Member Info for MarquessR

Thanks for the post MagicFinance. Could you confirm the source for future reference / further reading? Many thanks.

I'm holding HLN as a split from my GSK holdings, and trying to decide whether or not to add to them. For me it would likely be a long term hold, expecting low-medium capital value growth and steady dividends (After the first couple of years as the company finds it feet, so to speak). Obviously the current Debt/Equity ratio is a cause for concern.

From the recent results release I note the following point (Page 2) '...and Net debt/EBITDA below 3x
by the end of 2024.

Current Debt/Equity stands at 40%.

My back of a fag packet math puts HLN's current Net Debt / EBITDA at 5.02. So for HLN to hit below 3, they must be looking at change in cash & equivalents growth, Net Debt pay down and/or EBITDA growth.

The fact HLN have identified a Net debt/EBITDA target and put a date on it gives me confidence that they aren't just putting their heads in the sand and ignoring that particular problem. Personally this moves me towards a weak buy from hold.

Any other thoughts? Comments?

I guess it really depends how much squeeze we are looking at. What gives me greater confidence is that (IMO) it boils down to macro economic factors, rather than a failing of the company. The quote in the report runs something like

'operating margin ... is expected to be slightly down'

Given the global operating environment I'd be surprised if it wasn't TBH.

They can be used in shops if they have enough change. Oh boy that’s a good one! The average retailer here goes into a meltdown if they see a £50 note, can you imagine the reaction of slapping one of those bad boys down on the counter ??

I’m guessing based on the fall of the spot gold price again this morning?

But yes, bad results and a falling gold price would have been painful.

Well don’t I feel like a spanner now!

Thanks Budd.

I am somewhat surprised to see the share listing go live, but no company website, financial calendar etc. Maybe I am expecting too much, or missing something?

I haven't been involved (as an investor) in a similar situation before. Any thoughts when we might start to see Haleon as a separate entity?

Mine are showing. Using Degiro.

Roll on the future!

Its felt long road, but for better or worse here we are!

Some more details RE the share buy-back , care of SimplyWallStreet.

Redrow plc (LSE:RDW) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to £100 million worth of its shares. The program is structured in two tranches. In respect of the first tranche of the program, the company has entered into a non-discretionary agreement with Peel Hunt LLP to purchase shares up to a maximum consideration of £50 million. The second tranche of the program will be undertaken by Barclays Bank PLC to purchase shares up to a maximum consideration of £50 million. The primary purpose of the program is to reduce the share capital of the company. The majority of the shares repurchased under the buyback will be cancelled and a portion of the shares will be held in treasury. The first tranche of the program will end no later than February 18, 2023, the second tranche will begin as soon as the first tranche is complete and end no later July 31, 2023.

Good timing it the SP see’s a drop in value over Q3-Q4 due to Macro economic factors, more shares bought back in the first tranche, but might just balance out the 2nd half.

I concur SP increase due to share buyback. I’m holding out on more share purchases at the moment, I think there is more of a dip due heading into Q3, but that’s just my guess.

My gut interpretation is that the initial impact on the SP (especially once the lock up period ends) will be a negative one, but Pfizer are in the Pharma / Biotech space (like GSK) and not in the selling consumer (healthcare) staples business (a'la ULVR) which is what Haleon is aiming to be.

Once the lock-up and sell off is done, the focus can return to Haleon doing what it was set up to do and run on its own legs. So if you think there is a good future in consumer healthcare staples and it fits your portfolio, one to keep / buy more. If it doesn't then one to divest yourself of.

Seaking1, Id be (genuinely) interested in why you think it's a good omen?

Im glad I am not the only one struggling on the garden front. My runner beans are yet to put in an appearance yet! Hopefully they are just like my CEY dividend, delayed, but eventually forthcoming!

Interesting point, I hadn’t thought about the possibility of ULVR coming back again. My gut says not going to happen after the storm that followed the last offer, and now having Peltz onboard.

Sotonspike, I think you are right RE Haleon, certainly one to watch. With both GSK and Pfizer wanting to offload its stake, and a heavy debt pile heading into a period of consumer slowdown, I think the SP is going to head south once the launch hype and lock-up period wears off. I see options being;

1) Hold, collect dividends, accumulate at a lower SP if it suits your portfolio.
2) Sell early, add again at a lower SP.
3) Sell and invest elsewhere.

Normally option 1 would be my go to (early stage investor), but the more I read the more I am swayed to option 2.

Missed this update, but it looks like progress continues on the Southern Division office. News story posted on the 24/05/22. Go live date is 'July'. Target remains at 600 homes PA.

Link - https://www.redrowplc.co.uk/news/latest-news/corporate/redrow-southern-debuts-a-better-way-to-work-with-first-look-at-new-divisional-office/

I think it might have been something broader in the market. Multiple elements of my portfolio (GSK / ULVR / CEY) all did the same thing from about 14:30 on. Gold also had a similar bounce.

Thank you for the clear and informative response Siko!

I’ve just had an email through from the portfolio management tool I use suggesting that the dividend will be €0.71 (£0.60 at todays exchange rate). Ex-dividend 08/07/22, payment on 02/08/22.

I’m surprised it’s being paid TBH.

I would suggest doing some reading of your own and then talking to a financial advisor, to me at least 100K is not an insignificant amount of money and I would not invest it based on the opinions of a few random people on the internet.

As you have said, you already have shares in a number of established companies that pay dividends. You could start by looking at their growth and dividend payments to see if historically they have generated the returns you want. I am going to hazard a guess and same consistently it is unlikely as many of these British based companies dont enjoy the same growth returns as companies listed on the American exchanges.