Member Info for Markyess

From speaking with DR in November, the Manganese play is of equal, if not greater value to DR than Calidus. From a division of responsibilities perspective, his time is better spent on Australian gold with RL focused on Manganese.

Don't get fooled into believing DR has 'moved on' from Keras.

That's just shares in the names of the directors. Their family and friends jointly hold another few percent

I truly get the despondency as a long term investor. I would not take the delay as an indicator of anything other than the impacts of the global pandemic.

I've said before, I'll say it again - we're dealing with a developing world country, led by a dictator. He is not going to be influenced by speed (and modern technological approaches) he is going to want a photo opportunity, with himself front and centre, shaking the hands of the company's 'main man' in the flesh.

We just need to be patient. As annoying and frustrating as that it. In the global sense, and against the backdrop of Covid 19 - we are irrelevant.

I don't know if you saw - Togo have extended their Covid-19 measures to mid-August.

It will depend if the reciprocal guidelines still class the UK as red!

At Calidus Towers, yet more progress with the major tenders issued and debt adviser appointed.

I’d settle for even a slightly drippy tap of news from Keras at the moment!

My blood pressure went stratospheric by word 5....

That's the UK in general - not our esteemed South African CEO! :-D

I understand the frustration, but I think PC has put it perfectly.

Let's not forget, we're not dealing with a first world, developed country that would be happy to just get it done with the least path of resistance, this is a developing world country, led by a pseudo dictator who is going to want the production of jobs to be a big event that he is front and centre of.

This will HAVE to be a face-to-face event to generate the positive local PR - and that of course cannot happen until the dirty man of Europe can prove it is dealing with Covid-19 suitably to be allowed to travel.

Initial LOM up from 6 years to 8 years - and a slight/immaterial increase in AISC accordingly. Those revised/realigned profit projections look juicy in line with more accurate price of gold figures.

I'm really interested to see how we are going to finance this. With the model likely to be 70/30 debt/equity ratio, we'll need to source around ~$36m outside of debt finance. Anyone else notice the tone change from corporate financing to 'project financing'...? Expect to see some rapid efforts to prove up some corporate value at Otways....

I can see us moving forward with a JV with Alkane who are regularly reported as having oodles of free cash float.

Clinging to a comment that was made in the investor event in November, I reckon there'll be a little dilution on Calidus (maybe in the region of 10% - $12m), and some clever hedging/third party involvement as alluded to above to fill the remainder of the non-debt finance hole.

Now - on to Keras - come on Mr Gnassingbe - give us that license. I want to see 2020 as the year that our patience is universally rewarded on both gold AND manganese plays!

Welcome. What newsflow are you looking forward to? Do you have any short/medium term expectations?

Many of us have been in Keras for yonks (as far back as the Ferrex days...) so if you have any questions on the past, feel free!

Having been in since July 2011, Richard, the sleepiness is no surprise to me.

This probably won't bounce until it is literally screaming in the face of the herd.

Cheers Jim, thanks for posting and clarifying. It helps to focus the mind and show the value.

The fundamentals and proximity to production are undeniable.

We're still vastly undervalued and have been since the Calidus divestiture - even license pending. I'm sure St Brides stated that Nayega was worth ~0.40p of it's own volition with BFS in pocket?

Immediate.

In the words of Russell Lamming (November Investor presentation), 'you will struggle to comprehend just how simple and low cost production at Nayega is.'

We have already completed a bulk sample exercise. The site is on care and maintenance, pending being given to literally pick the tools back up.

We were hoping to be in production towards the end of Q1 2020, that was delayed by some of the admin in Publicly listing Societe Generale Des Mines in Togo, and then of course, our friend, Covid-19.

Per the last RNS, there is no administrative obstacle to obtaining the full license on the Keras side of the fence now. It will be down to how forward thinking the Togolese government are - if they insist on the sign off being formal and in person (remember, they are a developing Third World country) - then we'll be restricted by travel restrictions on UK residents. If they're open to thinking in a modern fashion (and the local population start getting twitchy for the promised jobs that have been public knowledge for a lengthy amount of time) - then we could see it sooner.

There's no doubt on it happening, it's just whether it's sooner or later.

Safely? No. Sentiment towards Keras has always defied logic. I was reluctant to use a P/E as high as 9 initially.

Once we pay a dividend, I would suggest that there'd be a more solid foundation to support a higher P/E Ratio, but I wouldn't want to build it into current investment projections of decision making.

Here, here. I'd like to get my grubby mitts on another million or five.

IDWID - for 2022, I used a simple £0.75/DMTU profit margin.

For 2021, I used £1.50/DMTU for the lower volume production based on the $2.60 AISC and spot price on Jupiter Mines website. I had that reducing down to £0.75/DMTU by month 8 to reflect the corporate investment and increase in AISC as production ramps up.

I also applied an efficiency percentage on tonnage/DMTU that progressively improved as production grew, and to reflect the more efficient plant usage in Phase 2 (move to 300k tonnes/p.a)

Both DR and RL have a lot of friends and family members invested. They were both talking about it in the investment event in November.

Their feet are held firmly to the fire by the ones they love. They were quite open that Calidus would have been more profitable for them under a separate vehicle, but they felt obligated to run it through Keras due to those that have stuck by them, which is why they also continue to look for other opportunities under the Keras banner.

The ridiculous spread doesn't help.