Member Info for Mars1

Soup just been out and about. Not a problem and not one for me to solve. It boils down to requirements there are only 2 drugs with substantial side effects. The FDA also has emergency approval procedures for drugs that are in need. How many pharma exist that will go for a slice of the IPF revenue in the US with a very low up front investment say £50m instead of £1bn so low risk for an existing drug. With growing lung issues (6.5msurvivors from Covid) should be a lot of interest

The IPF market is worth $4.2bn per annum. There are 2 major drugs serving the market. NXP002 trials outperformed both. If either NXP002 or NXP004 are taken up and achieve a 25% market share on standard royalties one drug alone on a p/e 10 will be worth £5 per share.

Although an EU deal was in place prior to the direct deal done I wonder if the EU deal was in play over the last few months. Question is would import license be granted knowing the trade agreement was under notice. Bit like a passport has in some countries have a minimum of 6mths to gain access to some countries. Equally U.K. govt may want to point to some successful trade wins so export licenses may have been on hold. Unlike Lord Beckwith to say the deal is worth a lot to the pharma industry is he talking generally or is he aware of deals pending?

Presumably this takes ODX to 1m tests a week. 500k in Alva and a similar number in Littleport as we know up to 46k a day Elisa tests for Mologic plus other products at Littleport

Soup thanks can’t say I am up to speed on int’l agreements but would have thought the EU agreement would at some point have ceased therefore this new arrangement would remove that uncertainty

In addition we had the announcement the tracing app is being launched on 24th Sept so any testing now performed will generate significant information

Tariff reductions and mutual cooperation

Richard Torbett
@TorbettR
·
20h
Replying to
@JimBethell
It’s particularly appreciated that the deal includes a mutual recognition agreement on medicines. Great news and looking forward to supporting more trade deals. Thanks to
@trussliz

@tradegovuk

Just spoke to a friend (very reliable) whose neighbour works in a hospital, caught Covid 19 early on when on holiday in France. He is taking the antibody test every 3 months as part of the check to see how long antibodies last.

The ABC test of course is already MHRA approved for professional use so the difficult technical bit is done. The BBI tweet gave it away. The use ability test gave instant results a range of users could do it or not. Has the MHRA said go and the RTC are on hold or is it taking the Regulator 4 days to review test results that took 2 days to produce and say the obvious.

Boris just shown on ITV news referring to the 15 min pregnancy test that tells you whether you have had corona virus

Catch 22 need to chase MHRA give public access to tests so they don’t flog up lab process

So far taken as long for MHRA to review the usability test with data/results handed to them on a plate, as it took to do the test. 100% and increasing.

ODX have already stated current capacity increasing to 2m tests per week. So 104m x£3 = Covid revenue of £312m. On a 2x Quest Diagnostics value that’s £624m for Covid. Test costs are higher than £3. Others will be more on the ball.

This was posted yesterday and I am a little surprised everyone is assuming that the Govt are only carrying out saliva tests.
https://apple.news/AT5w8_cOiR9OWok-uaEd0_w
It clearly says that the Govt is spending £500m on saliva tests and a 20min test not saliva tests including a 20 min test. So that 20 min test could be an antibody test. Also this article was clear it was extended tests of those where tests had already been performed. How many 20 min tests are there that are that advanced.

Plenty of US connections with ODX and Mologic in Clinton and Gates so plenty of scope in all sorts of options in the States

In the hands of govt to say yeh . It will be all about mass production Keeping up with demand and probably also reporting results To the central database

Imagine one blood withdrawal and two tests have you got it, have you had it, results in 10 mins.

Irrespective of the Heathrow news it is news that ODX now has an antigen poc test available price should fly

Downside with Virolens it uses a microscope analysis how do you avoid contamination between tests

Anyone know which test Collinson is using it sounds like an Elisa test (7hrs for results) latest trial is to work alongside.