different. I was amazed to see the Ocean Majesty in port at Lerwick on Saturday.
It brought back happy memories of my first cruise over 20 years ago, and was what got me hooked on cruising. I remember the ship as being rather old at the time, and thought it would be scrapped when Page and Moy were taken over.
Not so. It's now 57 years old and still going! I bet none of the current Carnival ships will ever last thtat long! I won't be around to find out.
Anyone remember this name?
Back in 2014 Sar had an equity swap arrangement with them (which was terminated early).
Sar is no newcomer to this type of funding arrangement. I didn't like it at the time, and was glad when some normal placings occurred later.
During the time of the arrangement the sp dropped by about 35%, but subsequently increased again after good news. I don't think lth's need worry if this happens again, but there is still the feeling that the likes of RiverFort are the Wonga of the investment world.
I suspect the lack of cash from 737 is the reason for the funding now. Nothing to do with 1801 since they are not expecting cash from a successful p1a. So knowledge of progress of this trial has no bearing on timing of funding.
Dorset. Read the RNS carefully. If they sell below 102 they will ask for more new shares. 102 is simply a reference price to estimate how many shares might be needed to repay loan. If say sp drops 20% they then can sell 25% more shares to cover the remainder of the loan. It's not a pretty arrangement. But it may be what the Bod want.
I've now had time to reread the RNS to try to understand what the company has decided to do.
It seems to me that RiverFort don't need to be too discerning as to the type of company it lends to or the area of business it operates in. It is guaranteed to make a good turn on its loan whatever happens to the shareprice of the victim company.
In the main companies take this type of loan when they can't or don't want to raise money in the usual way. Often they regard shareholder value wirh low priority, and consequently we often get a death spiral. Here the proportion of new shares is relatively low, so we may nowt get too much of a negative impact on the sp.
One good thing about the event is its timing. When(if) good news hits after good results, then the lower fixed price kicks in, and I guess the loan will then be paid off quickly. Better than a placing after the good news. However what I'm not sure about is whether a placing now at a discount would have had a worse or better impact on the SP.
But, in the big scale of things, it won't make much difference if the drugs are successful or 737 has a good deal.
We were lucky to get past the double decker on our way to the glacier, there was a crowd hanging around the bus. Must have sent a replacement, since our big delay was on the way back, about 3 hours later. I wonder whether they ever got to Briksdal?
AParky. Lovely trip. We were glad back in May we used the PO tour, since we were an hour late back. Why? the glacier sightseeing bus had gone off the road, was tilted at an angle of about 20 from the vertical, and it took for ever to get it back on the road. Meanwhile no traffic got past.
Indeed. Where do we go next?
I have done some number crunching, involving comparing sp and market cap from 2018 onwards.
If CCL is ever to surpass its max mcap (c$50b in early 2018) the sp will need to get to $39.50 or £28. There are now 76% more shares in issue than early 2018.
I reckon that this sort of sp will only be reached when enough of the debt is cleared to start paying decent dividends again. This will take 5 or more years in all likelihood.
So £28 seems a fair long term target for CCL, given no new major upsets . In the short term , I reckon anything over £13.75 would bring us into overbought territory. There's a long way to go until £28.
I read an interesting article about the cost of package holidays to popular destinations. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66042289
Most destinations now over £1000 per person per week for land based holiday. As a result cruises offer increasing value, meaning one or both of two things.
More demand. Higher cruise prices soon. Both good news for investors and the SP.