RE: Morning all4 Nov 2025 08:51
Summary Assessment
• Event-driven upside is strong: ~2-3x market
cap if approved.
• Probability-weighted expected value supports
a buy at current levels for short-term event
play.
• Downside risk is limited: rejection likely only
reduces market cap back to ~£17m, with
conditional approvals possibly just delaying
rerate.
• Time horizon: Very short (~weeks), which
aligns with an event-driven trading strategy
rather than a long-term hold,
Bottom line:
From a purely risk-reward perspective, investing
at £17m market cap with the MiCA decision
imminent next month looks compeling - it is
essentially a binary, high-probability upside
scenario with limited downside.