Member Info for MarquessR

Hmmm. This is not ageing well at the moment. How low can we go!

Not to my knowledge. Just H1 and FY.

Greetings all.

I have been re-reviewing the HY financial report, as I am considering increasing my position in RDW. One point of interest that I had not noticed before was the startup of a Southern Division.

Source - 2022 Half Year Report (Pg. 4) https://investors.redrowplc.co.uk/sites/redrow-ir/files/investor/reports-and-presentations/2022/redrow-half-yearly-report-2022.pdf

'We have appointed the leadership team for our new Southern division, which will open this summer and is currently acquiring its first sites. '

A quick Google search turns up the following news element from Redrow posted last year

Source - https://www.redrow.co.uk/newsroom/national/2021/6/redrow-launches-new-southern-division

'Covering Surrey and East and West Sussex, the new Southern division will sit separately to our existing Southern Counties and South East divisions and will be headed up by recently appointed Managing Director, Rod Martin, former Divisional Managing Director at Taylor Wimpey for this area. At maturity, the new division aims to build 600 new homes, annually, ...'

Depending on how quickly they can reach maturity, that equates to another 10% extra annual completions, and given the higher than average cost of house prices in the area, this may have a more pronounced effect on the average completion price for RDW overall.

A good bit of news in my book. Helping to counterbalance some of the risks of inflation / stagflation.

Hopefully as informed shareholders we can use this ongoing opportunity to acquire (should it sort portfolios to do so) , knowing that a turnaround is underway and whilst the results don’t stack up against last year at face value, we know the reasons why, and that progress is being made by the CEO and company to deliver on the planned changes, which should result in an improvement of fortunes?

I’m going to take a stab and say the market will not be happy with the results. Forward promises are all well and good, but on paper results are what matters (in my limited experience) and the numbers don’t stack up well, for the variety of reasons well discussed on this forum.

I think Sotolo has it right. Minimum for 2022 FY will be 5c

Late H1 2022. I imagine a better update is due at the FY results later this month.

Source - May 2021 - https://www.centamin.com/media/2385/cey_rns_solar-contract-awards_final_040521.pdf

They said they had a plan for dealing with this just prior to (or during) the start of the invasion. I imagine (from the general impression of the business) the whole management team is probably working round the clock to minimise risk to its staff. Not much else they can do in the middle of a war. If you can stomach the risk there must be a buying opportunity here, even if you write off the Russian and Ukrainian segments of the business.

I won’t do your reading for you, but the information you need is here

https://www.coca-colahellenic.com/content/dam/cch/us/documents/investors-and-financial/results-reports-and-presentations/2022/FY2021/Coca-Cola-HBC-FY2021-presentation-22Feb2022.pdf.downloadasset.pdf

Because CCH produces and distributes in both Ukraine and Russia; with Russia accounting for a fair chunk of CCH’s developing market segment (IIRC, it might be under a different segment name)

CCH factory in Ukraine is shuttered. Not sure what the situation is in Russia, but the market is very sensitive to anything financial in Russia.

Regular old Coca Cola has a much broader market base, where as CCH will be significantly more impacted if I understand the situation correctly.

I bought after the first dip, and appear to have made a somewhat expensive short term mistake. Who knows if it will turn into a long term mistake.

Primary driver will be the ongoing war in Ukraine, along with further general sanctions against Russia . 10-11% today seems OTT, but that’s the market I guess. CCH has other markets, and things will no doubt improve over time, got to be a buy / hold I’d say.

Once over the weekend, and again this morning, I visited the Royal Mint website to check the spot price of gold. On both occasions I’ve had to wait in a virtual line to get on to the website which I haven’t experienced before.

Got to be a low key bullish indicator?)

Should have waited. Doh.

£21.85 for me. Could have done better, but a reasonable price I think. Down 10/11% on the week is well overdone IMO.

BOD proposes ordinary dividend of €0.71 per share and aims to increase dividend payout ratio to 40-50% , up from 35-40%.

Results look good to me, but I think the SP will get smacked again today with the news. CCH operates in both Russia and Ukraine.

I think there could be a bargain to be had in the next couple of days in terms of the share price, but with some significant short term risk.

I recognise this is a cold statement and does not reflect the impact that conflict in the region will have on the lives of individuals. My comment is made solely in relation to a financial view point.

Just as a follow up, the extract below is taken from the 2022 Half Year results (posted 10/02/2022)

As we are predominantly a builder of family detached houses, we have only developed a relatively small number
of high rise apartment schemes. However, as a consequence of the widening in scope of buildings concerned and more detailed cost estimates for the work required, we have increased our fire safety provision by £10m to £36m. This provision is for the estimated remediation of buildings for which we are the Principal Contractor. The level of this provision will be reassessed as work progresses, Government legislation or regulation changes as a result of the above announcement or if the Group makes any further commitments with respect to this matter. We do believe the whole industry should play its part in tackling the cladding issue but in a fair and proportionate way.

FY financial results are due tomorrow, should hold some details.

Just flicking through the news updates on Simply Wall Street and saw this post. I haven’t seen it mentioned here yet, which surprises me, have I missed it?

Unilever PLC (LSE:ULVR) is splitting off its highly political Ben & Jerry's ice cream business from the rest of its food brands in a move that experts said could make it easier to pursue a sale. The company will divide its food business in two, with ice cream, which also includes Magnum and Solero, to be separated from its nutrition unit, which will house brands such as Marmite, Hellmann's mayonnaise and Knorr stock cubes.

Barclays follows up with another overweight rating, maintaining a target SP of 840GBX

RDW was one of my better lockdown era investments, though the SP has fallen in recent weeks, presumably of the back of inflation figures, headlines over paying for cladding failures and broader stock market movements in the last week due to the increased global tensions.

As far as I am aware, RDW has no constructions that have fallen foul of the serious flammable cladding issue. With headlines suggesting the GOV was going to force House builders (in general) to pay for replacements, i wasnt sure if RDW had any real risk exposure on this front and does the current SP reflect a buying oppertunity.

I suppose some broad sector wide fee / tax / levy could be imposed on all builders to cover the costs, but I cant imagine firms like RDW (If they dont have any responsibility for putting up flammable cladding) would accept it without a fight.

Thoughts?